ON BOOTSTRAP HYPOTHESIS TESTING

We describe methods for constructing bootstrap hypothesis tests, illustrating our approach using analysis of variance. The importance of pivotalness is discussed. Pivotal statistics usually result in improved accuracy of level. We note that hypothesis tests and confidence intervals call for different methods of resampling, so as to ensure that accurate critical point estimates are obtained in the former case even when data fail to comply with the null hypothesis. Our main points are illustrated by a simulation study and application to three real data sets.     

经济增长对收入分配的影响——来自中国的实践验证

经济增长对收入分配会产生何种影响,一直是经济学中相当重要的问题。围绕着库兹涅茨倒U假说的研究表明,经济结构在解释经济增长与收入分配的相互关系时有重要的作用。本文建立了一系列模型用来解释中国近二十年来的经济增长是如何影响收入分配的,并采用1990-2005年中国经济的相关数据对该模型进行验证,表明了经济增长本身会在两个方面对收入分配产生影响,最终的作用是扩大了收入差距还是缩小了收入差距取决于经济结构的变动,其中城乡二元结构的变动起到了至关重要的作用。     

“经济人”假说的演变及其现实意义

自亚当·斯密提出“经济人”假说，至今已历时二百余年，期间“经济人”假说不断发展，逐渐由“传统经济人”演变为“新经济人”。“经济人”假说和“看不见的手”理论共同支撑着经济学大厦的发展。本文在对“经济人”假说进行综述的基础上，结合其演变，进一步阐明“经济人”假说对建设社会主义市场经济体制、建设和谐社会和良好人际关系的理论和现实意义。     

Exposure to occupational violence and the buffering effects of intra-oranizational support

This paper presents a conceptually distinct analysis of the data first reported by Leather et al. Specifically, it investigates the effects of exposure to a variety of forms of work-related violence upon work attitudes and general well-being within a sample of UK public house licensees—individuals who manage public houses and hold the licence permitting the sale of alcoholic drinks on the premises. In addition, it examines the role of social support in moderating such effects. Based upon a sample of 242 licensees, it reports a consistent interaction between exposure to such violence and the availability of perceived intra-organizational support in determining the size of any negative effects upon individual well-being, job satisfaction and organizational commitment. It is argued that exposure to all forms of work-related violence, including intimidation, verbal abuse and threat, should be seen as a potential stressor within the work environment, the negative effects of which are buffered by perceived support from within the organization, but not by that perceived to be available from informal sources such as family and friends.     

Properties of Bayes Factors Based on Test Statistics

Abstract.  This article examines the consistency, interpretation and application of Bayes factors constructed from standard test statistics. Primary conclusions are that Bayes factors based on multinomial and normal test statistics are consistent for suitable choices of the hyperparameters used to specify alternative hypotheses, and that such constructions can be extended to obtain consistent Bayes factors based on likelihood ratio statistics. A connection between Bayes factors based on likelihood ratio statistics and the Bayesian information criterion is exposed, as is a connection between Bayes factors based on F statistics and parametric Bayes factors based on normal-inverse gamma models. Similarly, Bayes factors based on chi-squared statistics for multinomial data are shown to provide accurate approximations to Bayes factors based on multinomial/Dirichlet models. An illustration of how the simple form of these Bayes factors can be exploited to generate easily interpretable summaries of the experimental 'weight of evidence' is provided.     

"沃尔夫假说"实质之探讨

文章首先指出了国内出版物中对沃尔夫假说在阐释方面存在的一些分歧以及对其评述方面存在的几个纷争;其次对产生的原因作了详细的探讨;最后依据沃尔夫原作的内容和精神,结合国外一些重要文献探究了这一局面产生的原因,并在此基础上提出了作者的看法和判断。     

第二语言习得的互动博弈假说——二语习得理论的哲学思考

就哲学渊源而言,第二语言习得理论包括行为论、认知论和交互论等。文中简要分析这些主要的二语习得理论及其局限之后,运用维果斯基的社会文化理论对二语习得重新进行阐释,认为二语习得是学习者自身心智发展、目的语的社会文化环境、教育者及理论家的协助等诸多因素相互作用的结果。在借用博弈论对二语习得诸多因素间的作用关系进行了简要分析之后,认为二语习得是在这些因素互相博弈的过程中产生发展的。由此在社会文化理论和博弈逻辑思维基础上提出了一种二语习得的互动博弈假说。     

参数假设检验教学中的几个问题

在概率统计教学的基础上,对参数假设检验教学中出现的学生难于理解的几个问题做了系统的总结,主要包括决策的依据,拒绝域的选择以及决策可靠性的判断,其中对做出"接受零假设"决策的可靠性给出了解释。     

货币政策与资本市场关系的理论溯源

货币政策与资本市场之间的关系,其深刻的理论渊源可以从货币数量理论和有效市场理论的有关论述中探寻。这些理论对于货币政策在资本市场预测效力上存在争论,经济学家对这两种理论的维护和相互融通方面做出了重要贡献。     

对理性人假设批判的批判

理性人假设是经济学大厦的基石之一.自其提出之日,就遭到学者广泛而激烈地批评,但似乎并没有妨碍以理性人假设为基础的个人主义分析方法攻城掠地,形成目前庞大的经济学帝国主义,直至目前,也没有看出它放慢侵略的步伐.在表象背后,必然有对理性人假设的现实需求,必然存在其内在合理性和重要价值性:首先,理性人假设是一种方法论逻辑,为科学研究所必须;其次,理性人假设是追求最大化,而非实现了最大化,梦想能否实现是受制度、技术、文化等现实的约束;再次,相比其他人性假设更接近现实,它为社会治理提供一种可能的进路;最后,它是激励约束制度设计的前提.