Some Recent Developments in Econometric Inference

Abstract

Recent results in information theory, see Soofi (1996; 2001) for a review, include derivations of optimal information processing rules, including Bayes' theorem, for learning from data based on minimizing a criterion functional, namely output information minus input information as shown in Zellner (1988; 1991; 1997; 2002). Herein, solution post data densities for parameters are obtained and studied for cases in which the input information is that in (1) a likelihood function and a prior density; (2) only a likelihood function; and (3) neither a prior nor a likelihood function but only input information in the form of post data moments of parameters, as in the Bayesian method of moments approach. Then it is shown how optimal output densities can be employed to obtain predictive densities and optimal, finite sample structural coefficient estimates using three alternative loss functions. Such optimal estimates are compared with usual estimates, e.g., maximum likelihood, two‐stage least squares, ordinary least squares, etc. Some Monte Carlo experimental results in the literature are discussed and implications for the future are provided.     

NEW LARGE SAMPLE AND BOOTSTRAP METHODS ON SHAPE SPACES IN HIGH LEVEL ANALYSIS OF NATURAL IMAGES

This paper, dedicated to the 80th birthday of Professor C. R. Rao, deals with asymptotic distributions of Fréchet sample means and Fréchet total sample variance that are used in particular for data on projective shape spaces or on 3D shape spaces. One considers the intrinsic means associated with Riemannian metrics that are locally flat in a geodesically convex neighborhood around the support of a probability measure on a shape space or on a projective shape space. Such methods are needed to derive tests concerning variability of planar projective shapes in natural images or large sample and bootstrap confidence intervals for 3D mean shape coordinates of an ordered set of landmarks from laser images.     

Subjective probability and the dfr-mixture closure theorem

It is well known that mixtures of DFR distributions are themselves DFR. The IFR class, on the other hand, is not closed under mixture, We present a simple new proof which gives insight into the result from a subjective stand-point.     

Optimum Mixture Design for the Detection of Synergistic Effects

In mixture experiments, optimal designs for the estimation of parameters, both linear and non-linear, have been discussed by several authors. Optimal designs for the estimation of a subset of parameters have also been investigated. However, designs for testing the effects of certain factors and interactions have been studied only in the context of response surface models. In this article, we attempt to find the optimum design for testing the presence of synergistic effects in a mixture model. The classical F-test has been considered and the optimum design has been obtained so as to maximize the power of the test. It is observed that the barycenters are necessarily the support points of the trace-optimal design.     

Estimating the Period of a Cyclic Non‐Homogeneous Poisson Process

Abstract. Motivated by applications of Poisson processes for modelling periodic time‐varying phenomena, we study a semi‐parametric estimator of the period of cyclic intensity function of a non‐homogeneous Poisson process. There are no parametric assumptions on the intensity function which is treated as an infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. We propose a new family of estimators for the period of the intensity function, address the identifiability and consistency issues and present simulations which demonstrate good performance of the proposed estimation procedure in practice. We compare our method to competing methods on synthetic data and apply it to a real data set from a call center.     

为什么提高能源效率没有减少能源消费——能源效率回弹效应研究评述

提高能源效率常被认为是实现降低能耗、节约能源和减少污染的有效途径。不同国家和地区能源效率差异较大,在倡导提高一国能源效率的同时,另一种新经济现象可能会产生——能源效率回弹效应,即能源效率提高节约的能源会被能源价格效应、收入效应和总经济效应等产生的新的能源需求抵消掉。在理论上关于能源效率回弹效应是否存在不同学者给出了各自的解释,实证检验中其大小也因研究主体、方法和时间段的选取不同而有差异。     

一类具p-Laplace算子边值问题解的存在性

研究一类具P—Laplace算子的微分方程四点边值问题解的存在性。通过一个形式参数，将该问题间接地转化为一个等价的积分算子不动点问题。在非线性项有界、无界以及局部有界条件下，利用Schauder不动点定理分别得到了边值问题解存在的充分条件。     

Wind farms in rural areas: How far do community benefits from wind farms represent a local economic development opportunity?

Although the large-scale deployment of renewable technologies can bring significant, localised economic and environmental changes, there has been remarkably little empirical investigation of the rural development implications. This paper seeks to redress this through an analysis of the economic development opportunities surrounding wind energy development in rural Wales. The paper concludes that the economic development outcomes to rural areas from wind generation projects to date have been questionable. Increasing the flow of conventional economic benefits to rural economies in terms of incomes and jobs is shown to be difficult because of the nature of the local supply side in remote areas. Partially as a consequence of this, developers of wind farms have come to routinely provide diverse forms of community benefits to ‘affected communities’, but these have yet to evolve into significant tools of economic development. In any case, the flows of revenues from community benefits are dwarfed, in quantitative terms, by the revenue streams that might be channelled to rural areas through a broader community ownership of wind energy projects. However, although a few local successes have been achieved, the scope for realising the returns from community ownership remains low in the Welsh case, with a series of impediments considered. We close the paper by suggesting means through which economic outputs might be improved.     

Large‐sample tests of extreme‐value dependence for multivariate copulas

Starting from the characterization of extreme‐value copulas based on max‐stability, large‐sample tests of extreme‐value dependence for multivariate copulas are studied. The two key ingredients of the proposed tests are the empirical copula of the data and a multiplier technique for obtaining approximate p‐values for the derived statistics. The asymptotic validity of the multiplier approach is established, and the finite‐sample performance of a large number of candidate test statistics is studied through extensive Monte Carlo experiments for data sets of dimension two to five. In the bivariate case, the rejection rates of the best versions of the tests are compared with those of the test of Ghoudi et al. (1998) recently revisited by Ben Ghorbal et al. (2009). The proposed procedures are illustrated on bivariate financial data and trivariate geological data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 703–720; 2011. © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

耗尽性分配定理与广东城镇居民收入差距

为了进一步考察广东地区城镇居民收入分配状况,文章从一个新的角度,在耗尽性分配定理的基础上,结合扩展的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数进行了讨论。研究结果表明,社会财富按照参与生产的要素的边际产量进行分配,城镇居民所拥有生产要素量的差异会引起收入的差异,在市场自发配置下,造成广东省城镇居民收入差距进一步扩大。