A general long-term aging model with different underlying activation mechanisms: Modeling,Bayesian estimation,and case influence diagnostics

In this paper we propose a general cure rate aging model. Our approach enables different underlying activation mechanisms which lead to the event of interest. The number of competing causes of the event of interest is assumed to follow a logarithmic distribution. The model is parameterized in terms of the cured fraction which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis for the proposed model. Moreover, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given, as well as case deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the ψ-divergence, which has several divergence measures as particular cases, such as the Kullback–Leibler (K-L), J-distance, L₁ norm, and χ²-square divergence measures. Simulation studies are performed and experimental results are illustrated based on a real malignant melanoma data.     

Exploring Home Sharing for Elders

Research suggests that third party-arranged home sharing (“TPAHS”) enables elders to remain at home in advanced age by connecting elder home owners with suitable live-in “matches.” TPAHS potentially saves elders, their families, and Medicaid budgets millions of a dollars per year in avoided and postponed nursing home costs. In interviews with elder TPAHS participants of one TPAHS program, we found that similarity in values, ability to utilize the TPAHS organization's guidance, and, when relevant, familiarity with their matches' mental health challenges, correlated with said participants' satisfaction with their matches while a lack of these qualities correlated with match dissatisfaction. With these findings in mind, we suggest strategies TPAHS organizations can use to best serve the elderly TPAHS participants who may benefit from intensified match support but may not seek it.     

The Impact of In-Home Services Utilization on the Institutionalization of Older People in Korea

As a result of aging populations, institutionalization of older people is creating an increasing financial burden in many countries. The purpose of the present study was to explore the impact of in-home service utilization on institutionalization. The subjects were newly certified as eligible for long-term care insurance between January and February 2009 in Korea. The follow-up period was 40 months, to April 2012. We used logistic regression models to identify factors influencing the transition to institutional service, adjusting for gender, age, living status, income level, activities of daily living, and chronic disease. The institutionalization rate was estimated to be 17.3% over 40 months. The interval from transitional living to institutionalization was 36 ± 8 months. Risk factors of transition to institutional services are being female, having advanced age, living with friends or cousins, getting dementia, and not using in-home services. We determined that institutionalization is mitigated by use of in-home services. Therefore, supplying appropriate in-home services to current nonusers would help to greatly reduce the rate of institutionalization of older people.     

论建立大学生村官长效机制的政策导向

目前学术界对大学生村官计划的利弊得失尚未形成共识.从大学生村官计划的初衷和理论逻辑来看,其积极意义是不容置疑的,但现行的政策导向属于反向激励和短期激励,不利于建立大学生村官长效机制.正确的政策导向应当是:加强对大学生村官计划的正向激励和长期激励,从工业反哺农业、城市支持农村、统筹城乡关系的战略高度加大对大学生村官计划的经费投入,可以借鉴复员退伍军人安置制度和国家、省部级等课题规划制度对大学生村官给予经费支持;推行大学生村官村民“合同制”和任职年限弹性制度,鼓励永久任职,大学生村官配额应重点向老、少、边、贫农村地区倾斜.     

论后现代技术的品性和实践

以信息、语言、记忆工业和时间物体为代表的后现代技术,批判现代技术的机械化、商品化、功利化、权力化人类中心主义以及物化和异化带来的各类难以预测的事故和灾难。主张在非祛魅性、多元性、生态性和非决定论的后现代科学基础上,根除"技术官僚主义",推动后现代技术往更加人道、民主、自由、智慧和艺术的方向发展,将技术进一步人性化和真善美一体化,使其真正为新人民和全人类的文明服务。     

犯罪记忆心理的可测性与局限性

中国的心理测试技术,是运用现代心理学、犯罪心理学和实验心理学原理以及神经心理学、生物电子学等研究成果,通过专用测试仪器软硬件和智能化计算机系统,同时同步记录人的多项心理生物反映指标,进而评判心理痕迹对应相关程度的实验心理技术。心理测试中心近20年犯罪心理测试的研究成果、以及经过直接参与办理全国各地600多起重特大疑难案件的实践、和经过对近万人实案测试图谱的评判分析研究,得出的结论是:违法犯罪人在经历过违法犯罪事件之后的记忆违法犯罪心理痕迹是可测的。这项技术在辅助刑侦工作方面有着很大的作用,但同样,我们也要看到它的局限性。     

城镇化进程中土地节约集约利用的长效机制探讨

城镇化最显著的特征是聚集性。通过产业集聚才能实现节约集约用地,土地节约集约利用迫使产业结构优化、升级,降低生产成本。而当前县域产业集聚区土地节约集约利用问题比较严重。针对这一问题,提出从激励约束、招商机制、科学规划和收益分配等角度来构建土地节约集约利用的长效机制。     

“场域-惯习”视角下的水电移民长期补偿安置方式

借鉴布迪厄的场域-惯习理论,从移民安置的场域、资本、惯习及其相互之间的作用出发,构建水电移民安置方式分析框架。应用该分析框架对水电移民长期补偿安置方式实施的原因、存在的风险和可能的变化进行社会学解读。     

服务业三种生产模式的选择：外包、FDI和本国生产

外包、FDI和本国生产是服务业国际化战略中最重要的三种生产模式。本文通过建立发达国家的国际化选择模型,利用柯布道格拉斯函数,根据最小成本原则,比较了外包模式、FDI模式和本国生产模式下的成本差异;通过建立短期和长期的国际化选择模型,分析了发达国家如何将服务业产品在外包、FDI和本国生产三种生产模式之间进行分配。并对我国如何做好服务业国际转移的承接工作提出了建议。     

新俄罗斯小说中“苏联”记忆的建构框架

苏联解体后的20余年来,俄罗斯从思想界到文学界对前苏联历史进行深刻反思,重构"苏联"记忆成为当代俄罗斯小说的重要内容,文学由此变成诠释"苏联"形象的特殊话语方式。由于各种社会矛盾和利益关系的缠绕,在小说中如何重构苏联记忆成为一个复杂的文化问题。面对同一个苏联"文本",出现了几种迥异的文学诠释路径,由此呈现多重的"苏联"面。小说作品大致可分为三类:政治祛魅化的"苏联"、日常生活化的"苏联"、情感符号化的"苏联"。从集体记忆的理论视角对新俄罗斯小说中的"苏联"历史书写问题进行系统爬梳、审辨,可追踪考察当代俄罗斯文学发展的新态势,以及俄罗斯民族如何运用文学叙述策略建构"苏联"的历史记忆。