An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

马克思主义人学理论的动态历史考察

马克思主义人学思想是一个非常完整、科学的理论体系,其形成和发展主要经历了三个发展阶段:从博士论文到《1844年经济学哲学手稿》是其萌芽时期,提出了以劳动为基础的人学理论框架;从《神圣家族》到《共产党宣言》是其基本形成和发展时期,确立了人学理论的唯物主义立场;从《共产党宣言》到《资本论》是其成熟和完善时期,形成了以人的自由全面发展为最终归宿的完备人学理论体系。马克思主义人学在唯物史观的基础上实现了对以往人学理论的超越,为人和社会的发展开辟了广阔的前景。     

动态视角下中国城市群土地利用TFP测度及影响因素研究

提高城市群土地利用TFP对合理高效利用土地资源,协调好城市群经济发展、资源配置和环境保护具有重大理论和实践意义.文章运用DEA-Malmquist指数对2003—2016年动态视角下中国城市群土地利用TFP进行测度和时空演变分析,并利用Tobit回归模型对影响城市群土地利用TFP变化的因素进行深入研究.结果表明:从时间维度看,城市群土地利用TFP年均上升0.7％,城市群土地利用TFP增长由技术效率和技术进步"双核驱动",技术效率的提升主要与纯技术效率提升有关,规模效率是技术效率和土地利用TFP提升的瓶颈约束;从空间维度看,晋中、哈长、海峡西岸、中原、长江中游、北部湾、成渝、黔中、关中平原和兰西城市群土地利用TFP呈下降趋势,其余城市群土地利用TFP均呈上升趋势,且京津冀、呼包鄂榆、辽中南、长江三角洲、山东半岛和天山北坡城市群土地利用TFP增长为技术进步和技术效率"双核驱动";从影响因素看,人均GDP和年末金融机构人民币各项贷款余额对中国城市群土地利用TFP具有正向促进作用,城市财政支出占本市GDP的比重和人口密度具有负向阻碍作用.     

Spatial Distribution of Flood Risk and Quality of Spatial Management: Case Study in Odra Valley,Poland

This article presents methodological solutions aimed at presenting the spatial distribution of flood risk and quality of spatial management (land use), indicating both those areas used reasonably and those requiring modification. The purpose was to identify key risk areas and risk‐free areas from the point of view of human security and activity on the floodplains, based on the examples of the vicinities of Wroclaw and Raciborz in the Odra Valley, Poland. Due to recent climate change, Poland has suffered the effects of severe flooding (e.g., 1997, 2001, 2010). The analyses conducted were motivated by the European Parliament and Council's recently implemented Directive 2007/60/WE, as well as by the demand for studies for local spatial planning. The analysis indicates that reasonably developed areas do not account for the majority of those studied, making up 36% of the Wroclaw area and 15% of the Raciborz area.     

土地流转中为什么会形成大量小农复制

土地流转是实现规模化经营的前提之一,然而土地流转中却出现大量小农复制,从而影响土地流转的质量和效果。运用12省(自治区)2 553份农户问卷,详细分析土地流转中小农复制的现状及其形成原因。研究发现：(1)农户流转耕地面积不大,转入户流转面积20亩及以下的约占总转入户数的60.3％,转出户流转面积5亩及以下的约占总转出户数的74.38％,转出户中仍然经营土地的约占总转出户数的74％。(2)农业分工发达使生产更加方便、文化传统形成路径依赖、禀赋效应产生“价值幻觉”以及公共服务不健全使未来存在不确定性导致转出户流转部分土地。乡土社会限制土地流转范围和经营风险增加风险感知导致转入户流转小规模土地。     

黑龙江省农村土地经营改革基础及优势分析

农村土地经营制度的改革与创新,必须立足于农业生产力的发展水平,立足于农业生产资料的占有、使用情况。改革开放以来,我国在农村土地经营制度改革上取得了显著成绩。随着全球化经济趋势的加强,农村土地经营制度亟需现代化思路加以诠释。文章以我国农业大省之一——黑龙江省作为研究对象,试通过对农村土地改革的基础条件、优势资本的剖析,对这一问题的解决寻求方案。     

清代棚民问题侧论

农民背井离乡,到山间开垦并种植山地,开发种种山林资源,以谋生存,被称为棚民.清代棚民,数量庞大.政府为了维持社会稳定,对棚民采取安辑的政策.棚民对山地等山林资源的开发,严重破坏了生态环境,造成了严重的后果.对社会维稳和生态维护的两难选择,包世臣的应对策略,很有意义.     

The enclosures of colonization: Indigeneity,development, and the case of Mapithel dam in Northeast India

This paper examines the Mapithel dam in Northeastern state of Manipur in India as a site of contestation between the state-led development agenda and the affected tribal people. Based on discursive field experiences, the paper reflects upon the competing values in relation to land use and ownership systems and raises a question – as to whether in the name of development, is the government eroding tribal people’s right over their land and resources? The Mapithel dam issue not only invites serious deliberations beyond dam construction and its social and ecological ramifications but also contemplates on the various dynamics in and through cultural identity, politics, and natural resources. The paper addresses some key aspects of the very political closure approach which emphasizes state’s hegemony through forceful intrusion into the life, livelihood, and ‘lebenswelt’ of tribal people and infringement of their traditional rights.     

“重陆轻海”与“通洋裕国”之海洋观刍议

明清两朝正处于世界性海洋历史发展的"千古变局"时代,但统治者沿袭传统模式,在立国思想上"重农抑商"、"重陆轻海",在国防战略上以"禁海"代替海防,禁海迁界、"守土防御",反映其海洋观念的淡薄;而东南沿海地方官员,尤其郑成功"通洋裕国"思想的提出和实践,显露出"以商立国",向海洋空间发展的意涵;传统时代"重陆轻海"与"通洋裕国"所反映的海洋观念,对国家民族发展的影响在某种程度上可以忽略不计,但大航海时代,海洋作为人类的第二生存空间影响到世界历史走向和发展格局时,"重陆轻海"观念所带来的深层影响会因此而改变国家和民族的命运。     

‘Business under new management’ — lessons from Canada on regulation of the social work profession

Abstract

In December 1998 the Social Work and Social Service Work Act (hereafter the Ontario Act) was passed in Ontario, Canada marking the effective completion of social work regulatory legislation across provincial Canada. This article outlines the principal features of the Ontario regulations, and summarises the strengths and limitations of the various arrangements which have been implemented across Canada. As moves toward control of the Australian social work profession are contemplated, the implications for such a move are discussed in the light of the Canadian experience.