给定限期条件下的应急系统优化选址模型及算法

针对应急系统的特点,提出了在满足应急系统时间紧迫性的前提下,基于系统的费用最小的数学模型,并给出了相应的求解算法,并从理论上证明了该应急系统模型求解方法的正确性。     

GM Foods and the Misperception of Risk Perception

Public opposition to genetically modified (GM) food and crops is widely interpreted as the result of the public's misperception of the risks. With scientific assessment pointing to no unique risks from GM crops and foods, a strategy of accurate risk communication from trusted sources has been advocated. This is based on the assumption that the benefits of GM crops and foods are self-evident. Informed by the interpretation of some qualitative interviews with lay people, we use data from the Eurobarometer survey on biotechnology to explore the hypothesis that it is not so much the perception of risks as the absence of benefits that is the basis of the widespread rejection of GM foods and crops by the European public. Some respondents perceive both risks and benefits, and may be trading off these attributes along the lines of a rational choice model. However, for others, one attribute-benefit-appears to dominate their judgments: the lexicographic heuristic. For these respondents, their perception of risk is of limited importance in the formation of attitudes toward GM food and crops. The implication is that the absence of perceived benefits from GM foods and crops calls into question the relevance of risk communication strategies for bringing about change in public opinion.     

Toward Improved Communication about Wildland Fire: Mental Models Research to Identify Information Needs for Natural Resource Management

The management of natural- and human-induced wildland fires is an intricate process that must balance two considerations: that of fire as a necessary natural disturbance and that of the risks that fire poses. Reconciling tradeoffs between these risks and benefits is contingent upon informed, directed, and two-way communication between wildland fire managers and stakeholders. In an effort to aid with the design of such a communication effort, this study used mental models research to determine the unique wildland fire information and decision-making needs of stakeholders living at the wildland-urban interface of a fire-prone area. While the analysis revealed many similarities in how stakeholders conceptualized the risks and benefits of wildland fire, many misconceptions and important gaps in understanding on the part of both expert and nonexpert respondents were identified.     

自组织建模方法和GDP增长模型研究

经济系统的复杂性决定了经济变动及影响因素解释的困难性。本文阐述了一种经济系统复杂性研究的有效方法-自组织建模方法,同时应用此方法建立一个解释我国GDP增长的自组织模型,分析影响我国经济增长的主要因素,并在此基础上提出相应的对策思路。     

生存理性如何影响农户的差别化生产

在食品安全威胁下,农户重新定义了“为自家生产”和“为市场生产”的差别化生产行为。基于经济理性行为假设认为农户存在以确保自家食品安全为动机的生存理性。根据在5省区收集的827份农村入户调研数据,对农户差别化生产行为进行具体分析,描述了差别化生产行为总体特征,并测量农户食品安全自我保护意识、威胁感知程度和信息渠道等因素。运用Probit模型验证了命题：以食品安全自我保护意识为特征的生存理性,支配了农户为确保自家消费安全而进行的差别化生产。     

Using Technology to Facilitate Collaboration in Community-Based Participatory Research (CBPR)

This study explores the use of Computer-Supported Collaborative Work (CSCW) technologies, by way of a computer-based system called iCohere. This system was used to facilitate collaboration conducting Community-Based Participatory Research (CBPR). Data was gathered from 13 members of a Community Collaborative Board (CCB). Analysis revealed that iCohere served the following functions: facilitating communication, providing a depository for information and resource sharing, and allowing for remote meeting attendance. Results indicated that while iCohere was useful in performing these functions, less expensive technologies had the potential to achieve similar goals if properly implemented. Implications for future research on CSCW systems and CBPR are discussed.     

Early Pregnancy Assessment Services in Australia: What psychosocial support is available? A qualitative study

ProblemWomen commonly experience emotional distress following miscarriage but do not receive the support they need from healthcare providers.BackgroundMiscarriage can result in psychological morbidity; however, appropriate support at the time of a miscarriage can lead to better psychological outcomes. Early Pregnancy Assessment Services (EPASs) are dedicated outpatient services considered the “gold standard” for miscarriage care. Little is known about the psychosocial support EPASs provide in Australia.AimsThe aim of this study was to explore the provision of psychosocial support in Australian EPASs.MethodsSemi-structured interviews were conducted with 29 purposively sampled key-informants from 13 EPASs. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed, and thematically analysed.FindingsConsiderable variation was found in how EPASs functioned and their provision of psychosocial support. Many services were co-located with antenatal services, run by doctors with limited experience and most did not offer any psychosocial training to staff specific to EPAS. Referrals for additional support were generally not offered for first trimester miscarriages, and follow-up typically focused on physical management rather than emotional wellbeing. All EPAS staff demonstrated a strong commitment to providing best possible care to women within their own clinical setting and acknowledged the need for improved psychosocial support.ConclusionThis study provides the first exploration of Australian EPASs’ provision of psychosocial support. It has shown that while health care professionals working in EPASs are dedicated to providing the best possible care to women within their clinical setting, psychosocial support is very limited and could be improved.     

Sensitivity,uncertainty, and decision analyses in the prioritization of research

The evaluation of hazards from complex, large scale, technologically advanced systems often requires the construction of computer implemented mathematical models. These models are used to evaluate the safety of the systems and to evaluate the consequences of modifications to the systems. These evaluations, however, are normally surrounded by significant uncertainties related to the uncertainty inherent in natural phenomena such as the weather and those related to uncertainties in the parameters and models used in the evaluation.

Another use of these models is to evaluate strategies for improving information used in the modeling process itself. While sensitivity analysis is useful in defining variables in the model that are important, uncertainty analysis provides a tool for assessing the importance of uncertainty about these variables. A third complementary technique, is decision analysis. It provides a methodology for explicitly evaluating and ranking potential improvements to the model. Its use in the development of information gathering strategies for a nuclear waste repository are discussed in this paper.     

Making sense of the senses across species boundaries: designing the Animal Senses gallery at National Museums Scotland

As one of a suite of natural science galleries in the National Museum of Scotland, Animal Senses presents a comprehensive overview of how animals have evolved senses as they have adapted to different ecological niches in order to find food or avoid predation. Using different sensory channels, they also have evolved means of communication to attract mates, deter rivals, and remain hidden from predators and prey. Some of the most extraordinary examples of evolution are those which mimic the appearance of another unrelated species or some feature of the environment such as a thorn on a bush or a piece of coral. New taxidermy and models, engaging text presented hierarchically, and fun interactives were developed specifically for this gallery in order to present an up-to-date review of senses and communication. However, its real strength is the wide array of real specimens and life-size models which allow visitors to see what these animals really look like and how big they are, experiences which cannot be emulated by books or electronic media. By taking a thematic approach, we have created an unrivalled opportunity to compare animals from different taxonomic groups to see how they have solved the problems of life by evolving similar structures or completely different ones in order to find food, avoid being eaten, navigate, find mates and deceive rivals and predators.     

Feminist power and its implications on Uganda’s malaria communication campaign

This paper examines power and its manifestation in Uganda’s “Stop Malaria Campaign.” It specifically questions the apparent radical feminism, which is conceptualized as a quest for power, and how such excesses drive implementation of the campaign. The paper explains data collected through focus group discussions and key informant interviews using feminist communication theory as informed by the critical ideas of feminism and power. These three ideas help to put into perspective: domination of the campaign by one gender, interpretation of the campaign’s objectives to suit that one gender, and communication methods used in the campaign. Analysis of the above three processes shows that men are the weaker gender in the malaria prevention drive, an idea that has clashed with the existing male chauvinism on which several families still thrive in Africa. A view that radical feminism should be seen as an organized form of power that needs to be checked if Uganda’s malaria communication campaign is to be implemented successfully is herein proposed, along with some solutions to the challenges.