Topological Performance Measures as Surrogates for Physical Flow Models for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Electric Power Systems

Critical infrastructure systems must be both robust and resilient in order to ensure the functioning of society. To improve the performance of such systems, we often use risk and vulnerability analysis to find and address system weaknesses. A critical component of such analyses is the ability to accurately determine the negative consequences of various types of failures in the system. Numerous mathematical and simulation models exist that can be used to this end. However, there are relatively few studies comparing the implications of using different modeling approaches in the context of comprehensive risk analysis of critical infrastructures. In this article, we suggest a classification of these models, which span from simple topologically‐oriented models to advanced physical‐flow‐based models. Here, we focus on electric power systems and present a study aimed at understanding the tradeoffs between simplicity and fidelity in models used in the context of risk analysis. Specifically, the purpose of this article is to compare performance estimates achieved with a spectrum of approaches typically used for risk and vulnerability analysis of electric power systems and evaluate if more simplified topological measures can be combined using statistical methods to be used as a surrogate for physical flow models. The results of our work provide guidance as to appropriate models or combinations of models to use when analyzing large‐scale critical infrastructure systems, where simulation times quickly become insurmountable when using more advanced models, severely limiting the extent of analyses that can be performed.     

中国民营企业家的伦理领导行为:内涵结构与量表开发

文章以中国民营企业家为研究对象，采用跨案例分析法探讨企业家伦理领导行为的内涵结构及特征，并在此基础上开发具有中国情境特点的民营企业家伦理领导行为量表。研究结果显示：受中国儒家伦理文化影响，中国民营企业家伦理领导行为包括"德性修养""集体动机"和"天下情怀"三个维度；企业家的伦理领导行为表现为"修己安人"的关系内涵，企业家自身不仅践行着较高的伦理道德标准，且将之扩展至对员工、组织行为的引导和规范；本研究开发的中国民营企业家伦理领导行为量表具有良好的信度和效度。文章丰富了西方伦理型领导理论和高阶理论研究，对中国本土企业家如何提高领导力有着重要启示。     

监察委员会人事管理与约束监督刍议

《监察法》的出台标志着监察制度改革的成果在法律层次上的确认,是国家在政治体制上进行顶层设计的一件大事。“一府一委两院”的政治新格局初步形成,深化监察制度改革依然是健全完善国家监督体系的重要路径。监察委员会的出现不同以往政治体制的改革,使行政监察迈向国家监察,监察制度实现了质的飞跃,其人事管理和“超级机关”的潜在威胁是不容忽视的。基于法治建设中具有普适价值的独立性与权力制约两原则,从人才选拔、人事培养到人事考核探索监察委员会的人事管理,从党的领导和外部机关约束监督的视角思量监察委员会的被监督问题。     

A more powerful unconditional exact test of homogeneity for 2 × c contingency table analysis

The classical unconditional exact p-value test can be used to compare two multinomial distributions with small samples. This general hypothesis requires parameter estimation under the null which makes the test severely conservative. Similar property has been observed for Fisher's exact test with Barnard and Boschloo providing distinct adjustments that produce more powerful testing approaches. In this study, we develop a novel adjustment for the conservativeness of the unconditional multinomial exact p-value test that produces nominal type I error rate and increased power in comparison to all alternative approaches. We used a large simulation study to empirically estimate the 5th percentiles of the distributions of the p-values of the exact test over a range of scenarios and implemented a regression model to predict the values for two-sample multinomial settings. Our results show that the new test is uniformly more powerful than Fisher's, Barnard's, and Boschloo's tests with gains in power as large as several hundred percent in certain scenarios. Lastly, we provide a real-life data example where the unadjusted unconditional exact test wrongly fails to reject the null hypothesis and the corrected unconditional exact test rejects the null appropriately.     

Ratio tests under limiting normality

We propose a class of ratio tests that is applicable whenever a cumulation (of transformed) data is asymptotically normal upon appropriate normalization. The Karhunen–Loève theorem is employed to compute weighted averages. The test statistics are ratios of quadratic forms of these averages and hence scale-invariant, also called self-normalizing: The scaling parameter cancels asymptotically. Limiting distributions are obtained. Critical values and asymptotic local power functions can be calculated by standard numerical means. The ratio tests are directed against local alternatives and turn out to be almost as powerful as optimal competitors, without being plagued by nuisance parameters at the same time. Also in finite samples they perform well relative to self-normalizing competitors.     

Change agent's contribution to recipients' resistance to change: A two-sided story

In the change management literature, most studies on recipients' resistance to change include only the views of agents or of recipients, thereby ignoring that these parties may have different perceptions. In this quantitative study, we include the perceptions of both parties in studying the recipients' resistance and the impact of the agent's leadership behavior. In a sample of 117 agent-recipients groupings, covering 110 different change projects in 90 organizations, we found that agents perceive higher levels of recipients' resistance than do the recipients themselves. Additionally, we found that agents who create space to enable recipients to think and act differently (by employing creating behavior) report higher levels of recipients' resistance, whereas recipients perceive their resistance to be lowered when agents facilitate an emotional connection to the change (framing behavior). The depth of the change appeared to moderate the relationship between agent's leadership behavior and recipients' resistance, indicating that agents and recipients differ in which change leadership behaviors they perceive as increasing or decreasing resistance at different levels of change depth. These findings imply to reconsider the relationship between agent and recipients and we propose some promising avenues for future studies in resistance research.     

Behavioural determinants of perceived managerial and leadership effectiveness in Argentina

The purpose of this empirical study was to explore the perceptions of Argentinean managers and non-managerial employees about managerial and leadership effectiveness, and the extent to which the findings are generalized to other countries. The central research question addressed was as follows: How do people employed in Argentinean companies behaviourally distinguish effective managers from ineffective managers, and to what extent are the findings culture-specific or context-general? A total of 42 employees from private and public sector organizations in Cordoba, Argentina, were interviewed using critical incident technique. The interviews generated 302 critical incidents of which 155 were examples of positive (effective) managerial behaviour, and 147 of negative (ineffective) managerial behaviour. The findings suggest that Argentineans perceive as effective those managers who are supportive, considerate, motivating, caring, good decision makers, approachable, participative, fair-minded, communicative, actively involved, and who act as role models. This challenges the widely held belief that Argentineans prefer authoritarian managers over democratic ones.     

珠江三角洲企业营销由粗放型向集约型转变的探讨

珠江三角洲的市场营销在由粗放型向集约型转变中涌现了一些集约型营销搞得较好的企业,具体表现有：善于发现市场机会,扩大市场需求;重视产品高新系列化,提高市场竞争力;重视分销和促销;工商携手、开拓市场;树立社会营销观念,提高企业的知名度和企业形象等     

夜盘交易对中国农产品期货市场定价权的影响

基于信息溢出视角,利用DCE与CBOT豆油期货连续合约收盘价数据,实证分析了夜盘交易启动对中国农产品期货市场定价权的影响。研究结果表明：夜盘交易的启动,未能有效提升DCE豆油期货对CBOT豆油期货的收益溢出效应,CBOT豆油期货对DCE豆油期货的收益溢出始终处于强势地位。夜盘交易前,CBOT对DCE豆油期货的波动溢出效应显著强于后者对前者的波动溢出效应,而夜盘交易的启动有效改善了这一现状;夜盘交易启动后,DCE与CBOT豆油期货呈现双向显著的波动溢出效应。综合来看,夜盘交易影响DCE向CBOT信息溢出的主要渠道为波动溢出而非收益溢出,夜盘交易未能有效提升以DCE豆油期货为代表的中国农产品期货市场定价权。     

学术导师领导力的结构与测量

依据领导力的普遍概念,提出具有实际操作意义的学术导师领导力概念和结构,并进一步编制(ASLS).181份有效试测问卷的探索性因子分析结果表明,学术导师领导力的结构由授权、关怀、发展、激励四个维度构成.677份有效正式测量问卷的验证性因子分析、内部一致性分析、皮尔逊相关分析结果证实,(ASLS)具有良好的信度和效度.