基于智能电网技术的能源网络供应链买电策略研究

智能电网的提出不仅是电网技术本身发展的需要，更是各国能源和经济发展战略层面的需要。可再生能源作为清洁能源的突出代表，其分布式发电系统是智能电网发展的必然趋势。但是，由于天气等因素导致的可再生能源高度不确定性和间歇性却给智能电网系统的稳定带来很大挑战。为了应对这一挑战，并发挥可再生能源的成本优势，本文从微观运营的角度，研究带有可再生能源供给的"多对多"能源网络供应链的买电决策问题，求得能源集成商的最优买电量，以及能源短缺成本、发电厂产能、可再生能源不确定性等参数对最优解的影响。本文发现，发电厂产能对能源集成商使用可再生能源的策略有直接影响。并且，可再生能源产能较大的能源集成商因为规避不确定性风险反而会提高买电量。本文的结论能帮助智能电网节省用电成本，为实现节约型、可靠型和稳定型电网系统提供一定参考。     

Mapping and managing productive organizational energy over time: The Energy Pattern Explorer tool

To strategically manage the deployment of collective human resources toward performance, managers must recognize, interpret, and align the volatile resources of productive organizational energy. Despite relevant prior work, research and practice still lack a comprehensive approach toward analyzing and managing energy patterns over time. We develop a framework for temporal configurations and prototypical trajectories of productive organizational energy. We then introduce the ‘Energy Pattern Explorer’ as a strategy tool to: (1) identify and predict actual patterns of productive organizational energy in organizations, and (2) suggest energy leadership activities specific to current and anticipated changes and patterns of productive organizational energy. We provide examples of how managers can use this tool and conclude with suggestions for research and practice.     

Stemming the downturn: How ambidexterity and public policy influence firm performance stability during economic crises

A key question confronting policy makers during economic crises is how they can support firms to maintain their performance levels until the economic storm has passed. The present study bridges insights from the ambidexterity and public policy literatures to examine how firm-internal responses (that is, ambidexterity) and external public policy incentives (that is, demand-pull policies) affect the stability of firms’ performance in a recessionary economic context. Using data from private German renewable energy firms at a time following the global financial crisis, we find that only firms with low ambidexterity achieve performance stability in light of demand-pull policies. This research draws attention to the relevance of stability as a policy-relevant performance measure during times of economic crises. Further, we suggest that greater insight into the interplay of managerial and political factors is necessary to enable policy makers to support the stability of certain industries during crises.     

A simple condition for the multivariate CLT and the attraction to the Gaussian of Lévy processes at long and short times

We show that a necessary and sufficient condition for the sum of iid random vectors to converge (under appropriate centering and scaling) to a multivariate Gaussian distribution is that the truncated second moment matrix is slowly varying at infinity. This is more natural than the standard conditions, and allows for the possibility that the limiting Gaussian distribution is degenerate (so long as it is not concentrated at a point). We also give necessary and sufficient conditions for a d-dimensional Lévy process to converge (under appropriate centering and scaling) to a multivariate Gaussian distribution as time approaches zero or infinity.     

On maxima of chi-processes over threshold dependent grids

In this paper, with motivation from Piterbarg VI [Discrete and continuous time extremes of Gaussian processes. Extremes. 2004;7(2):161–177] and the considerable interest in stationary chi-processes, we derive asymptotic joint distributions of maxima of stationary strongly dependent chi-processes on a continuous time and a uniform grid on the real axis. Our findings extend those for Gaussian cases and give three involved dependence structures via the strongly dependence condition and the sparse, Pickands and dense grids.     

Some limit theorems of delayed sums for rowwise conditionally independent stochastic arrays

This paper is concerned with the asymptotic property of delayed sums for rowwise conditionally independent stochastic arrays. The main technique of the proofing is to construct non negative random variables with one parameter and to apply the Borel–Cantelli lemma to obtaining almost everywhere convergence. The relevant results for non homogeneous Markov chains indexed by a tree are extended.     

Civil Society in an Age of Environmental Accountability: How Local Environmental Nongovernmental Organizations Reduce U.S. Power Plants’ Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Institutional scholars have argued that in the absence of legislation on the issue of climate change, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) can help reduce the amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gases being emitted to the environment by disseminating environmental norms. Consistent with this reasoning, they have shown that from the middle of the last century up through the mid‐1990s, nations with more memberships in NGOs have tended to have lower carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the aggregate. Doubts remain, however, about whether NGOs have reduced emissions in the time since and at the level of individual power plants where the lion's share of carbon pollution is emitted. Using plant‐specific information on CO₂ emissions recently collected by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under its Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, we investigate the effects of local environmental NGOs (ENGOs) on plants’ environmental performance. Consistent with our expectations, we find that local ENGOs not only directly reduce plants’ emissions but indirectly do so by enhancing the effectiveness of subnational climate policies that encourage energy efficiency. We discuss the implications of our findings for research on the decoupling of normative systems, social movements, environmental sociology, and the EPA's proposed Clean Power Plan.     

Inference for random coefficient INAR(k) with the occasional level shift random noise based on dual empirical likelihood

The INAR(k) model has been widely used in various kinds of fields. However, there are little discussions about the INAR(k) model with the occasional level shift random noise. In this paper, the maximum likelihood estimation of parameter based on martingale difference sequence is given, the log empirical likelihood ratio test statistic is obtained and the test statistic converges to chi-square distribution, we prove that the confidence region of the parameter is convex. Furthermore, the numerical simulation of the proposed INAR(k) model is given, which illustrates the effectiveness of the model. Then, the proofs of asymptotic results are given in the Appendix.     

基于突变理论的油气井出砂预测新方法

根据弹塑性力学理论建立了考虑渗流情况下的油气井井眼围岩的势能函数，以该势能函数为基础，应用突变理论的尖点突变模型研究油气井的出砂物理过程，进而建立了出砂预测的全新数学模型，求取无砂生产的临界流速，并在此基础上对影响出砂的敏感性因素进行了分析。首次引入突变理论对油气井出砂机理进行分析，建立了无砂生产临界流速的全新求解方法。实例表明该模型的计算结果可靠，敏感性分析表明塑性区的污染是出砂的主要原因。相对以往出砂预测模型，该模型考虑的因素更多，计算结果更可靠。应用突变理论研究油气井出砂机理为出砂预测提供了新的研究方法。     

能源金融：内涵及需要研究的问题

论文在对能源金融的内涵进行界定的基础上,就能源金融领域研究的主要问题及研究思路进行了分析.笔者认为,目前我国能源金融的研究应从三个方面开展.一是研究能源产业金融安全及风险防范机制与管理方法;二是研究能源产业自主创新金融措施和政策保障体系;三是研究成立专业性的能源金融机构的必要性、可行性及经营管理模式.