网络群体事件政府治理的演化博弈分析

利用演化博弈模型预测舆论的发展趋势,对政府应对网络群体事件采取的治理模式进行了研究.在一般化复制动态模型基础上建立网络群体事件舆论的传播方程,将地方政府部门与弱势群体的策略互动和行为演化融入到传染病传播模型中,用以模拟舆论的扩散和收敛过程.结果表明:在网络群体事件初期,如果弱势群体通过抗争获得政府补偿的概率不断增大,将造成事态的扩大.此时,地方政府应控制信息的交流程度与初始抗争人数,减缓舆论的扩散;在网络群体事件舆论大范围扩散阶段,上级政府介入并采取惩罚措施,及时披露信息,促使网络舆论的收敛平息,实现社会福利最大化.     

Do All Activities “Weigh” Equally? How Different Physical Activities Differ as Predictors of Weight

In Britain, it is recommended that, to stay healthy, adults should do 150 minutes of moderate‐intensity physical activity every week. The recommendations provided by the U.K. government, however, remain silent in regard to the type of activity that should be done. Using the annual Health Survey for England we compare how different types of physical activities predict a person's weight. In particular, we consider clinically measured body mass index and waist circumference. We document mean slopes emanating from ordinary least squares regressions with these measures as the dependent variables. We show that individuals who walk at a brisk or fast pace are more likely to have a lower weight when compared to individuals doing other activities. Additionally, we highlight that the association between physical activity and weight is stronger for females and individuals over the age of 50. Our overall conclusions are robust to a number of specifications.     

面向在线定制的配置BOM及约束下在线配置过程研究

分析了顾客在线定制产品时重视的因素;提出了面向在线定制的配置BOM的概念,并且详细介绍了其具体内容;定义了在线配置过程的原则和配置依据;应用配置矩阵对零部件和零件属性的配置过程进行了详细的分析,同时给出了配置后产品的价格计算方法.在文章结论中,将本文提出的概念和方法与文献中提到的方法进行了仔细的比较,总结出其主要优势.     

A Simple Formula for Calculating the "Mass Density" of a Lognormally Distributed Characteristic: Applications to Risk Analysis

Statements such as "80% of the employees do 20% of the work" or "the richest 1% of society controls 10% of its assets" are commonly used to describe the distribution or concentration of a variable characteristic within a population. Analogous statements can be constructed to reflect the relationship between probability and concentration for unvarying quantities surrounded by uncertainty. Both kinds of statements represent specific usages of a general relationship, the "mass density function," that is not widely exploited in risk analysis and management. This paper derives a simple formula for the mass density function when the uncertainty and/or the variability in a quantity is lognormally distributed; the formula gives the risk analyst an exact, "back-of-the-envelope" method for determining the fraction of the total amount of a quantity contained within any portion of its distribution. For example, if exposures to a toxicant are lognormally distributed with σ_{in x}= 2, 50% of all the exposure is borne by the 2.3% of persons most heavily exposed. Implications of this formula for various issues in risk assessment are explored, including: (1) the marginal benefits of risk reduction; (2) distributional equity and risk perception; (3) accurate confidence intervals for the population mean when a limited set of data is available; (4) the possible biases introduced by the uncritical assumption that extreme "outliers" exist; and (5) the calculation of the value of new information.     

公共危机状态下的大众传媒与社会控制

在现代信息社会中，作为次级系统的大众传媒通过影响环境认知、促成社会共识、引导社会舆论，对整个社会系统产生能动作用。但在公共危机状态下，大众传媒的“双刃剑”属性相当明显，既有社会控制的正功能，也存在负效应。因此，需注意探索和掌握公共危机管理中的信息传播规律，加强对大众传媒的积极控制，提升和完善社会控制策略，维护社会秩序，凝聚社会力量，为战胜危机营造有利的社会环境。     

大众传媒中的女性危机及其对策

由于大众传媒所植根的社会文化是以男权意识为主导的文化，其长期积淀的对女性的歧视，使大众传媒这一两性共同的平台倾斜成男性的舞台，而大众传媒商业化的本性又和男权意识合谋，制造的消费文化使女性更沦为男性欲望的对象，成为被观赏者、被审美的客体，女性在媒体中被物化、异化成为必然。因此，在整个社会宣传两性平等观念显得十分必要，以期扭转大众传媒对女性的歧视。     

略论民族传统节日的群众文化活动

本文论述民族传统节日的形成,以及民族传统节日群众文化的特征及其作用。     

对大众文化全球化发展态势中的文化霸权问题研究

大众文化全球化已成为当代文化发展的趋势,但由于西方发达国家与发展中国家文化发展的不平衡状况,也带来了西方大众文化对发展中国家的强势输入。在这种形势下,对发展中国家的弱势地位和被动处境我们要有客观的判断,在文化交流中既保持和发展自己的民族文化,抵制西方文化霸权主义,又不能因此走向极端,完全否定一切西方思想文化。应呼唤理性与宽容,倡导对话与相互尊重,最大限度地防止和减少文化矛盾与冲突,这样才能促进世界的和平与发展,推动中国大众文化的建设与发展,弘扬民族优秀文化。     

90年代的叙事转型与新世纪的文化转向

20世纪90年代发生的新生代和私人化两次小说叙事转型,不仅是作家文学观念的变化使然,同时也与这个时期大众文化兴起所形成的社会文化氛围密切相关。进入新世纪之后的文化转向,使文学更趋边缘化。但如果人们以发展的眼光来看待文学,就不会对文学的处境抱悲观态度。     

Tracing Protest Motives: The Link Between Newspaper Coverage,Movement Messages,and Demonstrators’ Reasons to Protest

Within the social movement literature, it is mostly assumed that the reasons why people join a protest demonstration are in line with the collective action frames of the organizations staging the protest. Some recent studies suggest, however, that protesters’ motives are only partly aligned with the messages that are broadcasted by social movements. This study argues that activists’ motives are for an important part shaped by mass media coverage on the protest issue. It investigates the link between people's reasons to protest, the campaign messages of the protest organizers, and newspaper coverage prior to the demonstration. Data cover 14 anti‐austerity demonstrations in Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Results show that social movements depend a lot on other political actors to gain media visibility for their messages. Furthermore, the relationship between social movement frames and protest participant motives is mediated by newspaper coverage. Protest organizers’ are able to reach demonstrators via their own communication channels to some extent, but for many of their messages, they also rely on journalists’ reporting about the protest issue.