道德建设的市场取向与社会取向

现阶段道德建设中有两种不同的取向,即市场取向与社会取向.在社会主义市场经济条件下道德建设的市场取向有其必然性和必要性,它的伦理实质是利己与利他的统一.道德建设的社会取向作为一种非市场取向,最主要内容是"为人民服务"和集体主义原则.两种取向在指导道德建设的过程中产生了一定程度的冲突.社会主义道德建设的顺利进行要求通过整合实现两种取向的互补统一.     

What drives alignment between offered and perceived well-being initiatives in organizations? A cross-case analysis of employer–employee shared strategic intentionality

This study investigates the conditions of alignment between an organization's business strategy and the well-being initiatives (WBIs) offered to employees and employees' perceptions of the latter. We conducted a comparative study on the conditions of alignment between offered and perceived WBIs in three companies with different business strategies. Findings highlight that the alignment between offered and perceived benefits depends on what we label as “shared strategic intentionality”: (1) how employers use their understanding of the organization's business strategy to craft WBIs and (2) employees' attributions about why their employers offer WBIs the way they do and of the broader understanding of the organization's business strategy. We contribute to the strategic HRM literature by proposing an integrative position with regard to the macro (i.e., employer-focused) and micro (i.e., employee-focused) research traditions. Our position has the advantage of looking at employers' intentions and at employees' attributions of intentions simultaneously, and unravels the central role of business strategy in shaping their alignment. From a practical standpoint, not only do we bring a more nuanced understanding of the strategic HRM challenges faced by employers and employees in settings with different business strategies, but we also initiate a discussion about the traps and best practices associated with configuring effective WBIs in organizations.     

基于拔靴滤波历史模拟法的黄金市场VaR测度研究

传统历史模拟法（THS，Tranditional Historical Simulation）和滤波历史模拟法（FHS，Filtered Historical Simulation）是国际商业银行使用最多的VaR预测方法。首先，论文在已有研究成果的基础上，构造了BHW（Bootstraped Hull and White）历史模拟法；然后，以国内黄金交易数据为样本，采用6种严谨的后验分析（Backtesting analysis）方法，对BHW方法及几种主流历史模拟法、GARCH模型方法的VaR预测精确性进行了实证分析。论文的主要结论包括：（1）综合论文所采用的几种金融风险测度方法来看，BHW方法表现出了相对较好的精确性，而实务界中广泛使用的THS方法则表现出了最差的精确性；（2）不同的历史模拟法受样本规模因素影响的程度显著不同，例如THS方法和HW方法均不同程度的受到了样本规模因素影响；（3）总体来看，BHW方法表现出了相对较好的风险预测精确性，可以作为测度黄金市场风险的选择之一。     

企业集群产品质量监管演化与仿真研究

产品质量造假屡禁不止，如何在有限监管资源下对大量企业的产品质量有效监管是质量监管部门面临的难题。不同于实际操作中按照企业规模（大中小各占一定比例）制定监督抽查方案，本文提出在企业集群演化视角制定监管策略，分别研究了免检与全检、企业整群抽检和企业分层抽检四种不同抽检策略下的企业集群演化规律。研究发现：采取免检时，质量处罚仅是不可信威胁导致"监管失灵"，企业集群均演化到质量造假；采取全检时，企业集群演化取决于质量处罚能否完全覆盖质量造假成本缩减；在企业整群抽检和企业分层抽检策略下，分别得到质量处罚与抽检概率的提升路径及对应的企业集群演化路径，若想使企业集群均演化到标准质量，需参照企业集群中最大的成本缩减和竞争收益设置质量处罚，处罚越低所需的抽检概率就越高，企业分层抽检可以降低企业集群演化到标准质量所需的整体抽检概率。     

金融危机10年来中国股市动态演化与市场稳健研究——一个基于复杂网络视角的实证

将复杂网络理论最小生成树（MST）算法和滑窗分析相结合，在2008年全球金融危机和2015年中国股市震荡的背景下，以2003年至2017年的上证A股收益率数据作为实证样本，构建股票市场动态关联网络，并从网络节点移除和连边变化两个角度出发，对其在不同时期的动态演化特征和市场稳健性质进行探讨。研究结果表明：网络结构整体上在金融危机之前和之后较为松散，而在金融危机和股市震荡期间则变得非常紧凑，节点的度分布和影响强度分布更加聚集。这意味着在金融危机和股市震荡期间，系统重要性公司的影响力持续增强，其股价的变化对其它公司将产生更为显著的影响；不同类型的事件对股市网络连通性和稳健性的影响程度不同，区域性事件（股市震荡）比全球性事件（金融危机）对市场的冲击更大；短期来看，金融危机和股市震荡对网络连边的稳健性并没有造成太大的冲击，整个研究时段网络的存活比率都维持在较高的水平。但随着步长的增加，网络的存活比率急剧下降，这意味着股市网络相关结构的长期稳健性是减弱的。     

相关性下的银行风险集成研究综述

银行风险之间的相关关系会使风险之间相互转化，相互影响，令风险呈现出放大或者缩小的趋势，显著影响着银行风险度量结果的准确性。银行风险集成致力于在充分考虑银行风险相关关系的基础上，对银行风险进行较为准确的度量。但是银行风险具有相关关系种类繁多、表现形式复杂、以及数据的可获得性差等显著特征，导致银行风险的集成度量领域存在诸多挑战。本文对相关性下的银行风险集成研究进行综述，具体从集成对象、集成方法和集成数据三个层次系统展开。首先对银行风险及其蕴含的种类繁多的相关关系类型进行解析，然后分析银行风险相关关系表征出的多种复杂特性，根据对这些特性的刻画能力对银行风险的集成方法进行划分和比较，最后总结了获取银行风险集成数据的多种途径。在此基础上，进一步分析了银行风险集成研究的难点和未来趋势。     

产学研合作的博弈分析及动力机制

以演化博弈为主要分析工具,构建了产方与学研方演化博弈模型,进行了演化稳定策略分析。结果表明:在进行合作教育时,产方与学研方的积极合作是双方的良性演化稳定策略。分析认为,双方最终选择何种策略受到产方与学研方的内在需要和政府部门的外部介入的影响。     

Evaluation of strategies to mitigate contagion spread using social network characteristics

Computer simulation is an effective tool for assessing mitigation strategies, with recent trends concentrating on agent-based techniques. These methods require high computational efforts in order to simulate enough scenarios for statistical significance. The population individuals and their contacts determined by agent-based simulations form a social network. For some network structures it is possible to gain high accuracy estimates of contagion spread based on the connection structure of the network, an idea that is utilized in this work. A representative social network constructed from the 2006 census of the Greater Toronto Area (Ontario, Canada) of 5 million individuals in 1.8 million households is used to demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. We examine the effects of six mitigation strategies with respect to their ability to contain disease spread as indicated by pre- and post-vaccination reproduction numbers, mean local clustering coefficients and degree distributions. One outcome of the analysis provides evidence supporting the design of mitigation strategies that aim to fragment the population into similarly sized components. While our analysis is framed in the context of pandemic disease spread, the approach is applicable to any contagion such as computer viruses, rumours, social trends, and so on.     

Using a Stakeholder Participatory Model in a Community-Wide Service Needs Assessment of Elderly Residents

ABSTRACT

This paper discusses a collaborative approach to a community-wide needs assessment in a county in Ohio. A neighborhood service provider for elderly residents in the community initiated the research project. To promote ownership in the evaluation process and to conserve resources, the evaluators used a stakeholder participatory approach. This effort not only resulted in increased cooperation among all parties involved (stakeholders, evaluators, community agencies), but culminated in the acceptance and utilization of controversial findings.     

论自信

缺乏自信是大学生身上常见的心理问题，也是素质教育中迫切需要解决的问题，我们应充分认识自信的本质、内涵及其结构，并从学生心理素质教育的角度，重视培养大学生自信心的训练程序与方法。