联系汇率制传统调节机制的失灵、风险及其改进

90年代后期的金融危机对港币的冲击使理论界认识到,传统的联系汇率制并不是坚不可摧的,有必要对其作适当调整.本文介绍了联系汇率制的两个自动调节机制:物价--现金流机制和套利机制,并对其在运行中的失灵问题进行了阐述.本文认为,港币利率的相对变动是联系汇率制调节过程中的关键因素,利率是调节机制运行的基础.通过分析港币近年来的运行情况,本文检验了港币危机时的利率升水幅度,建议通过建立港币认沽制度来稳定利率、完善两个自动调节机制.     

从《唐支用钱练帐》考察唐初西域的政治经济状况

本文应用吐鲁番出土文书,研究了唐初西域的政治经济状况。首先指出,唐朝为了平定西突厥弓月部落、疏勒国和吐蕃联兵侵扰于阗国的变乱,组建了以西州所属折冲府卫士为主力的“西域道行军”,并取得了平乱战事的胜利。接着论述,唐高宗麟德二年(公元665年),西域流通着波斯萨珊银币、唐朝生产的白练和铸造的“开元通宝”铜钱,并且探讨了这些货币与市场商品的比价。     

Familial relations and labor market outcomes: the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon

We analyze intra-family support among Palestinians living in Lebanon, using detailed household survey data from the refugee camps and Palestinian communities in Lebanon and latent class analysis technique. The study uncovers five latent classes of familial exchange. Two different theoretical models—the solidarity and reciprocal exchange—are used to examine the link between patterns of assistance and labor market conditions. Contrary to the solidarity account, we find no evidence of high familial assistance among the unemployed, or those excluded from the labor market, and this is true regardless of type of exchange. However, the camp population is more likely to engage in exchange relations than their non-camp counterparts. The married, loners, educated, employed, and those with stronger ties to relatives are more likely to be money exchangers. The findings are similar for care receivers, but age and gender figure prominently here. Some policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

民族精英与近代甘南藏区教育变革

近代是甘南藏区教育变革的重要时期,民族精英在教育变革中发挥了重要作用。他们重视汉文化的学习,创建民间文化团体,革新寺院教育,极大促进了汉藏文化间的交流。     

Social Exchange and Sexual Behavior in Young Women's Premarital Relationships in Kenya

Transactional sex, or the exchange of money and gifts for sexual activities within nonmarital relationships, has been widely considered a contributing factor to the disproportionate prevalence of HIV/AIDS among young women in sub-Saharan Africa. This study applied social exchange theory to premarital relationships in order to investigate the linkages between a variety of young women's resources-including employment and material transfers from male partners-and sexual behaviors. Data on the first month of premarital relationships (N=551 relationships) were collected from a random sample of young adult women ages 18-24 in Kisumu, Kenya, using a retrospective life history calendar. Consistent with the hypotheses, results showed that young women's income increases the likelihood of safer sexual activities, including delaying sex and using condoms consistently. Material transfers from the male partner displayed the opposite effect, supporting the view that resources obtained from within the relationship decrease young women's negotiating power.     

文化全球化对湖湘文化创新的影响及对策

文化全球化作为一把双刃剑,它既有利于我们解放思想、开拓视野去接受西方的先进文化理念,创新湖湘文化,同时,又对湖湘文化的文化地位和文化个性形成严峻的挑战。在文化全球化背景下创新湖湘文化,首先,必须保护和传承湖湘文化的精华,其次,要按照时代的要求对湖湘文化进行现代化转型,再次,要在文化交流中吸取西方文化的积极因素,丰富湖湘文化的精神内涵,促进自身的繁荣与发展。     

农村社区中礼物交换的社会学分析——以华北地区L村的一次婚礼为例

中国历来就是一个重人情的社会,尤其是在人情关系型的传统农村社区,人情是村民之间进行交往、建立关系的主要依据和准则.礼物则是交换的载体.婚礼中礼物交换不仅规范人们行为、促进人际关系的社会支持功能,还能在物质和精神方面裨益人们,使公众感知和承认生命周期中的重大决定--婚姻关系的社会维系功能.     

人民币汇率的管控与放任——基于Markov分布转移模型的实证研究

该文在Markov状态转移模型的基础上,利用收益分布的尾部差异作为划分管控状态与放任状态的标准,结合收益波动的长记忆性,建立基于Markov分布转移的MDS-IGARCH模型,来考察中国政府管控人民币汇率的渐进性与阶段性。研究显示,随着四年来汇率改革的逐步完善与推进,在2006年9月至2008年9月间,人民币兑美元汇率基本没有受到政府管控的影响,紧盯单一美元的格局正被扭转,欧元在一篮子参考货币中所占的比重不断提升,人民币兑日元汇率实现了以市场供求关系为基础的自由浮动,更富弹性且更为灵活的汇率制度已日渐成型。为此,货币当局应进一步增强货币政策的主动性与独立性,减少政府管控人民币汇率的投入成本,逐步推动有管理的浮动汇率制向目标区域汇率制转变。     

神圣化到世俗化的交换与财产权——对于黔东南台江苗族婚姻制度的思考

从古代社会到现代社会的发展过程中,与婚姻制度有关的各种文化习俗、道德义务、财产继承制度等都发生了不同程度的变化。以苗族社会婚姻制度的变迁为线索,分析这一制度与苗族社会的交换体系和财产权的关系时,可以看到苗族的婚姻制度在从传统到现代的发展过程中,很大程度地浸入了外来文化和市场经济的特点,从而促使了苗族社会的礼物交换体系与...