Gaps in social protection for health care and long‐term care in Europe: Are the elderly faced with financial ruin?

While public expenditure on health care and long‐term care (LTC) has been monitored for many years in European countries, far less attention has been paid to the financial consequences for older people of private out‐of‐pocket (OOP) expenditure necessary to access such care. Employing representative cross‐sectional data on the elderly populations of 11 European countries in 2004 from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we find that OOP payments for health care and LTC are very common among the elderly across European countries and such expenditures impact significantly on disposable income: up to 95 per cent of the elderly make OOP payments for health care and 5 per cent for LTC, resulting in income reductions of between 5 and 10 per cent, respectively. Failure to prevent financial ruin, as a consequence of excessive OOP payments, is evident in 0.7 per cent of elderly households utilizing health care and 0.5 per cent of elderly households utilizing LTC. Those particularly concerned are the poor, women and the very old.     

有效提高远程学习者自主学习的策略

本文通过对远程学习者自主学习的现状分析，提出相应的策略以帮助学员更有效地开展和提高远程自主学习。     

Sign Restrictions,Structural Vector Autoregressions,and Useful Prior Information

This paper makes the following original contributions to the literature. (i) We develop a simpler analytical characterization and numerical algorithm for Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions (VARs) that can be used for models that are overidentified, just‐identified, or underidentified. (ii) We analyze the asymptotic properties of Bayesian inference and show that in the underidentified case, the asymptotic posterior distribution of contemporaneous coefficients in an n‐variable VAR is confined to the set of values that orthogonalize the population variance–covariance matrix of ordinary least squares residuals, with the height of the posterior proportional to the height of the prior at any point within that set. For example, in a bivariate VAR for supply and demand identified solely by sign restrictions, if the population correlation between the VAR residuals is positive, then even if one has available an infinite sample of data, any inference about the demand elasticity is coming exclusively from the prior distribution. (iii) We provide analytical characterizations of the informative prior distributions for impulse‐response functions that are implicit in the traditional sign‐restriction approach to VARs, and we note, as a special case of result (ii), that the influence of these priors does not vanish asymptotically. (iv) We illustrate how Bayesian inference with informative priors can be both a strict generalization and an unambiguous improvement over frequentist inference in just‐identified models. (v) We propose that researchers need to explicitly acknowledge and defend the role of prior beliefs in influencing structural conclusions and we illustrate how this could be done using a simple model of the U.S. labor market.     

Group sequential monitoring based on the weighted log‐rank test statistic with the Fleming–Harrington class of weights in cancer vaccine studies

In recent years, immunological science has evolved, and cancer vaccines are now approved and available for treating existing cancers. Because cancer vaccines require time to elicit an immune response, a delayed treatment effect is expected and is actually observed in drug approval studies. Accordingly, we propose the evaluation of survival endpoints by weighted log‐rank tests with the Fleming–Harrington class of weights. We consider group sequential monitoring, which allows early efficacy stopping, and determine a semiparametric information fraction for the Fleming–Harrington family of weights, which is necessary for the error spending function. Moreover, we give a flexible survival model in cancer vaccine studies that considers not only the delayed treatment effect but also the long‐term survivors. In a Monte Carlo simulation study, we illustrate that when the primary analysis is a weighted log‐rank test emphasizing the late differences, the proposed information fraction can be a useful alternative to the surrogate information fraction, which is proportional to the number of events. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

红军长征博物馆建于四川的原因

红军长征在四川历时最长,活动范围最广,斗争最复杂,创造的奇迹最多。红军在四川进行了卓有成效的地方工作,成立了四个省委,进行了民族政策的初步探索,而且还在大小金川、康区北部成立了两个省级少数民族革命政权。红军在与少数民族相处中,还留下许多佳话。中共中央在四川境内多次召开过关系党和国家命运的政治局会议及其它重要会议。在四川建立红军长征博物馆,可以通过发展红色旅游,重现长征历程,促进四川贫穷地区的经济文化发展。     

对外汉语报刊语言的长句教学探索

报刊语言中长句多,留学生读起来吃力。长句不讲不明白,也可能越讲越糊涂。制订化长句繁难为简易的教学方略,采取单项训练与综合训练相结合的措施,坚持循环往复、加强重现螺旋式提高的原则,可以提高留学生阅读速度和语言交际能力。     

宗教事务依法管理的路径及基础——以四川藏区依法治理为视角

Under the situation that traditional beliefs have remained basically unchanged while the social economy has developed and population mobility has increased, with the trend of an in-creasing diversity in beliefs, and an increasing number of religious followers and temples, the management of religious affairs has become more difficult. In ethnic areas, the speed of moderniza-tion has accelerated, ethnic interactions are fre-quent, and the beneficial conflict or cultural con-flict among various ethnic groups has become nor-mal; the impact of modernity, ways of life, the value and ideals of the temples’ traditional culture and educational model brings new social pressure for the monks who are adapting to modernization, and making a leap in development while safeguard-ing traditional rituals, culture, religious education and development. The number of criminal cases involving monks has increased, which brings a strong negative influence to the religious followers in Tibetan areas. All these factors are directly in-fluencing the stability and harmonious development of the Tibetan areas. As the second-largest Tibetan area, the geo-graphical location of Sichuan’s Tibetan areas is u-nique. In ancient times, the policy of “keeping the Tibetan areas stable means keeping Kham sta-ble at first” had been an important measure for the central government to manage all of the Tibetan ar-eas. From the Qing dynasty to the present times, it still has a practical use, and even has special val-ue in the process of safeguarding the “long-term stability of Sichuan”, especially when the people have but a hazy understanding of the relationship between the freedom of faith and managing reli-gious affairs according to the law in Tibetan areas, and one needs to have a legal response to it. Hence, “keeping Kham stable” needs to depend on the law, and legal means should be taken to safeguard the harmony and stability of the Tibetan areas in Sichuan. Management of the religious affairs according to the law is an inevitable requirement for China to promote the goal of ruling the country by law, com-prehensively deepen reform, and promote the mod-ernization of the country’s governance system and capability. Based on an active response to the guidance principle of strengthening the manage-ment of religious affairs according to the law pro-posed by the Central Government, and the Sichuan Provincial Government, we should standardize reli-gious activities and affairs, insist on a combination of legal management and policy guidance, adopt various measures, search for a practicable path to realize the significant goal of managing the religious affairs according to the law in Tibetan areas of Si-chuan. This article proposes some methods of man-aging the religious affairs according to the law as follows:1 ) To insist on the CPC’s leadership in reli-gious work and management of religious affairs;2 ) to actively and reliably promote the systematic con-
struction of the legalization of religious affairs;3 ) to insist on the combination of legal management and policy guidance;4 ) to encourage the public to manage religious affairs according to law; 5 ) to standardize the scale and number of monks by u-sing new methods of management;6 ) to strengthen the role of the “four troops” ( Party and Govern-ment leading cadres,ethnic religious work cadres, ethnic minority cadres and talents, and religious believers ) , especially religious believers; 7 ) to make full use of the regulatory framework of the Buddhist community; 8 ) to create conditions for those monks who wish to return to secular life;9 ) to distinguish the boundary between normal and il-legal religious activities, between folk custom and extreme religious concepts; 10 ) to identify and distinguish between “monks and lay people”, and“ordinary cases and religious cases”. At present, there are four foundations for managing religious affairs according to the law:1 ) the idea that freedom of faith is not only one’s right, but also one’s duty has gradually enjoyed popular support;2 ) there is a good policy base for managing religious affairs according to the law;3 ) there is a relatively strong theoretical basis for managing religious affairs according to the law;4 ) there exists good legal support for managing reli-gious affairs according to the law.     

简论壮族五大文化遗产

南方稻作民族人文始祖洛甲及布洛陀、洪水育人神话盘古兄妹、左江花山崖壁画、歌圩的女儿、歌仙刘三姐、全国篇幅最长的民间抒情长诗《嘹歌》,及壮族原生态民歌,是广西壮族五大文化遗产。文化遗产是建设先进文化的民族根基,抢救文化遗产与建设首府先进文化密切相关。     

A Stylistic Analysis of Hemingway’s A Clean,Well-Lighted Place

One important theme of Hemingway＇s A Clean, Well-Lighted Place is the nothingness of life itself, At the beginning of this short story, Hemingway presents a setting--the cafe, which is familiar to us, and then moves our attention to focus on the characters within that setting, The story is told through the dialogues between the two waiters and is in third-person narration, In the following paragraphs we will focus on stylistic characteristics of this short story,     

Estimation of structural mean breaks for long-memory data sets

In long-memory data sets such as the realized volatilities of financial assets, a sequential test is developed for the detection of structural mean breaks. The long memory, if any, is adjusted by fitting an HAR (heterogeneous autoregressive) model to the data sets and taking the residuals. Our test consists of applying the sequential test of Bai and Perron [Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica. 1998;66:47–78] to the residuals. The large-sample validity of the proposed test is investigated in terms of the consistency of the estimated number of breaks and the asymptotic null distribution of the proposed test. A finite-sample Monte-Carlo experiment reveals that the proposed test tends to produce an unbiased break time estimate, while the usual sequential test of Bai and Perron tends to produce biased break times in the case of long memory. The experiment also reveals that the proposed test has a more stable size than the Bai and Perron test. The proposed test is applied to two realized volatility data sets of the S&P index and the Korea won-US dollar exchange rate for the past 7 years and finds 2 or 3 breaks, while the Bai and Perron test finds 8 or more breaks.