Whither practice-near research in the modernization programme? Policy blunders in children's services

In this article, we lament the effects of practice-distant research and associated policy initiatives on contemporary children's services in England. In the last decade, as a result of high profile inquiries into non-accidental child deaths, statutory children's social care services in the UK have been subject to a wide-reaching ‘modernization’ programme. We studied decision-making in the high blame environment of local authority children's services. Our research sought to examine the relationship between performance management and the impact of anticipated blame within the decision-making practices of those providing, supervising and managing these services. We show that systems and technologies can be developed which both assist the users in their daily work and achieve desired organizational goals, but without an ethnographically informed, practice-near approach, unsafe work regimes and practices can ensue.     

A Social and Historical Perspective of the San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus

ABSTRACT

This study sought to understand the various roles music played for gay men who were members of the San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus, the world's first gay men's chorus. Specifically, it answers the following questions: What is the demographic profile of the chorus members? How has the chorus shaped or reflected social issues; how has the chorus shaped or reflected political issues; how has the music evolved over time?; How was the chorus impacted by the HIV/AIDS epidemic? Historical information for this study was gathered through eight interviews of original and long-time choral members as well as the current artistic director. Interviews were conducted in San Francisco at the San Francisco Gay Men's Chorus office, and additional data were derived from programs of previous choral concerts, two questionnaires (Internalized Homophobia Scale and Gay Chorus Questionnaire), and observations of choral rehearsals and concerts. As a follow-up to a previous study documenting the formation of the chorus in 1978–1982, this study historically documents the chorus's evolution from 1983 through 2003, emphasizing the chorus's impact on social and political issues, the musicality of the chorus, and the impact of HIV/AIDS on the chorus.     

冯铿寻求女性解放道路的心路历程

潮籍革命女作家冯铿的创作始终贯穿着一条关注女性命运、寻求女性解放道路的主线。冯铿的作品序列展示了她寻求女性解放道路的心路历程,从早期强烈呼吁社会为正在遭受苦难的女性"快谋救护的法子",到批判像"一团肉"似的所谓的"时代女性",指明女性"最后的出路"是参加革命,认为真正的新女性是"把自己是女人这一回事忘掉干净"的革命女性。     

Extending social security coverage to the rural sector in China

In late 2009 China launched an innovative, voluntary programme that by 2011 had extended pension coverage to 326.4 million people in the rural sector, including contributors and beneficiaries. It requires one contribution per year and provides a flat‐rate benefit and a contributions‐related benefit through a contributory individual account, with a government guarantee that the benefit will continue for life. The programme encourages participation of persons who do not pay income taxes, and thus have no tax incentive to participate, by providing substantial government subsidies. As a further incentive, old‐age benefits are provided to older parents when all their adult children participate in the contributory programme.     

伊拉克战争与公众参与中国中东外交政策制定

伊拉克战争为公众参与中国中东外交政策制定提供了机会,参与群体前所未有地扩大,参与途径全面拓展,不同意见的表达开始涌现,公众主动对外交建言献策,开始有意施加民意压力。更为重要的是,公众意见开始成为外交部门对外传播国家主张的背景支撑和参考因素。公众因素开始成为中国制定中东外交决策时需要考虑的重要参数之一,但其影响力有限,更多是参考和制约作用,其影响正处于发展之中。     

Smooth tail-index estimation

The two parametric distribution functions appearing in the extreme-value theory – the generalized extreme-value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution – have log-concave densities if the extreme-value index γ∈[?1, 0]. Replacing the order statistics in tail-index estimators by their corresponding quantiles from the distribution function that is based on the estimated log-concave density ? f _n leads to novel smooth quantile and tail-index estimators. These new estimators aim at estimating the tail index especially in small samples. Acting as a smoother of the empirical distribution function, the log-concave distribution function estimator reduces estimation variability to a much greater extent than it introduces bias. As a consequence, Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the smoothed version of the estimators are well superior to their non-smoothed counterparts, in terms of mean-squared error.     

The bumpy road to ‘becoming’: capturing the stories that teenage mothers told about their journey into motherhood

Understanding the experience of women who become mothers during their teenage years is central to ensuring that the support that is offered is appropriate to meet their needs. This paper reports on a small part of a larger ethnographic study that captured the lived experience of young mothers who were between the ages of 16 and 19 years that potentially typifies and illuminates the experiences of young women who become mothers in their teenage years. By collecting data from narrative interviews as well as participant and non‐participant observations over an extended period of time it was possible to identify how the young women experienced a range of difficulties as they made their transition into motherhood. Drawing on the findings, this paper argues that this transition for teenage mothers can be significantly different from the experience of older mothers, and it identifies the importance of appropriate support to mediate the challenges that they face. Understanding the young women's journey to ‘becoming’ is critical when planning services because if their experience of support is negative, it can lead to increased levels of maternal stress and reluctance to engage with support services.     

On the Post-90s＇ Modern Health Concept from the Perspective of Public Hygienic Events

伴随社会经济的迅猛发展和城市化步伐的加快，生态破坏、环境污染等问题日益加剧。生物界自然平衡状态的打破导致近年来我国各类公共卫生危机频发，处于公共卫生事件的高发期，“90后”作为一个特殊的青少年群体，由于其身心机能发育尚未成熟，不但是此类事件中最主要的易感人群，更容易产生各类心理障碍与行为问题。现代健康观念的树立和综合健康素养的提升在这一阶段尤为关键。研究发现，“90后”青少年的健康观念趋于科学理性，健康自我管理能力和习惯养成有待提升：对健康危机的忧患意识较强，危机状态下的心理承受能力较弱；具备一定的公民责任意识和行为自律意识，但面对一些较为复杂的社会现象，现代法制观念和人文关怀意识仍有所欠缺     

Evidence for hedge fund predictability from a multivariate Student's t full-factor GARCH model

Extending previous work on hedge fund return predictability, this paper introduces the idea of modelling the conditional distribution of hedge fund returns using Student's t full-factor multivariate GARCH models. This class of models takes into account the stylized facts of hedge fund return series, that is, heteroskedasticity, fat tails and deviations from normality. For the proposed class of multivariate predictive regression models, we derive analytic expressions for the score and the Hessian matrix, which can be used within classical and Bayesian inferential procedures to estimate the model parameters, as well as to compare different predictive regression models. We propose a Bayesian approach to model comparison which provides posterior probabilities for various predictive models that can be used for model averaging. Our empirical application indicates that accounting for fat tails and time-varying covariances/correlations provides a more appropriate modelling approach of the underlying dynamics of financial series and improves our ability to predict hedge fund returns.