Multiscale Combined Forecast of Carbon PriceBased on Mixed Structure Data

Accurate forecast of the carbon trading price is of great significance in promoting the scientific and rational development of carbon trading market. Therefore, this paper proposes a multi-scale combined forecasting method for carbon price based on mixed structure data. First, the Google Index is used to extract the unstructured data related to the carbon price.The dimensions of unstructured data are reduced based on principal component analysis. Then, EMD is employedto the structured data,unstructured data and the carbon trading price to obtain different IMFs, which are reconstructed by the Fine-to-Coarse technique to get low, high frequency sequence and trend sequence. Furthermore, the three items are predicted respectively by using ARIMA, PLS and neural networks according to the features of each scale in time series. Finally, the forecasting results are summed to get the carbon price forecast sequence. The proposed method is used to forecast carbon price in EU. The empirical results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is higher than that of the single prediction method and the prediction method that time series aren’t decomposed by EMD, which is of great applicability.     

关于如何完善土地流转的制度探讨---基于日本农地中间管理制度的分析与启示

土地流转是实现农业现代化的基础条件之一,但是,实现土地有序流转需要建立完善的制度体系。日本近年实施的农地中间管理制度旨在通过建立农地中间管理机构(农地银行)及相应的流转机制和流转补贴制度,促进土地向农业承担主体集中,提高农业用地的利用效率和集约化程度,进而提高农业生产力。通过对该制度的细致总结和效果分析,认为中国的土地流转制度有必要以目标为导向,完善制度设计、细化政策措施、调整农业补贴并注重基层和农民参与。     

“未预结局”：一个壮族社区社神信仰的断裂与重拾

受政治、经济和文化等因素的深刻影响，处于乡村社会之中的民间信仰体系经历着两次较大规模的由断到续的过程。这个过程在很大程度上反映的是新中国成立60多年来中国民众宗教生活的状态，是一部新中国成立以来的民众宗教生活史。该研究集中对此两次“未预结局”现象进行讨论，通过其在一个壮族社区生活场景中的具体呈现，以展示出前后两次断裂与重拾的实际状况，尽力寻找这些现象背后的社会力量，以及这种力量与当地人社会生活之间的紧密关系。     

全国及省际人力资本水平存量估算

估算全国和省际人力资本水平是经济增长研究所不能回避的问题。当前的研究主要采用教育年限法、物质投入法、生产函数法、人力资本回报法、人力资本特征与收入法和J-F终生收入法等六种方法。多角度比较和判别,可以验证生产函数法测算的各年相对人力资本水平较为可靠。使用生产函数法估算全国和各省的1952-2008年的人力资本存量,可刻画统一单位衡量的全国和各省人力资本水平。总体来说,全国和各省人力资本水平呈增长状态,各省人力资本存量以及增长速度存在明显差异。     

房屋拆迁中的国有土地使用权补偿司法实证研究

房屋拆迁中的国有土地使用权补偿是我国城镇房屋拆迁中的主要矛盾点之一。通过对司法判例进行实证研究发现，法院判决多数认为原告诉请国有土地使用权补偿于法无据，抑或认为对于国有土地使用权的补偿已随房屋评估作价。房屋拆迁的重点在于“地”，若仅对房屋所有权人进行补偿，而忽视国有土地使用权人，无疑会引发诸多诉讼，乃至于阻碍城镇化进程。因此，在渐进式改革的背景之下，可以开展国有土地使用权补偿的试点，同时应当完善《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》，并将合理补偿原则作为补偿的基本原则，以此为基础建立一套独立于房屋拆迁补偿的国有土地使用权补偿体系。     

深圳市海外高层次人才引进对三亚市的借鉴与启示

当今人才作为第一资源是各国家与地区之间争夺的对象，如何引进、使用和留住人才对国家和地区的经济发展具有重要意义。深圳市是全国改革开放的先锋军，在海外高层次人才引进方面走在全国前列。对深圳市海外高层次人才引进特色和优势分析，可为三亚市海外高层次人才的引进提供借鉴和启示意义，以促进三亚市发挥自身优势，吸引优势人才资源，为建设海南省国际旅游岛做出一份贡献。     

Sequential Hypothesis Tests for Identifying the Minimum Dose with a Threshold Effect

We propose a procedure to identify a lowest dose having greater effect than a threshold dose under the assumption of monotonicity of dose mean response in dose response test. So, we use statistics based on contrasts among sample means and apply a group sequential procedure to our procedure to identify effectively the dose. If we can identify the dose at an early step in the sequential test, since we can terminate the procedure with a few observations, the procedure is useful from an economical point of view. In a simulation studies, we compare the superiority among these procedures based on three contrasts.     

“（是）……的”类句式已然义的层次性分析——以“S（是）AV（O）的”句式为例

以学界广为关注的“S（是）AV（（））的”句式为例，重点分析“（是）……的”类句式在语境、词汇和句法三个层面所显示的不同已然义特征，并以此为基础对国内外关于已然义“（是）……的”类句式的相关研究进行简要的评价。     

Confidence interval estimation and hypothesis testing for a common correlation coefficient

Several procedures have been proposed for testing the hypothesis that all off-diagonal elements of the correlation matrix of a multivariate normal distribution are equal. If the hypothesis of equal correlation can be accepted, it is then of interest to estimate and perhaps test hypotheses for the common correlation. In this paper, two versions of five different test statistics are compared via simulation in terms of adequacy of the normal approximation, coverage probabilities of confidence intervals, control of Type I error, and power. The results indicate that two test statistics based on the average of the Fisher z-transforms of the sample correlations should be used in most cases. A statistic based on the sample eigenvalues also gives reasonable results for confidence intervals and lower-tailed tests.