A class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap times

In this article, we propose a general class of partially linear transformation models for recurrent gap time data, which extends the linear transformation models by incorporating non linear covariate effects and includes the partially linear proportional hazards and the partially linear proportional odds models as special cases. Both global and local estimating equations are developed to estimate the parametric and non parametric covariate effects, and the asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established. The finite-sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies, and an application to a clinic study on chronic granulomatous disease is provided.     

历史文献学视野下的重大历史事件

重大历史事件的提出源于国家文艺创作政策,是重大历史题材的内核。从历史文献学的视角来看,重大历史事件的文献形态表现为本源事件、衍生事件和文本事件。重大历史事件的衍生特征主要体现为本源事件的内容选择性、视角多样性、衍生多态性和历史叙事的结构层次性。重大历史事件具有文献能产性,其根本动力来源于历史主体的社会认可需要、纪念活动的客观物证需要和文艺创作的传奇叙事需要。     

No Expo Network: a failed mobilization in a post-political frame

In 2015 Milan hosted the Universal Exposition with the theme ‘Feeding the Planet, Energy for Life’. Even if characterized by various scandals and problems, the edition was narrated by the mainstream media as a political and economic success. Critical voices were almost completely obscured by favorable propaganda and the ideas of development and the future proposed by the Expo rhetoric was presented as inevitable, configuring ‘the best of all possible worlds’ in a more general post-political frame. In this profile I first present the main characteristics of the No Expo Network, e.g. the actors that composed it and the main critiques that they advanced. I will then focus on the reasons for its defeat, which is then contextualized in relation to the election of the Chief Executive Officer of Expo 2015 as new Mayor of Milan. Here, we can see the continuation and structural strengthening of the neoliberal politics of Expo2015 beyond the mega event itself.     

中国决策情境下的多源流模型及其优化研究

作为当今公共政策研究领域最炙手可热的理论模型之一,约翰·金登的多源流分析理论业已得到国内外学者的广泛应用与认可。在对该模型的相关内容进行简单铺陈后,通过辨析国内外不同的政策主体参与逻辑,进一步厘清了我国公共决策的独有特征。研究重点是在整合提炼西方既有修正思路的基础上,沿袭模型的模糊性假设,结合我国具体实践案例,对多源流模型进行优化与补充。研究表明,中国决策情境下的多源流模型优化主要有提高源流间的融合性、政治源流的核心化、焦点事件的独立化以及特殊情况下的临时决策等四种路径,四种优化与补充路径的有机结合将为进一步提升模型适用性提供帮助。     

Optimal cut-off for rare events and unbalanced misclassification costs

This paper develops a method for handling two-class classification problems with highly unbalanced class sizes and misclassification costs. When the class sizes are highly unbalanced and the minority class represents a rare event, conventional classification methods tend to strongly favour the majority class, resulting in very low detection of the minority class. A method is proposed to determine the optimal cut-off for asymmetric misclassification costs and for unbalanced class sizes. Monte Carlo simulations show that this proposal performs better than the method based on the notion of classification accuracy. Finally, the proposed method is applied to empirical data on Italian small and medium enterprises to classify them into default and non-default groups.     

路径与旨趣：近代浙江文化史研究嬗变

近代江南史研究见证并参与了近代中国社会文化的变迁,相比上海、苏南等地,浙江近代文化史研究亟需进一步拓展与深化。以革命与事件、结构与认同、学人与学派等研究路径为线索,回顾浙江近代文化史研究的关键要素,应能展望今后研究的方向：去意识形态化、突破单向度思维,以多元视角阐释近代浙江的革命群体与事件;揭示近代浙江文化现象背后深层次的社会关系和权力关系、结构与心态、集体记忆与文化认同,进一步认知近代精英与民众、国家与社会的能动关系;浙江学人在近代学术流变中发挥承前启后的作用,学人学术思想的本意及其实践成为近代浙学重建的重要参考。运用整体视角综合事件、结构、学理,积极拓展史料与理论范式,深入发掘近代浙江文化的历史经验和内在脉络,将为探索中国原理提供有效的知识与思想资源。     

Semiparametric Estimation of a Change-point for Recurrent Events Data

One particular recurrent events data scenario involves patients experiencing events according to a common intensity rate, and then a treatment may be applied. The treatment might be effective for a limited amount of time, so that the intensity rate would be expected to change abruptly when the effect of the treatment wears out. In particular, we allow models for the intensity rate, post-treatment, to be at first decreasing and then change to increasing (and vice versa). Two estimators of the location of this change are proposed.     

重大公共卫生事件背景下的青年思想政治教育工作

新冠疫情的暴发作为一场全球性重大公共卫生事件对青年思想状况产生了较大影响。思想政治教育必须回应青年的思想关切,并给予及时的引导。基于重大公共卫生事件做好思想政治教育工作有五个基本着力点,即：以树立正确的灾难观为着力点,培养危机意识和担当精神;以倡导科学应对疫情为着力点,提高理性思辨能力和自我防护能力;以讲好中国抗疫经验为着力点,增强四个意识,坚定四个自信;以反思人与自然关系为着力点,增强自然保护意识和生态文明理念;以关注全球抗疫大局为着力点,筑牢人类命运共同体意识。     

一场声势浩大的新闻事件策划——浅析《金沙》的推广宣传策略

“新闻事件策划”这个命题自上世纪九十年代中期被提出以后,长期受到广泛争议和关注。在笔者的研究中,以一系列新闻事件策划的理论和实践研究成果为评判标准,主要关注成都市历时打造一年的文化名片“金沙”,以及作为媒体聚焦点的《金沙》音乐剧。在分析“金沙”成功的造势背后,揭示这条“金光闪闪”的文化产业链运作的新思路。     

唐代佛教与山水共生的寺院诗

在中国诗史上,唐代是寺院诗创作的转进与勃兴期,作品数量及题材拓展均取得极大突破。在书写模式上,相继形成藉景畅理、触境明心、纪实绘景三种类型,充分体现佛教与山水互彰的共生性,为山水诗开拓出全新境界。唐人寺院诗重写景造境,常以动静相生法状清寂之景,物态生动,意境幽玄。寺院诗在艺术表现上追求警策,字锻句炼,隽语频出,普遍形成以精切之语状绝胜之景的艺术效果。