上海推广应用电子商务的战略研究

上海发展电子商务有不少有利因素 ,但也存在明显的障碍与困难。寻找问题的症结 ,完善先进的技术手段 ,在正确的发展思路指导下 ,借助政策的引导和推动作用 ,电子商务必将有效地提升上海的贸易功能 ,极大地推动上海经济、社会的发展     

遭遇修路事件的村庄选举双重选择的集体行动

奥尔森“集体行动的逻辑”对现实中比较复杂的集体行动的解释要依赖于一个比较严格的前提假设,任何集体行动都可以还原为一定数量的同质个体在某一时刻的一次性选择,即这一理论忽略了在一个复杂的集体行动过程中集体选择的不可还原性,以及可拆解的多个集体选择的“交互性关联”。本文以河北某村基层选举与修路事件为个案,探讨了具有不同目标的集体选择叠加在同一群体的一次集体行动中时,集体行动的结果和逻辑所发生的变化,并试图以此逻辑为基础对广大农村基层选举中出现的经济精英入主村委会的现象提供一个可能的解释。     

Dynamic Decision Making when Risk Perception Depends on Past Experience

The aim of the article is to propose a preferences representation under risk where risk perception can be past experience dependent. A first step consists in considering a one-period decision problem where individual preferences are no more defined only on decisions but on pairs (decision, past experience). The obtained criterion is used in the construction of a dynamic choice model under risk. The article ends with an illustrative example concerning insurance demand. It appears that our model allows to explain modifications in the insurance demand behavior over time observed on the insurance markets for catastrophic risk and difficult to justify with standard models.     

One-reason decision-making: Modeling violations of expected utility theory

People violate expected utility theory and this has been traditionally modeled by augmenting its weight-and-add framework by nonlinear transformations of values and probabilities. Yet individuals often use one-reason decision-making when making court decisions or choosing cellular phones, and institutions do the same when creating rules for traffic safety or fair play in sports. We analyze a model of one-reason decision-making, the priority heuristic, and show that it simultaneously implies common consequence effects, common ratio effects, reflection effects, and the fourfold pattern of risk attitude. The preferences represented by the priority heuristic satisfy some standard axioms. This work may provide the basis for a new look at bounded rationality.

晚清传教士生存状态分析——以林至诚牧师为例

林志诚从一个普通的农家孩子,到后来通过自学并接受了基督教学说,再自觉地在家乡传教。作为一个农民,他成功地培养了包括林语堂在内的八个子女;作为牧师,他表现出对基督教文化的虔诚膜拜。他以他的魅力感染、教化了身边的每一个人。     

Significant harm: making professional judgements

Judging whether a child is suffering or is likely to suffer significant harm has become a critical task for professionals working with children and their families in England and Wales. Yet little guidance is available about what the phrase means in its entirety and how it should be applied in practice. This study set out to examine how the phrase was used in practice by a selected sample of experienced health and social work staff. The evidence collected suggests flaws in the general approach adopted by professionals to identification and assessment in child protection cases. The data indicate a heavy concentration of attention on the weaknesses of families being assessed rather than their strengths and on parents rather than children. Problems are identified in responding effectively to long-term, chronic abuse such as emotional abuse and neglect. The study recommends changes in practice based on these findings which have been implemented by a wide range of practice agencies within the study area. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

变动成本法在工业企业中的应用

变动成本是根据成本的性态特点,指其总额随着年产量的增减而发生同比例增减变动的成本。它主要指生产过程中耗用的直接原材料,直接人工费用和制造费用,其总额会随着产量的增减而增减。它以严格意义上的产品成本为基础,及时地实事求是地反映企业生产经营效果,避免在生产中出现的虚报,并能在一定条件下为正确地进行成本计划、成本控制和经营决策提供依据。     

What is wrong with the Mission Dependency Index for US federal infrastructure decisions?

The Mission Dependency Index (MDI) is a risk metric used by US military services and federal agencies for guiding operations, management, and funding decisions for facilities. Despite its broad adoption for guiding the expenditure of billions in federal funds, several studies on MDI suggest it may have flaws that limit its efficacy. We present a detailed technical analysis of MDI to show how its flaws impact infrastructure decisions. We present the MDI used by the US Navy and develop a critique of current methods. We identify six problems with MDI that stem from its interpretation, use, and mathematical formulation, and we provide examples demonstrating how these flaws can bias decisions. We provide recommendations to overcome flaws for infrastructure risk decision making but ultimately recommend the US government develop a new metric less susceptible to bias.     

假言联锁推理在信息分析和决策中的作用

假言联锁推理,在信息分析和决策中具有重要作用.我们可以把它运用于各种思维实践中.     

多属性隐式变权决策分析方法

为克服多因素变权决策方法的内在缺陷,基于Belton 和Gear提出的B/G-AHP层次分析原理给出了一种隐含式的多属性变权决策建模思想,并运用该思想给出了一种多属性变权决策新方法。它相对于多因素变权决策方法具有三方面的比较优势。其一,依赖的变权偏好信息直接由决策者给出,因而能够克服决策分析者对决策结果的主观武断性影响,更好地反映决策者的真实偏好。其二,不会受到由因素的属性值转化为偏好值所额外引入的主观测度偏差的干扰。其三,对决策者主观判断可能存在的误差予以了旨在弱化其影响的优化控制。数值分析表明新方法拥有较好的变权能力,并且相对于已有方法能够给出更易为决策者所接受的评价结论,因而具有较好的应用有效性。