Exploring the Moderating Influence of Delinquent Peers on the Link Between Trauma, Anger, and Violence Among Male Youth: Implications for Social Work Practice

This study’s objective was to explore the influence of delinquent peer exposure, on the relationship between male youths’ histories of trauma, anger, and violent behavior. Using a nationally representative sample of male adolescents aged 12–17 and self report interviews, information was gathered on their levels of exposure to violence, stressful life events (SLE), anger, depression, delinquent peer exposure, and violent behavior. Results of a moderation analyses revealed that youth who reported higher levels of exposure to trauma, anger, and delinquent peers were at an increased risk for anger and for violent offending. Delinquent peer exposure exerted a significant interaction effect on the relationship between anger and violent offending. The implications for prevention and intervention efforts are delineated.     

Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis1

Single-objective-based decision-tree analysis has been extensively and successfully used in numerous decision-making problems since its formal introduction by Howard Raiffa more than two decades ago. This paper extends the traditional methodology to incorporate multiple noncommensurate objective functions and use of the conditional expected value of the risk of extreme and catastrophic events. The proposed methodology considers the cases where (a) a finite number of actions are available at each decision node and (b) discrete or continuous states of nature can be presented at each chance node. The proposed extension of decision-tree analysis is introduced through an example problem that leads the reader step-by-step into the methodological procedure. The example problem builds on flood warning systems. Two noncommensurate objectives—the loss of lives and the loss of property (including monetary costs of the flood warning system)–are incorporated into the decision tree. In addition, two risk measures—the common expected value and the conditional expected value of extreme and catastrophic events—are quantified and are also incorporated into the decision-making process. Theoretical difficulties associated with the stage-wise calculation of conditional expected values are identified and certain simplifying assumptions are made for computational tractibility. In particular, it is revealed that decisions concerning experimentation have a very interesting impact on the noninferior solution set of options—a phenomenon that has no equivalence in the single-objective case.     

研究生招生工作中的小概率事件及其预防

利用小概率原理分析研究生招生工作中的突发事件,提出了导致小概率事件发生的原因有重复效应、数量累积效应和群众检验效应,认为在招生工作中要树立小概率事件意识,科学设计招生工作流程,建立应对小概率事件的制度,以更有效地应对小概率事件。     

我国大型体育赛事场馆设施赛后利用对策研究

采用问卷调查法、数理统计法和文献资料法等研究方法就我国大型体育赛事场馆的赛后利用现状进行分析。认为其现状主要表现为对外开放率逐步提高,社会效益、经济效益并重;整体经营状况不容乐观,"自我造血"能力不强;"本体经营"为主,经营范围、方式进一步扩展;经营观念逐步改善,但营销观念相对滞后等方面。在此基础上,提出建前统筹规划、拓宽融资渠道、转变经营管理模式、开展多种经营、为职业体育赛事的发展提供平台、体教结合、开发场馆无形资产等对策建议。     

论政社关系视域下的治理现代化——基于4类群体性事件的研究

群体性事件的频发以及社会不稳定因素的增加,需要重新思考政府与社会之间的关系,实现群体性事件的治理现代化以增加政府合法性和增强社会活力。通过构建政府与社会关系的理论分析框架,对当前中国四类群体性事件进行阐释。研究发现:当前中国强政府与弱社会的关系格局只是宏观的概况,微观上则呈现为具有自主性、自利性和独立性的强势基层政府与弱势的社会,正是因为基层政府的强势,而引发不同类型的社会群体性事件。因此,政社关系视角下群体性事件的治理现代化应从治理行为、治理主体、治理机制、调解层次以及考核评估等五方面着手。     

群体性事件网络助燃作用研究

关系复杂化、媒体迎合化、网民偏激化是群体性事件网络助燃的主要因素;数量逻辑、见证逻辑、损害逻辑是群体性事件网络助燃的主要逻辑;“倒置”式、“闪爆”式、“混搭”式是群体性事件网络助燃的主要模式。依法治理网络谣言、重塑媒体责任担当、引导网络舆论推进改革是群体性事件网络阻燃的可行机制。     

利用网络热点事件引导大学生养成良好社会心态

随着网络和网络媒体的发展,当代大学生对社会热点事件的关注度和参与度与日俱增。网络热点事件反映的社会现象和折射的社会问题对即将步入社会的大学生来说具有重要的引导作用,对其社会心态的形成具有重要的影响。高校思想政治工作应引导大学生正确运用网络技术,提高信息分析能力;正确看待社会转型期的各种问题;不断推进思想政治教育现代化发展。同时,国家应积极引导网络媒体,净化网络舆论空间,为大学生成长提供健康的网络环境。     

于右任新闻思想浅议

于右任是中国近代著名报人,他的新闻思想具体包括:报纸兼具革命喉舌与民众喉舌的双重功能观,首重社评的言论观,德才兼备的新闻人才观。在新闻业务方面,于右任认为报纸要重视记者队伍的建设、重视外电翻译与国际新闻报道、重视报纸的经济属性、要有丰富多样的专栏形式。     

Joint modelling of longitudinal biomarker and gap time between recurrent events: copula-based dependence

In this paper, we will extend the joint model of longitudinal biomarker and recurrent event via copula function for accounting the dependence between the two processes. The general idea of joining separate processes by allowing model-specific random effect may come from different families distribution. It is a main advantage of the proposed method that a copula construction does not constrain the choice of marginal distributions of random effects. A maximum likelihood estimation with importance sampling technique as a simple and easy understanding method is employed to model inference. To evaluate and verify the validation of the proposed joint model, a bootstrapping method as a model-based resampling is developed. Our proposed joint model is also applied to pemphigus disease data for assessing the effect of biomarker trajectory on risk of recurrence.     

Data Dependent Cells Chi‐Square Test With Recurrent Events

We consider a recurrent event wherein the inter‐event times are independent and identically distributed with a common absolutely continuous distribution function F. In this article, interest is in the problem of testing the null hypothesis that F belongs to some parametric family where the q‐dimensional parameter is unknown. We propose a general Chi‐squared test in which cell boundaries are data dependent. An estimator of the parameter obtained by minimizing a quadratic form resulting from a properly scaled vector of differences between Observed and Expected frequencies is used to construct the test. This estimator is known as the minimum chi‐square estimator. Large sample properties of the proposed test statistic are established using empirical processes tools. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the test under parameter misspecification, and our procedures are applied to a fleet of Boeing 720 jet planes' air conditioning system failures.