Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness

Disasters garner attention when they occur, and organizations commonly extract valuable lessons from visible failures, adopting new behaviors in response. For example, the United States saw numerous security policy changes following the September 11 terrorist attacks and emergency management and shelter policy changes following Hurricane Katrina. But what about those events that occur that fall short of disaster? Research that examines prior hazard experience shows that this experience can be a mixed blessing. Prior experience can stimulate protective measures, but sometimes prior experience can deceive people into feeling an unwarranted sense of safety. This research focuses on how people interpret near‐miss experiences. We demonstrate that when near‐misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur and thus provide the perception that the system is resilient to the hazard, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions. On the other hand, if near‐misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened and thus provide the perception that the system is vulnerable to the hazard, this will counter the basic “near‐miss” effect and encourage mitigation. In this article, we use these distinctions between resilient and vulnerable near‐misses to examine how people come to define an event as either a resilient or vulnerable near‐miss, as well as how this interpretation influences their perceptions of risk and their future preparedness behavior. Our contribution is in highlighting the critical role that people's interpretation of the prior experience has on their subsequent behavior and in measuring what shapes this interpretation.     

Care without coercion – mental health rights,personal recovery and trauma‐informed care

Australian mental health services continue to use involuntary measures in response to consumers' mental distress. Regardless of the intent behind these practices, the experience of being forced to receive treatment, be secluded or restrained is traumatic and can cause further distress and harm. Other parts of the health or social service system have shifted to approaches that emphasise agency, social context, prevention, and rights. Three frameworks currently used in mental health services – human rights, personal recovery, and trauma‐informed – are consistent with a shift away from the use of force. We applied these frameworks to the text of the National Standards for Mental Health Services 2010 to analyse the degree to which it reflects a shift. We also analysed the public text of speakers' notes from the Care Without Coercion Conference 2012 concerning lived experiences of force in mental health services. The analysis highlights force in many aspects of policy. The findings have implications for directions of change, including freedom from violence; support for decision making; access and choice about community and inpatient options; safety and risk management; and greater understanding of current policy frameworks through engagement with people with lived experience about the options and impact of support processes that exclude the use of force.     

Atos Healthcare withdraws from the Work Capability Assessment: a comment

In March 2014 Atos Healthcare withdrew a year early from its contract to provide the UK’s health assessment – the Work Capability Assessment (WCA) – that is supposed to sort disabled people into administrative categories according to their adjudged capability to do paid work. This move was welcomed by political elites, with, for example, UK Coalition Government Minister for Disabled People Mike Penning using it to criticise previous Labour governments for the contractual arrangements they put in place – although while the Coalition may have been concerned with the contractual arrangements soon after being formed, it extended the contract for five years. For the UK disability movement, the withdrawal of Atos Healthcare early from the WCA contract was a victory and, at least in part, a consequence of disabled activists’ resistance to the Employment and Support Allowance generally, and the WCA in particular.     

“利用影响力受贿罪”身份犯性质的质疑

＂利用影响力受贿罪＂的主体被设定为与国家工作人员具有密切关系的人员,视为身份犯。不过本罪所欲保护的法益是公务员对自身合法职权的行使的排他性而非受贿罪所要求的职务行为的廉洁性,故其不属于身份犯;另外,＂密切关系人＂这一概念的内涵无法被明确界定,缺乏被界定为身份的可操作性。因此应该合理地将本罪解释为非身份犯。     

Factors That May Influence Parent Treatment Decision Making for Young Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ABSTRACT

The number of interventions available for children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has expanded greatly in recent years, although relatively little is known about the factors that influence family caregivers as they make treatment decisions for their children. This study involved a statewide survey of parents of young children with ASD to examine the relative weights of the factors that influenced their treatment decisions. Results suggested that caregivers rely on their own intuition for much decision making, although selected professionals are also influential. Implications for professionals working with children with ASD and their families are discussed.     

The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making

Decision making theory in general, and mental models in particular, associate judgment and choice. Decision choice follows probability estimates and errors in choice derive mainly from errors in judgment. In the studies reported here we use the Monty Hall dilemma to illustrate that judgment and choice do not always go together, and that such a dissociation can lead to better decision-making. Specifically, we demonstrate that in certain decision problems, exceeding working memory limitations can actually improve decision choice. We show across four experiments that increasing the number of choice alternatives forces people to collapse choices together, resulting in better decision-making. While choice performance improves, probability judgments do not change, thus demonstrating an important dissociation between choice and probability judgments. We propose the Collapsing Choice Theory (CCT) which explains how working memory capacity, probability estimation, choice alternatives, judgment, and regret all interact and effect decision quality.      

Incorporating quality into data envelopment analysis of nursing home performance: A case study

When using data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a benchmarking technique for nursing homes, it is essential to include measures of the quality of care. We survey applications where quality has been incorporated into DEA models and consider the concerns that arise when the results show that quality measures have been effectively ignored. Three modeling techniques are identified that address these concerns. Each of these techniques requires some input from management as to the proper emphasis to be placed on the quality aspect of performance. We report the results of a case study in which we apply these techniques to a DEA model of nursing home performance. We examine in depth not only the resulting efficiency scores, but also the benchmark sets and the weights given to the input and output measures. We find that two of the techniques are effective in insuring that DEA results discriminate between high and low quality performance.     

Sexual Minority Adolescents

Abstract

Most ethical dilemmas confronting professional school counselors (PSCs) do not involve simple solutions. Therefore, to practice ethically, PSCs need to possess and have the ability to articulate their ethical decision-making process with a clear and defendable professional explanation. Specifically, this article details the ethical decision-making process for PSCs working with lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgendered (LGBT) adolescents. Additionally, ethical standards and legal statutes relating to counseling LGBT adolescents, ethical decision-making processes, and implications are discussed.     

Statisticians Can Matter

Statisticians fall far short of their potential as guides to enlightened decision making in business. Two important explanations are: (1) Decision makers are often more easily convinced by concrete examples, however fragmentary and misleading, than by competent statistical analysis. (2) The effective use of statistics in the process of decision making requires hard thinking by decision makers, thinking that cannot be delegated entirely to the statistical specialist. Modern developments in interactive statistical computing may help to reduce the force of these limitations on exploitation of statistics; used properly, computing can encourage, almost force, the student or business user of statistics to think statistically.     

Follow the leader! The peer effect in aid supply decisions

This study assesses the existence of imitative behaviour among donors in terms of their aid supply. The urgency in addressing this subject is motivated by an increasing degree of aid volatility and unpredictability which may be linked to this imitative behaviour. Our results highlight that while any connection among donor peers is a potential channel for the transmission of aid volatility, the extent of such volatility decreases significantly in the presence of established imitative behaviour. This result suggests that the promotion of donor imitative behaviour would contribute to containing the current and growing trend of volatility in aid supply.