Approximations and Heuristics for the "Cause-Modified" Life Table

Life-table analysis can help to gauge the lifetime impacts that accrue from modifications to (age-specific) baseline mortality. Modifications of interest include those stemming from risk-factor-related exposures or from interventions. The specific algorithm used in these analyses can be called a cause-modified life table (a generalization of the cause-deleted life table). The author presents an approach for approximating that algorithm and uses it to obtain remarkably simplified expressions for approximating three indices of common interest: life-years lost (LYL), excess lifetime risk ratio (ELRR), and risk of exposure-induced death (REID). These efforts are restricted to the special case of multiplicative increases to baseline mortality (modeled as an excess rate ratio, ERR). The simplified expressions effectively "break open" what is often treated as a "black-box" calculation. Several insights result. For a practical range of risk factor impacts (ERRs), each index can be related to the ERR as a function of a baseline summary statistic and a "characteristic number" specific to the population and cause of interest. Conveniently, those numbers help form "rules of thumb" for translating among the three indices and suggest heuristics for extrapolating indices across populations and causes of death.     

二十一世纪高校体育教育职业发展趋势

高校体育作为构成终身体育思想和全民健身基础的重要组成部分,也是大学生接受学校体育教育的最后阶段,是大学生达到身体、思维、意识、创新等成熟的阶段.本文就高校体育教育职业如何适应未来社会的发展,如何达到全民健身的战略思想等几方面进行探讨.     

无约束条件下多客户流失挽救最优化决策

对无约束条件下多客户流失挽救的最优方案进行了研究.借助于广义客户终身价值,通过数学建模和分析发现,只有当挽救行动判定值大于1时,对流失客户的挽救才有必要,且存在最优挽救费用,各类客户中的合理挽救次序也存在.     

Diagnostics of prior-data agreement in applied Bayesian analysis

This article focused on the definition and the study of a binary Bayesian criterion which measures a statistical agreement between a subjective prior and data information. The setting of this work is concrete Bayesian studies. It is an alternative and a complementary tool to the method recently proposed by Evans and Moshonov, [M. Evans and H. Moshonov, Checking for Prior-data conflict, Bayesian Anal. 1 (2006), pp. 893–914]. Both methods try to help the work of the Bayesian analyst, from preliminary to the posterior computation. Our criterion is defined as a ratio of Kullback–Leibler divergences; two of its main features are to make easy the check of a hierarchical prior and be used as a default calibration tool to obtain flat but proper priors in applications. Discrete and continuous distributions exemplify the approach and an industrial case study in reliability, involving the Weibull distribution, is highlighted.     

A bimodal flexible distribution for lifetime data

ABSTRACT

A four-parameter extended bimodal lifetime model called the exponentiated log-sinh Cauchy distribution is proposed. It extends the log-sinh Cauchy and folded Cauchy distributions. We derive some of its mathematical properties including explicit expressions for the ordinary moments and generating and quantile functions. The method of maximum likelihood is used to estimate the model parameters. We implement the fit of the model in the GAMLSS package and provide the codes. The flexibility of the model is illustrated by means of three real data sets.     

A Long‐Term Disability Care and Support Scheme for Australia: Opportunities for Disability Sector Reform

Social insurance schemes in Australasia have a long‐standing involvement in leading systemic change as well as funding services for eligible scheme participants. Establishing a long‐term disability care and support scheme for Australia provides opportunities to remove barriers to community access and improve the employment participation of all Australians with a disability, and to increase the use of evidence in policy development and in the delivery of disability supports. Using the examples of successful models in Australia and New Zealand, the authors will propose a model for the development and management of a long‐term disability care and support scheme that enables sector reform in employment participation, barriers to access and participation in all aspects of community life, and funding of disability research to benefit all Australians with a disability.     

《中国文学流变史》作者郑宾于生平考略

民国学者郑宾于,虽曾因《中国文学流变史》见记于史册,但其生平事迹,至今尚无一文介绍。根据所存文字．初步断定郑宾于为四川(现重庆)酉阳人。自1925年至1936年,郑宾于曾活跃于学界,但此前后,则无迹可寻。对其著述,文中也有提要式的说明与评价。     

客户终生价值典型动态影响因素分析及电信业实证研究

客户终生价值（CLV）典型动态影响因素的识别对于CLV建模以及CLV提升具有指导作用。本文在已有研究成果的基础上,提出了关于CLV典型动态影响因素与CLV之间关系的11组假设。选择北京地区移动通信运营商A、B作为实证对象,通过问卷调查等方法收集481份问卷。分析结果显示,9个客户类因素和5个企业类因素均对CLV产生显著影响。其中,对cLv相关程度较高的影响因素包括性别、世代、收入水平、成就的需要和自主的需要、需求领先、使用情境、高层对客户关系管理（CRM）的规划度以及CRM技术成熟度（显著水平均小于0．001）。根据实证得出的客户类因素和企业类因素对CLV的影响关系,提出了针对电信运营商的客户关系管理建议。     

Properties of the Weibull cumulative exposure model

This article is aimed at the investigation of some properties of the Weibull cumulative exposure model on multiple-step step-stress accelerated life test data. Although the model includes a probabilistic idea of Miner's rule in order to express the effect of cumulative damage in fatigue, our result shows that the application of only this is not sufficient to express degradation of specimens and the shape parameter must be larger than 1. For a random variable obeying the model, its average and standard deviation are investigated on a various sets of parameter values. In addition, a way of checking the validity of the model is illustrated through an example of the maximum likelihood estimation on an actual data set, which is about time to breakdown of cross-linked polyethylene-insulated cables.     

巴蜀才子：诗人李士棻考略

李士棻乃清末道光、光绪年间一位出色诗人,文章从考订李士棻的名号、在蜀中、京城的诗篇,以及晚年流落上海的经历入手,对其诗作加以研究,考证了诗人李士棻传奇的生平事迹,使这位巴渝才子重焕光彩。