The arithmetic of outcome editing in financial and social domains

Outcome editing refers to a set of mental rules that people apply when deciding whether to evaluate multiple outcomes jointly or separately, which subsequently affects choice. In a large-scale online survey (n = 2062) we investigate whether individuals use the same outcome editing rules for financial outcomes (e.g., a lottery win) and social outcomes (e.g., a party with friends). We also test the role of numeric ability in explaining outcome editing. Our results show that people’s preferences for combining or separating events depend on whether those events are in the financial or the social domain. Specifically, individuals were more likely to segregate social outcomes than monetary outcomes, except for when all outcomes were negative. Moreover, numeric ability was associated with preferences for outcome editing in the financial domain but not in the social domain. Our findings extend the understanding of the arithmetic operations underlying outcome editing and suggest that people rely more on calculations when making choices involving multiple financial outcomes and more on feelings when making choices involving social outcomes.     

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Consumers’ credit card repayment decisions: The role of higher anchors and future repayment concern

We investigated two aspects of credit card repayment decisions: the extent to which the anchoring effect of minimum repayment information may be mitigated by information on alternative anchors, specifically repayments that would repay the balance in two years (Study 1) or nine months (Study 2); and the role of future repayment concern. In two experiments, three realistic credit card statements were presented with different outstanding balances. Participants, who were randomly allocated to one of four information conditions depending on supplementary information provided on the statements, stated how much they would repay that month. They were then asked about concerns they would have about repayment difficulties if they had a fixed consumer loan over three years. In Study 1 the alternative two-year repayment anchor had a negative effect on percent repayment, whereas in Study 2 the nine-month repayment anchor had a significant positive effect, especially for those with higher future repayment concern. Also, in both studies, future repayment concern had a direct inverse effect on repayment decisions which partially mediated the effect of disposable income. It is concluded that the addition to credit card statements of a table of cost and duration information for a range of repayment amounts may usefully support repayment decisions.     

真实性学习理念下的教学方法及实践应用

本文分享了作者在美国研修期间亲身经历的体现真实性学习理念的三种教学方法与活动:同伴教学、跨时空对话、视频制作。通过真实再现纽约州立大学奥斯威戈分校研修课堂精彩片段,分析教学方法与原理,并探讨在国内高校尤其是教师教育课堂的应用途径。     

中国都市密集区市际关系中存在的问题及其应对

当前，中国都市密集区市际关系中存在的问题包括产业结构趋同、恶性竞争、城市定位重复混乱、地方保护主义以及基础设施重复建设等。都市密集区市际关系中存在的复杂问题，与市际关系协调机制不成熟、不完善密切相关。创新都市密集区市际关系协调的制度和机制，实现协调主体的多元化、方式多样化、目标长期化，是当前都市密集区发展中殊为迫切的任务。     

The Continuum of Care System

Abstract

The Continuum of Care System is a Decision Support System designed to assist social workers responsible for identifying and selecting alternative living arrangements for children unable to remain in their own families. The Continuum of Care System consists of two software packages called MATCH and PROFILE. MATCH produces a rank-ordered list of prospective placement alternatives by statistically comparing an individual child to groups of children previously admitted into different residential facilities. PROFILE summarizes the characteristics and problems of children at each facility in the system.     

基于Agent的情感劝说的决策过程及模型研究

Agent具有情感后进行的劝说决策会更加理性,而现有研究还不够全面深入。针对此问题,首先结合形式逻辑理论,定义了基于Agent的情感劝说及其决策过程,并将基于Agent的情感劝说的决策过程划分为评价情感劝说行为、更新情感劝说状态、调整情感劝说目标、产生情感劝说行为四个阶段;其次针对这四个阶段,结合OCC情感模型和PAD心情模型,运用多属性效用理论,引入情感淡化因子和情感评价因子,定义了Agent情感触发函数,建立了八种Agent基本情感与劝说目标的映射关系,将Agent的情感劝说行为分为奖励型、申辩型、威胁型和反辩型四类,分别构建了相应的决策模型,从而构成了更加完整和合理的基于Agent的情感劝说的决策过程模型;最后通过算例证明了模型的合理性和有效性。     

李振钧题画诗考论

李振钧出身安徽太湖官宦世家,清代道光九年状元.他的诗集《味灯听叶庐诗草》中有59首题画诗.清代题画诗的繁荣,对书画的喜爱以及与画家的广泛交游促使他创作了大量的题画诗.他的题画诗反映了他看重性情、坦率放纵、追求个性自由、热爱艺术的特点,为我们提供了观照他的新角度.诗歌书画是他安顿自己痛苦心灵的处所,也是其解救自己的途径.他的人生经历反映了一个灵魂在现实的挤压和艺术的放纵里挣扎的心路历程.最终,他为了外在的功名放弃了自我,又不能适应官场的倾轧,45岁便抑郁而终.     

基于序化机理的稳健型股票价值投资决策——一个研究框架

面对资本市场风险加剧的现实背景,以"公司经营业绩与股票市场业绩一致趋优"为稳健型投资的核心要素,立足于区间数据表示、会计信息度量两个关键要素,开展稳健型股票价值投资的多准则决策建模研究。面向稳健型投资决策目标,提出满足"稳健性""局部性""全局性"3个特性的序化机理,围绕关键特征选择、特征评价、全序化建模的主体脉络建立系统性多准则决策方法,进而构建"稳健型股票价值投资决策"的研究框架。     

李东阳佚作12则考释

周寅宾、钱振民二先生整理的《李东阳集》为目前收录李东阳作品最全的集子,然犹有未尽。通过使用少为文学研究界所关注的碑刻、书画等文献资料,辑得李东阳佚作12篇。其中《跋<夏忠靖公集>》对了解《夏忠靖集》早期面貌提供了可贵的材料。其余佚作对研究李东阳交游、书学观及其诗文系年也颇有帮助。