以现代租赁方式筹资促进轨道交通建设发展

本文结合我国轨道交通建设的实际,分析了在轨道交通建设中采用现代租赁进行筹资的可行性,对如何选择现代租赁的方式进行了探讨。     

论国民政府抗战时期的交通运输管理体制

交通运输组织良好与否是关系到战争胜负的最重要因素之一.抗战爆发后,国民政府为了尽可能地组织和动员有限的交通运输力量以满足战事的需要,先后设置了一系列的战时交通运输管理机构,并形成了一套战时交通运输管理体制.国民政府的战时交通运输管理体制的运行与变迁,表现出明显的过渡性体制特征,这一体制特征也影响了中国战时交通运输的效率.     

Transportation Hardship: Are You Better off with a Car?

Growing evidence demonstrates the importance of transportation in improving family economic well being. This article sheds light on the hardship that one important transportation asset, private vehicles, may exert on families. Data from the Iowa Transportation and Employment Survey provided a unique opportunity to understand how vehicle access enables households to meet their basic needs, but may exacerbate their problems through the creation of additional demands on resources. Approximately 26% of the sample reported having experienced transportation hardship. The strongest predictors of transportation hardship were the presence of children in the household, low income, driving less reliable vehicles, and the unavailability of transportation assistance from someone outside the household. How to help families meet their transportation needs in light of this evidence remains open to debate.     

《长安大学学报（自然科学版）》2002-2012年主要文献计量指标分析

运用文献计量学方法,以《长安大学学报（自然科学版）》2002-2012年刊载的1 661篇论文为研究对象,统计论文载文量、基金论文比、第一作者职称和学历、合著率和合作度、稿源地区分布以及出版时滞等指标,从文献引证的角度反映其刊载论文的学术水平和期刊影响力,为进一步提高《学报》的学术水平和办刊质量提供一定的依据。研究结果表明：道路工程、桥梁与隧道工程是其载文的主要学科;载文量逐渐下降,论文质量逐步提升;高级职称作者群波动较大,中级职称作者群人数逐渐增多,博士研究生和硕士研究生作为新生力量有所增加;基金论文比大幅增加;作者合著率与合作度较高;论文出版时滞逐渐缩短;期刊被引率、下载次数较高,高被引论文主要集中在优势学科,以研究型论文为主,综述型文章被引频次和下载次数较高。     

交通运输与民族地区经济增长的相关性分析——以临夏为例

为寻求交通运输与民族地区经济增长之间的相关性,本文以甘肃省临夏回族自治州为例,运用相关分析和因果检验发现,货运需求与民族地区经济增长之间存在强相关性,而客运需求与民族地区经济增长之间不存在显著的因果关系。     

中国粮食流通与粮食安全：关键节点的风险识别

粮食安全不仅取决于粮食生产的量和自给率,还取决于可获性,包括“买得起”和“买得到”。当前中国粮食总量安全,但粮食生产的区域结构性矛盾突出,粮食生产日渐向优势区域集中,主销区的粮食消费日益依赖于主产区的粮食调运,粮食运达的及时性对于粮食安全愈发重要。粮食调运必然面临长距离运输问题,这其中尤以在粮食运输网络中起枢纽作用的关键节点的平稳有序运行最为关键。当前实现粮食调运的运输方式主要依靠铁路、水路以及铁水联运,但是这一运输网络存在运力不足、物流方式落后、基础设施建设不足等风险因素,与粮食运输量的增长速度以及运输的顺畅性、及时性要求不相匹配,因此亟待通过加快铁路、水路基础设施建设、推动粮食物流方式变革和健全粮食物流应急响应机制等措施,保障粮食的稳定供给和粮食安全。     

基于整体性治理的京津冀交通一体化研究

交通发展是一项系统的宏伟工程,是京津冀三地实现协同发展的重要抓手。京津冀交通一体化在取得初步成果的同时,依旧面临不少亟待解决的问题。基于整体性治理理论所强调的“整合”“协调”“网络简化”和“信任与责任”等主张,提出在统筹规划、府际关系、投资融资、交通布局等方面推动京津冀交通一体化发展的路径,打造互联互通、便捷高效的交通发展格局。     

陕西省交通基础设施对经济增长的空间溢出效应

为了从外部性角度说明目前陕西省交通基础设施的建设和投资在地域上存在的问题，为陕西省交通基础设施建设方向提供理论帮助，基于陕西省2009~2017年间各市相关数据，在交通基础设施对经济增长效应研究的直接效应和溢出效应基础上，加入空间要素，构建生产函数和空间权重矩阵，通过自相关检验（莫兰指数）、LM检验和 Hausman检验，选取合适的空间面板计量模型对陕西省交通基础设施的经济溢出情况进行研究。研究认为，2009~2017年间陕西省交通基础设施对经济增长的溢出效应（显著）整体为负，但依然存在正溢出的局部地区，即以西安为首的经济聚集区（西安、宝鸡、咸阳）和榆林、延安联合的陕北经济聚集区，资源过于集中和两个高地之间缺乏互联互通是整体呈现负溢出的重要原因。在地域分配的量和质上应充分考虑交通基础设施的溢出效应，避免资源过度集中在西安，在两个经济高地之间打通一条经济要道，并重点扶持相对落后又有发展前景的城市可促使陕西经济发展由总体集聚向总体扩散转变。     

Risk‐Cost‐Benefit Analysis for Transportation Corridors with Interval Uncertainties of Heterogeneous Data

Access management, which systematically limits opportunities for egress and ingress of vehicles to highway lanes, is critical to protect trillions of dollars of current investment in transportation. This article addresses allocating resources for access management with incomplete and partially relevant data on crash rates, travel speeds, and other factors. While access management can be effective to avoid crashes, reduce travel times, and increase route capacities, the literature suggests a need for performance metrics to guide investments in resource allocation across large corridor networks and several time horizons. In this article, we describe a quantitative decision model to support an access management program via risk‐cost‐benefit analysis under data uncertainties from diverse sources of data and expertise. The approach quantifies potential benefits, including safety improvement and travel time savings, and costs of access management through functional relationships of input parameters including crash rates, corridor access point densities, and traffic volumes. Parameter uncertainties, which vary across locales and experts, are addressed via numerical interval analyses. This approach is demonstrated at several geographic scales across 7,000 kilometers of highways in a geographic region and several subregions. The demonstration prioritizes route segments that would benefit from risk management, including (i) additional data or elicitation, (ii) right‐of‐way purchases, (iii) restriction or closing of access points, (iv) new alignments, (v) developer proffers, and (vi) etc. The approach ought to be of wide interest to analysts, planners, policymakers, and stakeholders who rely on heterogeneous data and expertise for risk management.     

Has Successful Terror Gone to Ground?

This article considers all 87 attacks worldwide against air and rail transport systems that killed at least two passengers over the 30‐year period of 1982–2011. The data offer strong and statistically significant evidence that successful acts of terror have “gone to ground” in recent years: attacks against aviation were concentrated early in the three decades studied whereas those against rail were concentrated later. Recent data are used to make estimates of absolute and comparative risk for frequent flyers and subway/rail commuters. Point estimates in the “status quo” case imply that mortality risk from successful acts of terror was very low on both modes of transportation and that, whereas risk per trip is higher for air travelers than subway/rail commuters, the rail commuters experience greater risk per year than the frequent flyers.