电信运营商投资效益仿真研究——基于系统动力学视角

针对目前电信运营商投资效益分析方法单一的现状,依据电信运营商投资效益非线性、动态性等特征,运用系统动力学方法构建了电信运营商投资效益仿真模型,对电信运营商投资效益影响因素进行了仿真分析。结果表明网络设备延迟投入、综合造价等对投资效益影响较大,在此基础上,给出了电信运营商在针对投入产出水平和提升效益方面的建议。     

Electronic payment mechanisms in social security: Extending the reach of benefit and contribution transactions

More often than not, the existing modes of contribution collection and benefit payment of social security organizations are adapted to the collective arrangements that characterize employer‐employee relationships. Extending coverage to individuals in difficult‐to‐reach groups, however, may require new modalities of service that can cope with many separate, secure transactions rather than a few bulk data transfers between organizations. Recent developments in electronic payment show its wide applicability in enabling huge volumes of such individual transactions. It is in this light that the article explores the potentials of this technology and identifies possible arrangements through which electronic payments could surmount barriers that stand in the way of covering difficult‐to‐reach groups. The high level of mobile phone penetration on a global scale augurs well for using e‐payment mechanisms to collect social security contributions and to deliver social security benefits and services. A generic model is used to describe the requisite elements to implement electronic payments in social protection programmes. Based on empirical evidence of current social protection practices from around the world, five scenarios are presented to describe possible configurations for electronic payment, from the simplest to the most sophisticated. The broader objective is to contribute in a practical manner to the international commitment to extend social protection to all, as defined by the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.     

The Impact of In-Home Services Utilization on the Institutionalization of Older People in Korea

As a result of aging populations, institutionalization of older people is creating an increasing financial burden in many countries. The purpose of the present study was to explore the impact of in-home service utilization on institutionalization. The subjects were newly certified as eligible for long-term care insurance between January and February 2009 in Korea. The follow-up period was 40 months, to April 2012. We used logistic regression models to identify factors influencing the transition to institutional service, adjusting for gender, age, living status, income level, activities of daily living, and chronic disease. The institutionalization rate was estimated to be 17.3% over 40 months. The interval from transitional living to institutionalization was 36 ± 8 months. Risk factors of transition to institutional services are being female, having advanced age, living with friends or cousins, getting dementia, and not using in-home services. We determined that institutionalization is mitigated by use of in-home services. Therefore, supplying appropriate in-home services to current nonusers would help to greatly reduce the rate of institutionalization of older people.     

A general long-term aging model with different underlying activation mechanisms: Modeling,Bayesian estimation,and case influence diagnostics

In this paper we propose a general cure rate aging model. Our approach enables different underlying activation mechanisms which lead to the event of interest. The number of competing causes of the event of interest is assumed to follow a logarithmic distribution. The model is parameterized in terms of the cured fraction which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis for the proposed model. Moreover, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given, as well as case deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the ψ-divergence, which has several divergence measures as particular cases, such as the Kullback–Leibler (K-L), J-distance, L₁ norm, and χ²-square divergence measures. Simulation studies are performed and experimental results are illustrated based on a real malignant melanoma data.     

Exploring Home Sharing for Elders

Research suggests that third party-arranged home sharing (“TPAHS”) enables elders to remain at home in advanced age by connecting elder home owners with suitable live-in “matches.” TPAHS potentially saves elders, their families, and Medicaid budgets millions of a dollars per year in avoided and postponed nursing home costs. In interviews with elder TPAHS participants of one TPAHS program, we found that similarity in values, ability to utilize the TPAHS organization's guidance, and, when relevant, familiarity with their matches' mental health challenges, correlated with said participants' satisfaction with their matches while a lack of these qualities correlated with match dissatisfaction. With these findings in mind, we suggest strategies TPAHS organizations can use to best serve the elderly TPAHS participants who may benefit from intensified match support but may not seek it.     

Staff Member Reactions to Same-Gender,Resident-to-Resident Sexual Behavior Within Long-Term Care Facilities

The current study assesses ageism and heterosexism relating to older adult sexual activity within long-term care facilities. To assess caregiver reactions, 153 residential care facility staff members read one of three vignettes. Each vignette described a scenario in which a staff member walks in on two residents (male/female, male/male, or female/female) engaging in sexual activity. Although no main effects were discovered for vignette type, exploratory analyses revealed that the facility where participants were employed was significantly related to their ratings of approval. Furthermore, an interaction effect between vignette and facility types was also discovered for caregivers’ approval of sexual activity among residents. Additionally, a strong overall approval rating of older adult sexuality was reported by staff members. The results of this study warrant that further research is necessary regarding older adults’ perception of caregiver bias, as well as further investigation of caregivers’ perceptions of older adults’ sexual activity.     

Migration,gender and low-paid work: on migrant men’s entry dynamics into the feminised social care work in the UK

The literature on workers in gender atypical occupations has been dominated by a focus on women doing men’s work. Much less attention has been paid to men in women’s work, and even less to the impact of migration. Based on 28 in-depth interviews with migrant men having experiences of working in hands-on social care in England, this article is a contribution to the understanding of migrant men’s entry dynamics into a female-dominated occupation. Focusing on migrant life experiences, it discusses how they actively engage in three entry dynamics: (1) facing barriers and negotiating them, (2) ‘stumbling upon’ women’s work, then developing compensating strategies and (3) migratory/temporary settling into the sector. The article suggests a theory about lifelong ‘travelling’ when entering women’s work: a continuing process of negotiating work options within a specific historical sector context, the intersection of gender and migration being part of this.     

浅谈企业如何发挥效能监察

针对效能监察工作在现代企业建设步伐中发挥的重要作用,就如何更好地发挥效能监察的作用,提高市场竞争能力,进行了一些探讨。     

论建立大学生村官长效机制的政策导向

目前学术界对大学生村官计划的利弊得失尚未形成共识.从大学生村官计划的初衷和理论逻辑来看,其积极意义是不容置疑的,但现行的政策导向属于反向激励和短期激励,不利于建立大学生村官长效机制.正确的政策导向应当是:加强对大学生村官计划的正向激励和长期激励,从工业反哺农业、城市支持农村、统筹城乡关系的战略高度加大对大学生村官计划的经费投入,可以借鉴复员退伍军人安置制度和国家、省部级等课题规划制度对大学生村官给予经费支持;推行大学生村官村民“合同制”和任职年限弹性制度,鼓励永久任职,大学生村官配额应重点向老、少、边、贫农村地区倾斜.     

构建保持党员先进性长效机制的思考——以湖南岳阳“争先创优”活动为例

党员的先进性是执政党先进性系统要素中的基本构成,是执政党保持和实现先进性的前提性条件。湖南岳阳积极探索构建共产党员争先创优的长效机制,党员队伍建设有了新成效。保持共产党员先进性的长效机制,核心是"知""行"统一的目标机制,关键是"绩""效"一致的执行机制,基础是"义""利"融合的保障机制,三者相辅相成。