A Risk Analysis Model in Concurrent Engineering Product Development

Concurrent engineering has been widely accepted as a viable strategy for companies to reduce time to market and achieve overall cost savings. This article analyzes various risks and challenges in product development under the concurrent engineering environment. A three‐dimensional early warning approach for product development risk management is proposed by integrating graphical evaluation and review technique (GERT) and failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Simulation models are created to solve our proposed concurrent engineering product development risk management model. Solutions lead to identification of key risk controlling points. This article demonstrates the value of our approach to risk analysis as a means to monitor various risks typical in the manufacturing sector. This article has three main contributions. First, we establish a conceptual framework to classify various risks in concurrent engineering (CE) product development (PD). Second, we propose use of existing quantitative approaches for PD risk analysis purposes: GERT, FMEA, and product database management (PDM). Based on quantitative tools, we create our approach for risk management of CE PD and discuss solutions of the models. Third, we demonstrate the value of applying our approach using data from a typical Chinese motor company.     

Informed Public Preferences for Electricity Portfolios with CCS and Other Low‐Carbon Technologies

Public perceptions of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and other low‐carbon electricity‐generating technologies may affect the feasibility of their widespread deployment. We asked a diverse sample of 60 participants recruited from community groups in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to rank 10 technologies (e.g., coal with CCS, natural gas, nuclear, various renewables, and energy efficiency), and seven realistic low‐carbon portfolios composed of these technologies, after receiving comprehensive and carefully balanced materials that explained the costs and benefits of each technology. Rankings were obtained in small group settings as well as individually before and after the group discussions. The ranking exercise asked participants to assume that the U.S. Congress had mandated a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from power plants to be built in the future. Overall, rankings suggest that participants favored energy efficiency, followed by nuclear power, integrated gasification combined‐cycle coal with CCS and wind. The most preferred portfolio also included these technologies. We find that these informed members of the general public preferred diverse portfolios that contained CCS and nuclear over alternatives once they fully understood the benefits, cost, and limitations of each. The materials and approach developed for this study may also have value in educating members of the general public about the challenges of achieving a low‐carbon energy future.     

股权激励计划公告前的盈余管理——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文以"上市公司股权激励管理办法"颁布以来沪深两市首次披露股权激励计划的上市公司为研究对象,运用单样本T检验和配对样本T检验的方法,研究了股权激励计划公告日前经理人的盈余管理行为.研究发现:股权激励计划公告日前的三个季度,经理人通过操纵"操纵性应计利润"进行了向下的盈余管理,公告日后盈余存在反转现象;但是,并没有显著的证据表明经理人在股权激励计划公告日前通过操纵"非经常性损益"进行盈余管理.     

Uncertainty Analysis Based on Probability Bounds (P-Box) Approach in Probabilistic Safety Assessment

A wide range of uncertainties will be introduced inevitably during the process of performing a safety assessment of engineering systems. The impact of all these uncertainties must be addressed if the analysis is to serve as a tool in the decision-making process. Uncertainties present in the components (input parameters of model or basic events) of model output are propagated to quantify its impact in the final results. There are several methods available in the literature, namely, method of moments, discrete probability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, and Dempster-Shafer theory. All the methods are different in terms of characterizing at the component level and also in propagating to the system level. All these methods have different desirable and undesirable features, making them more or less useful in different situations. In the probabilistic framework, which is most widely used, probability distribution is used to characterize uncertainty. However, in situations in which one cannot specify (1) parameter values for input distributions, (2) precise probability distributions (shape), and (3) dependencies between input parameters, these methods have limitations and are found to be not effective. In order to address some of these limitations, the article presents uncertainty analysis in the context of level-1 probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) based on a probability bounds (PB) approach. PB analysis combines probability theory and interval arithmetic to produce probability boxes (p-boxes), structures that allow the comprehensive propagation through calculation in a rigorous way. A practical case study is also carried out with the developed code based on the PB approach and compared with the two-phase Monte Carlo simulation results.     

基于差异产品的政府最优R&D补贴策略研究

本文建立考虑产品差异的三阶段双寡头博弈模型:第一阶段政府选择R&D(Research and Development)补贴率,第二阶段企业确定自己的R&D水平,第三阶段企业确定产品价格进行伯川德竞争。根据双寡头在第二和第三阶段是否合作,给出了R&D竞争、R&D卡特尔、共同实验、技术共享联盟和研究共同体等五种R&D策略,得到了相应的政府最优R&D补贴率。研究表明,当技术溢出程度较低且产品水平差异不大时,政府给予采用R&D竞争策略企业的补贴率不高于采用R&D卡特尔策略的企业;当技术溢出程度较高且产品水平差异较大时,结果则相反。在政府进行最优补贴后,从促进技术进步、扩大企业规模以及社会福利最大化的角度来看,五种R&D策略中,共同实验最差,技术共享联盟和研究共同体则最优。     

再制造逆向供应链协调的奖励与奖惩机制设计

设计了政府的奖惩机制,建立了7种情形的决策模型,研究了5种情形下激励机制对于引导回收商提高回收量的有效性。结果表明:制造商对于回收商的奖惩机制不能有效协调逆向供应链;政府对于回收商或制造商的奖励机制均能有效协调逆向供应链且效果相同;政府无论给予制造商还是回收商奖惩机制均能有效协调逆向供应链;政府给予制造商比给予回收商奖惩机制更能调动制造商和回收商的积极性;奖惩机制与奖励机制在引导回收商与制造商的作用方面相似,两种机制下的均衡价格相同,但受到奖惩机制的回收商或制造商的利润与奖励机制相比有所减少,减少量与奖惩力度成正比。     

Leadership across hierarchical levels: Multiple levels of management and multiple levels of analysis

We examined differences in leadership influence processes, perceptions, and multiple levels-of-analysis effects between close and distant charismatic and contingent reward leadership across three hierarchical levels in 13 Korean companies. Multi-source data revealed that followers' commitment to the leader mediated relationships between leadership and followers' attitudinal, behavioral, and performance outcomes in close situations, but not in distant relationships. Leadership at higher levels of management was positively related to leadership at the next lower level, which in turn related to follower outcomes at the lowest echelon. Multivariate within and between analysis indicated multiple-level effects differing by leader–follower distance and for the variables of interest.     

浙江省电子行业创新能力分析

本文以中小企业创新能力调查问卷为基础,基于全面创新管理的框架,对电子行业中回收的问卷数据进行了统计分析,并按照企业的发展阶段对样本数据进行了比较,主要结论是:在生命周期的各个阶段中,企业对技术能力的重视程度均不高;从能力的动态分析结果来看,企业的全面创新能力及其各子能力大致都遵循一种倒U型的发展轨迹.     

Manufacturing network configuration in supply chains with product recovery

Efficient implementation of product recovery requires appropriate network structures. In this paper, we study the network design problem of a firm that manufactures new products and remanufactures returned products in its facilities. We examine the capacity decisions and expected performance of two alternative manufacturing network configurations when demand and return flows are both uncertain.     

Column generation with free replicability in DEA

The evaluation of efficiency scores in data envelopment analysis is based on the construction of artificial decision making units subject to some assumptions, usually requiring convexity of the production possibility set. This demands divisibility in input and output, which is not always possible. The so-called free replicability model, proposed by Henry Tulkens, permits input and output to enter in only discrete amounts. The model is of a mixed integer programming type, for which the number of variables, here corresponding to the decision making units, may be critical in order to reach an optimal solution.