基于超总体模型的设计效应分解

本文基于超总体模型研究抽样调查中设计效应的计算问题。首先以随机效应模型为基础，明确了简单随机、二阶段、不等概率和分层抽样对应的超总体模型，进而通过所给模型推导出分层、类集、加权单因素设计效应的计算公式和多因素组合的设计效应计算公式并给出了对应估计量，公式表明：多因素同时存在的组合设计效应等于对应单因素设计效应的乘积。最后，对设计效应的理论值、估计值和真实值之间的关系进行了蒙特卡洛仿真，并利用相对偏倚、相对均方误进行了评价。本文的研究，对复杂抽样设计中正确计算、使用设计效应具有指导意义。     

学习迁移的系统理论:PPEE理论模型的建构和意义

学习是人类社会永恒的主题。为了更好地利用过去的经验，增强学习效果，个人和组织进行学习迁移具有重要意义。学习迁移是指将在以往通过学习或解决问题所获得的经验，用于解决之后所遇到的问题。本文力图建立系统的学习迁移理论，研究人、问题、环境的因素对于学习迁移的影响。本文采用理论推导的研究方法，在前人研究的基础上，提出相应的理论模型。本文运用系统的观点，构建了学习迁移的PPEE理论模型，认为人的因素、问题的因素、人和问题的交互作用、以及环境的调节作用，会共同影响学习迁移的效果。本理论主要从五个方面论述学习迁移的机制。首先，将人的因素按照不同层面划分为后端基本能力、中端心理过程、前端知识结构，讨论了其各自对学习迁移效果的直接影响。其次，将问题的因素划分为形象相似性和抽象相似性，并根据这两个维度构建了四种问题间关系类型，并探究了其与学习迁移效果之间的关系。第三，同时考虑人的因素和问题的因素，研究了二者之间的互动对于学习迁移效果的影响。第四，将环境因素划分为时间紧迫性和空间重要性两个维度，探讨了人和环境，以及问题和环境之间的互动对学习迁移效果的影响。第五，基于系统整体的方面，研究人、问题、环境三者之间的互动对学习迁移效果的交互影响。本文还认为，该模型不仅适用于个人，也同样适用于团队、组织、地区、甚至国家和社会等各个层面，影响各个层面主体的学习迁移。本文最后总结了研究的理论和实践贡献，并提出了未来研究课题。本文对丰富学习理论、特别是学习迁移理论，以及推动教育和管理实践的发展进步具有重要的意义。     

A fistful of euros: Is the German one‐euro job workfare scheme effective for participants?

Hohmeyer K, Wolff J. A fistful of euros: is the German one‐euro job workfare scheme effective for participants? Welfare reforms have constituted a major policy issue in many OECD countries in recent decades. In Germany, a major reform in 2005 emphasised the activation of welfare recipients and introduced a workfare programme –‘One‐Euro Jobs’– on a large scale. In the present study, the impact of one‐euro jobs on the employment prospects of different groups of participants was estimated. The analysis was conducted on a large sample of welfare recipients using propensity score matching. The sample of one‐euro job participants and other welfare recipients was drawn from administrative records comprising all those who started their participation in the programme in early 2005. Our results showed that participation slightly improved the medium‐term employment prospects for women but not for men. Participation reduced the employment rate of participants younger than 25 years but raised it for some of the older participant groups. In conclusion, one‐euro jobs are effective for participants who have been jobless for several years but ineffective for participants who were recently employed.     

Cash Transfers and Children's Education and Labour among Malawi's Poor

This article examines the impact on children's education and labour of monthly cash grants targeted on ultra‐poor households and designed to reduce poverty and enable families to invest in human development. It conducts a randomised community trial, with baseline and endline surveys of intervention and control households; verifies school enrolment; and completes key‐informant interviews and focus‐group discussions. Compared with non‐beneficiaries, intervention children experienced a 5 percentage point difference in enrolment, higher educational expenditures, fewer absences, and a 10 percentage point decrease in labour outside the home. Qualitative data confirm the quantitative findings. Transfers to poor households had a positive impact. However, the Malawian educational system needs to be improved for short‐term impacts to lead to long‐term development in human capital.     

《雷雨》人物对话研究

戏剧《雷雨》中有大量的人物对话,在刻画人物性格,表现人物内心世界,推进戏剧冲突方面起到了关键作用。文章主要以周萍为主线,考察他同繁漪、鲁侍萍的对话,对戏中人物对话进行审美分析。     

宗教、邪教与文化的挤占效应分析

从历史经验看,中国古代传统主流文化存在"信仰缺乏症",带有宗教特征的巫文化与主流文化结合,部分地满足了人们的宗教信仰需求,表现出对传统主流文化的占位效应。在当下中国,由于大量具有宗教情结人口的存在,宗教信仰作为一项次好的选择,能够发挥对邪教的文化挤出效应。     

An Additive–Multiplicative Restricted Mean Residual Life Model

The mean residual life measures the expected remaining life of a subject who has survived up to a particular time. When survival time distribution is highly skewed or heavy tailed, the restricted mean residual life must be considered. In this paper, we propose an additive–multiplicative restricted mean residual life model to study the association between the restricted mean residual life function and potential regression covariates in the presence of right censoring. This model extends the proportional mean residual life model using an additive model as its covariate dependent baseline. For the suggested model, some covariate effects are allowed to be time‐varying. To estimate the model parameters, martingale estimating equations are developed, and the large sample properties of the resulting estimators are established. In addition, to assess the adequacy of the model, we investigate a goodness of fit test that is asymptotically justified. The proposed methodology is evaluated via simulation studies and further applied to a kidney cancer data set collected from a clinical trial.     

Sport and disability: Pistorius does not fit with the categories

Oscar Pistorius presents a major issue to sports organisations, as exposed in the media. First and foremost, media wrongly perceive him as the first disabled athlete to participate in the Olympic Games. Second, they openly question the legitimacy of his participation mainly based on the inequity introduced by his prosthetic legs. Content analysis, in English and French, of written press, International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) and Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) texts, from 2004 to 2012, confirms that Pistorius presents a new puzzle to sports organizations. This is partly because they are not able to determine whether his performances are a result of his body strength or if they are biased by his artificial limbs. Furthermore, when he is competing against able-bodied athletes, sports organizsations put him in a ‘monstrous’ position. Similarly, while categorising him as an ‘athlete’ they do not grant him the characteristic feature of this category: certified comparability of performances to ultimately establish ranks.     

Attributing Outcomes to Social Policy Interventions – ‘Gold Standard’ or ‘Fool's Gold’ in Public Policy and Management?

In recent years there has been increased interest in outcome‐based social policy‐making and management. The UK has been in the forefront of this movement but similar movements have been identified internationally. This interest in outcome‐based decision‐making has been given particular impetus through the ‘results’‐based movement in evaluation and performance management since the 1980s, which has increased in scope over time, slowly changing its emphasis from cost reduction and measuring outputs to measuring outcomes. This change has been widely welcomed by policymakers, practitioners and academics. However, there is evidence that the reality is often rather less than the rhetoric. Moreover, the ‘attribution problem’ of attributing changes in outcomes to specific social policies has remained a major issue. The conceptual solution of constructing ‘cause‐and‐effect’ models, imported from the policy evaluation field, has only recently become common for operationalising these models. This article outlines the evolution of interest in outcome‐based social policy‐making up to recent times and the growing realization of the importance of the attribution problem. It then outlines both how the ‘cause‐and‐effect’ policy modelling approach can partially tackle the attribution problem, but also its inherent limitations. Lastly, the article uses several case studies in current UK social policy‐making to demonstrate the potential importance of the reasoning embedded within cause‐and‐effect models but also the dangers in policy‐making which adopts this approach without understanding its conceptual basis or in fields where it is inappropriate, given the current state of our knowledge of social policy systems.     

充分发挥大众传媒思想政治教育功能的对策研究

本文归纳总结了切实发挥大众传媒思想政治教育功能应遵循的基本原则,深入分析当前我国发挥大众传媒思想政治教育功能的现状、存在的主要问题以及导致这些问题的原因,并进而深入挖掘隐藏在这些问题背后的深层次制约因素,提出了如何充分发挥大众传媒思想政治教育功能的对策性意见。