澳洲台湾移民居住地选择的初探

本文针对悉尼和布里斯本两个都市之台湾移民的分布及居住迁徙作深入研究。主要透过深入访谈的方法 ,系统性的针对台湾移民选择居住地的因子及决策过程进行探讨 ,并尽量以社会地理学“局内人”的观点 ,架构居住地改变和选择的逻辑来思考整个迁徙过程的机制。研究结果显示 ,随着时间的改变 ,作迁徙决策时所考量的因子也会改变。刚到澳洲时 ,选择居住地的因子主要会考量亲友意见 ;随着经验的累积及对周遭环境的熟悉 ,个别差异性开始凸显 ,每个人对居住地的选择会有不同的考量与分析。在迁居上 ,有向双拼式建筑或都市公寓型房子搬迁的趋势     

论新时期思想政治工作的创新

思想政治工作是我党的优良传统和政治优势,是一切工作取得胜利的可靠保证。面对新世纪、新形势,创新是思想政治工作的时代要求。新时期要真正使思想政治工作的创新积极、主动、稳妥、有效地取得实质性进展,应重点抓好三个方面的创新:观念上的创新、内容上的创新与充实、方法上的创新。     

美国竞选财政制度初探

美国竞选财政制度是美国政治制度中争议最多的问题之一。由于利益集团政策参与的需求和竞选人竞选的需要 ,美国的竞选捐赠日益加剧 ,捐赠规模日趋膨胀 ,并在一定程度上导致了决策过程中利益代表性的偏差。由此 ,美国早期的法律就对利益集团的竞选捐赠进行限制 ,2 0世纪 4 0年代以来 ,美国关于竞选财政制度改革的立法不断。但改革遇到利益需求和关于合宪性问题等种种障碍 ,步履维艰。美国政治中的这一两难状况是其政治体制所使然 ,有关竞选财政制度改革的争论仍将继续下去。     

用发展先进文化的理论指导高校文科学报创新

高校文科学报在高校不断深化改革的新形势下 ,应与时俱进 ,开拓创新。发展先进文化的理论对高校文科学报的创新有着重要的指导作用。只有认真学习 ,深刻领会 ,结合实际 ,准确定位 ,才能更好地用发展先进文化的思想和理论来指导高校文科学报的创新     

文章千古事,得失寸心知——评《李杜之变与唐代文化转型》

葛景春先生《李杜之变与唐代文化转型》一书不是对李杜进行简单的优劣品评,而是深入到唐代社会文化的深层结构论述从李白到杜甫的诗歌流变的现象与原因。他从李杜所处的时代的变化、文化诗潮的转型以及李杜自身原因三个方面对李杜之变进行研究,以自己独特的视角为我们剖析了以李白为代表的大唐盛世浪漫诗风向以杜甫为代表的衰变之世写实诗风的转变。     

论商法视野下的环境侵权债权人保护

企业的生产经营性行为在创造大量社会物质财富的同时也成为环境污染的主要制造者。正是这种两面性使立法者在运用传统民法价值理念对环境侵权债权人进行救济时陷入价值取向上的矛盾。鉴于企业经营行为造成的环境侵权行为所具有的商事属性,商法所具有的以"营利观"为核心的衡平价值理念,使商事责任制度和规则更加有利于受商事行为侵害的债权人的利益保护,具体体现在对绝对责任的例外适用,对纯粹经济损失的肯定态度以及对连带责任的一般性适用等方面。     

浅议我国行政规划的制定程序

作为现代行政的重要手段，行政规划在政府行政中的作用将愈加突显，与之相对应，对行政规划的规制也将愈加重要。而在其规制中，最重要的就是规范行政规划的制定程序。只有规范行政规划的制定程序，才能保证行政规划的合法性与合理性，使行政目标得以实现。     

Considerations on jury size and composition using lower probabilities

The use of lower probabilities is considered for inferences in basic jury scenarios to study aspects of the size of juries and their composition if society consists of subpopulations. The use of lower probability seems natural in law, as it leads to robust inference in the sense of providing a defendant with the benefit of the doubt. The method presented in this paper focusses on how representative a jury is for the whole population, using a novel concept of a second ’imaginary’ jury together with exchangeability assumptions. It has the advantage that there is an explicit absence of any assumption with regard to guilt of a defendant. Although the concept of a jury in law is central in the presentation, the novel approach and the conclusions of this paper hold for representative decision making processes in many fields, and it also provides a new perspective to stratified sampling.     

The Role of Behavioral Responses in the Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks on U.S. Air Travel Targets

U.S. airports and airliners are prime terrorist targets. Not only do the facilities and equipment represent high‐value assets, but the fear and dread that is spread by such attacks can have tremendous effects on the U.S. economy. This article presents the methodology, data, and estimates of the macroeconomic impacts stemming from behavioral responses to a simulated terrorist attack on a U.S. airport and on a domestic airliner. The analysis is based on risk‐perception surveys of these two scenarios. The responses relate to reduced demand for airline travel, shifts to other modes, spending on nontravel items, and savings of potential travel expenditures by U.S. resident passengers considering flying domestic routes. We translate these responses to individual spending categories and feed these direct impact results into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy to ascertain the indirect and total impacts on both the airline industry and the economy as a whole. Overall, the estimated impacts on GDP of both types of attacks exceed $10B. We find that the behavioral economic impacts are almost an order of magnitude higher than the ordinary business interruption impacts for the airliner attack and nearly two orders of magnitude higher for the airport attack. The results are robust to sensitivity tests on the travel behavior of U.S. residents in response to terrorism.     

Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness

Disasters garner attention when they occur, and organizations commonly extract valuable lessons from visible failures, adopting new behaviors in response. For example, the United States saw numerous security policy changes following the September 11 terrorist attacks and emergency management and shelter policy changes following Hurricane Katrina. But what about those events that occur that fall short of disaster? Research that examines prior hazard experience shows that this experience can be a mixed blessing. Prior experience can stimulate protective measures, but sometimes prior experience can deceive people into feeling an unwarranted sense of safety. This research focuses on how people interpret near‐miss experiences. We demonstrate that when near‐misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur and thus provide the perception that the system is resilient to the hazard, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions. On the other hand, if near‐misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened and thus provide the perception that the system is vulnerable to the hazard, this will counter the basic “near‐miss” effect and encourage mitigation. In this article, we use these distinctions between resilient and vulnerable near‐misses to examine how people come to define an event as either a resilient or vulnerable near‐miss, as well as how this interpretation influences their perceptions of risk and their future preparedness behavior. Our contribution is in highlighting the critical role that people's interpretation of the prior experience has on their subsequent behavior and in measuring what shapes this interpretation.