论给付行政裁量的规制完善

讨论法治思维、法治政府评价的问题,就离不开对行政裁量的考察。考察行政裁量的本质论,就不能绕开对要件裁量说和效果裁量说这种两分法的再认识。探讨自由(便宜)裁量和羁束(法规)裁量的区别问题,不仅有助于把握行政裁量司法统制的界限和基准,而且有助于促进法规范的制定和解释之完善。结合给付行政的增大和裁量权的扩展这种世界性发展趋势,在给付行政领域建构符合该领域特点和规律性的行政责任论,裁量规制和裁量机制本身的完善必不可少。在具有较强裁量性的给付行政领域,宜进行功能性、程序法性的合目的性裁量,而运用和"羁束裁量行为"相对应意义以外的"自由裁量行为"观念,则是不适宜的。在给付行政领域,需要根据每个受给者的具体情形展开具有针对性的、各种各样的灵活应对,这种特点决定了该领域的裁量需要更广阔的空间,同时也需要完善相应的程序和准则,确立基层工作人员状况判断的优位等独具特色的权力运用规则,重视和强调规制手段的活用。     

哲学视野中的创新

创新是一个民族的灵魂 ,是一个国家兴旺发达的不竭动力。要树立创新的哲学理念 ,应该从哲学视角对创新的重要环节进行理论概括和阐释。新矛盾凸现是创新的契机 ;主体的利益需求是创新的价值导向 ;扬弃是创新的方法论原则 ;人民群众是创新的主体力量 ;历史实践是创新的实现途径和检验标准。     

“丑女人”现象：美国当代小说的一种倾向

美国当代小说里有不少丑女人形象。这种一反传统的丑女人小说之深刻用意在于:颠覆男权社会的女性美标准和女性美审美传统,昭示新女性不惜一切代价也要摆脱被艺术品化、被玩赏之屈辱地位的意志;表达她们拒绝凭借美貌去吸引男人,进而赢得社会赞许和社会地位的勇气;传达她们坚持依靠开发女性内在潜力而自立于社会,从而获得真正的男女平等的信念。     

Fast and Accurate Inference for the Smoothing Parameter in Semiparametric Models

A fast and accurate method of confidence interval construction for the smoothing parameter in penalised spline and partially linear models is proposed. The method is akin to a parametric percentile bootstrap where Monte Carlo simulation is replaced by saddlepoint approximation, and can therefore be viewed as an approximate bootstrap. It is applicable in a quite general setting, requiring only that the underlying estimator be the root of an estimating equation that is a quadratic form in normal random variables. This is the case under a variety of optimality criteria such as those commonly denoted by maximum likelihood (ML), restricted ML (REML), generalized cross validation (GCV) and Akaike's information criteria (AIC). Simulation studies reveal that under the ML and REML criteria, the method delivers a near‐exact performance with computational speeds that are an order of magnitude faster than existing exact methods, and two orders of magnitude faster than a classical bootstrap. Perhaps most importantly, the proposed method also offers a computationally feasible alternative when no known exact or asymptotic methods exist, e.g. GCV and AIC. An application is illustrated by applying the methodology to well‐known fossil data. Giving a range of plausible smoothed values in this instance can help answer questions about the statistical significance of apparent features in the data.     

An extended semiparametric model for short-term and long-term hazard ratios

In survival analysis, one way to deal with non-proportional hazards is to model short-term and long-term hazard ratios. The existing model of this nature has no control over how fast the hazard ratio is changing over time. We add a parameter to the existing model to allow the hazard ratio to change over time at different speed. A nonparametric maximum likelihood approach is used to estimate the model parameters. The existing model is a special case of the extended model when the speed parameter is 0, which leads naturally to a way of testing the adequacy of the existing model. Simulation results show that there can be substantial bias in the estimation of the short-term and long-term hazard ratio if the speed parameter is fixed incorrectly at 0 rather than estimated. The extended model is fitted to three real data sets to shed new insights, including the observation that converging hazards does not necessarily imply the odds are proportional.     

Slashed generalized exponential distribution

In this paper, we introduce an extension of the generalized exponential (GE) distribution, making it more robust against possible influential observations. The new model is defined as the quotient between a GE random variable and a beta-distributed random variable with one unknown parameter. The resulting distribution is a distribution with greater kurtosis than the GE distribution. Probability properties of the distribution such as moments and asymmetry and kurtosis are studied. Likewise, statistical properties are investigated using the method of moments and the maximum likelihood approach. Two real data analyses are reported illustrating better performance of the new model over the GE model.     

An operative extension of the likelihood ratio test from fuzzy data

In the present paper we are going to extend the likelihood ratio test to the case in which the available experimental information involves fuzzy imprecision (more precisely, the observable events associated with the random experiment concerning the test may be characterized as fuzzy subsets of the sample space, as intended by Zadeh, 1965). In addition, we will approximate the immediate intractable extension, which is based on Zadeh’s probabilistic definition, by using the minimum inaccuracy principle of estimation from fuzzy data, that has been introduced in previous papers as an operative extension of the maximum likelihood method.     

论刑事二审程序中新证据的采信

刑事二审中新证据的采信对于查明案件事实有重大意义,但刑事诉讼法只是原则性的规定了新证据,对其构成要件及采信标准则需要参照相关司法解释及部门法进一步明确。理论上讲,我国对新证据采取的是随时提出主义,反映了对刑事实质正义的绝对追求。具体到新证据的认定标准上,需要考察时间、原因和种类三个要件。在此基础上,结合证据的可采性原理,可以分别对检察院、辩护人及法院提出的新证据进行科学的采信。     

The Statistical Analysis of Preference Data

A new statistic and a new method of analysis are proposed for data where a sample of respondents provides a preference ordering of some treatments. The new preference statistic is compared with the Friedman statistic, particularly for an example where 12 home owners each ranked four grasses. The new analysis provides a more natural and less misleading assessment of where the differences occur than an analysis based on the rank sums of the Friedman statistic. The new analysis is also more robust to deviations from the classical location problem, is not related to election methods known to have undesirable characteristics and adheres to the Condorcet criterion for election methods.