Human Salmonellosis: Estimation of Dose-Illness from Outbreak Data

The quantification of the relationship between the amount of microbial organisms ingested and a specific outcome such as infection, illness, or mortality is a key aspect of quantitative risk assessment. A main problem in determining such dose-response models is the availability of appropriate data. Human feeding trials have been criticized because only young healthy volunteers are selected to participate and low doses, as often occurring in real life, are typically not considered. Epidemiological outbreak data are considered to be more valuable, but are more subject to data uncertainty. In this article, we model the dose-illness relationship based on data of 20 Salmonella outbreaks, as discussed by the World Health Organization. In particular, we model the dose-illness relationship using generalized linear mixed models and fractional polynomials of dose. The fractional polynomial models are modified to satisfy the properties of different types of dose-illness models as proposed by Teunis et al . Within these models, differences in host susceptibility (susceptible versus normal population) are modeled as fixed effects whereas differences in serovar type and food matrix are modeled as random effects. In addition, two bootstrap procedures are presented. A first procedure accounts for stochastic variability whereas a second procedure accounts for both stochastic variability and data uncertainty. The analyses indicate that the susceptible population has a higher probability of illness at low dose levels when the combination pathogen-food matrix is extremely virulent and at high dose levels when the combination is less virulent. Furthermore, the analyses suggest that immunity exists in the normal population but not in the susceptible population.     

论学生社团建设与高校思想政治工作的融合

近年来,学生社团的不断壮大,为高校思想政治工作开辟了新的领域和提供了新的载体;同时,思想政治工作进学生社团,为学生社团可持续发展提供了强大的动力,二者的融合有效地推进了大学生的素质教育。     

Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: Information Tools for Community Adaptation to Changes in Climate or Land Use

To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decision makers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decision makers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these; they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decision makers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decision makers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change.     

交际策略的教学与运用

语言交际教学法的目的是提高学习者的交际能力。然而 ,作为交际能力的一个重要组成部分———策略能力 ,却被教师们忽略。交际策略的可教性依然是个有争议的问题。本文首先陈述交际策略的重要性 ,以便唤起教师的注意力 ;其次 ,分析影响学习者交际策略使用的因素 ;第三部分提出了交际策略的教学方法     

论语言交际与方言的"乡土根性"

本文论述了语言交际中的共同语与方言的固习性之间的关系 ,并从肖伯纳戏剧《卖花女》切入 ,阐述了标准英语与方言的优劣。笔者调查研究了在英国剑桥学习的 3 0名中国留学生的英语语音情况 ,结果显示汉语方言中鼻音n与l边音分辨不清者 ,对英语中 [n]和 [l]的正确发音具有持久的障碍性 ,即“乡土根性”。克服这种障碍的最佳办法并非语言环境 ,而是语言学习中所采取的策略     

HL7标准在医疗仪器通讯中的应用

介绍通过编程实现以HL7标准的检验数据在检验仪器与临床检验信息系统(clinical labora-tory information system,CLIS)之间的数据格式转换,从而解决各种检验仪器的接口软件重用性问题,并保证数据交换的准确性.国内外检验仪器的生产厂家应尽快应用HL7标准,规范仪器通讯接口的数据通讯.     

PC看门狗的原理与实现

根据单片机防止程序飞出的原理，创新性的提出了PC机在无人看管下，计算机如何判断当前的运行状态，以及在无法相应其他进程时，实现自动重启的方法。从单片机的看门狗实现原理，可在PC机上实现类似看门狗的功能。介绍了PC WATHDOG的软硬件实现，以及如何设计串口通讯协议，使PC WATCHDOG通过串口接收发送通讯帧和控制帧，进行交互，达到看门狗的功能。     

语篇中的语气分析及研究

语言是一种交际工具,作为人际意义的语气在交际过程中起非常重要的作用,使用不同的语气可能会产生截然不同的效果。文章从语境暗示、人际关系、连贯性和交际目的等方面阐述了语篇中语气的选择。第一部分阐述语气和语境的关系;第二部分阐述语气如何体现人际关系;第三部分阐述语气如何达到语篇中的连贯性;第四部分阐述语气的选择与交际的目的。其目的在于阐明选择恰当的语气,能实现有效的交际。     

网络对大学生政治社会化影响实证研究

对7所高校1 300多名大学生的问卷调查显示,网络对大学生政治社会化具有一定影响,学生政治社会化状况随其上网频率不同而不同。主要体现在:政治知识方面,高频率上网者对时事知识的掌握程度较好;政治价值倾向方面,高频率上网者在国家民族意识方面与其他频率上网者无差别,但其对政府和现行政策认同程度明显偏低;政治参与倾向方面,高频率上网者相对其他频率上网者而言参与态度较消极,对表达意见的途径了解较少,在政治效能认识上比较悲观,权利和义务意识比较薄弱。因此,需要加强网络监管和网络建设,克服网络对青年的消极影响,完善网络媒体政治社会化功能。     

从天命史观向社会进化史观的过渡--论清代学人为中国社会自我演变所做的史观准备

由“公羊学”所宣扬的天命史观,是将社会的变化视为天道运行“副本”的观念。它既宣扬“君权天授”,又承认“天命所授者博,非独一姓”,认定社会在周期性的循环中发展。但在整个中世纪,“君权天授”的观念一直是维护家天下专制制度的精神武器。在从古代社会向近代转型的过程中,“前清”学者在批评天命史观时,将主宰人类命运主体的“天”置换为“社会”;到了清代中期,“常州”学人则注意到“天命”史学中所包含的变易思想;晚清之时,恰遇“千年未遇之变局”,康有为等一方面援引前清学者的社会主体观念,另一方面则直接将公羊学的变易思想与西学相对接,于是,“通三统”、“张三世”、“《春秋》当新王”便被改造成社会进化论学说。