Exact likelihood ratio and score confidence intervals for the binomial proportion

Many methods are available for computing a confidence interval for the binomial parameter, and these methods differ in their operating characteristics. It has been suggested in the literature that the use of the exact likelihood ratio (LR) confidence interval for the binomial proportion should be considered. This paper provides an evaluation of the operating characteristics of the two‐sided exact LR and exact score confidence intervals for the binomial proportion and compares these results to those for three other methods that also strictly maintain nominal coverage: Clopper‐Pearson, Blaker, and Casella. In addition, the operating characteristics of the two‐sided exact LR method and exact score method are compared with those of the corresponding asymptotic methods to investigate the adequacy of the asymptotic approximation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The performance of multivariate CUSUM control charts with estimated parameters

In this paper, we study the effect of estimating the vector of means and the variance–covariance matrix on the performance of two of the most widely used multivariate cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts, the MCUSUM chart proposed by Crosier [Multivariate generalizations of cumulative sum quality-control schemes, Technometrics 30 (1988), pp. 291–303] and the MC1 chart proposed by Pignatiello and Runger [Comparisons of multivariate CUSUM charts, J. Qual. Technol. 22 (1990), pp. 173–186]. Using simulation, we investigate and compare the in-control and out-of-control performances of the competing charts in terms of the average run length measure. The in-control and out-of-control performances of the competing charts deteriorate significantly if the estimated parameters are used with control limits intended for known parameters, especially when only a few Phase I samples are used to estimate the parameters. We recommend the use of the MC1 chart over that of the MCUSUM chart if the parameters are estimated from a small number of Phase I samples.     

Simulating from irregular data: Kernel Carlo Simulation

In this paper, we address the problem of simulating from a data-generating process for which the observed data do not follow a regular probability distribution. One existing method for doing this is bootstrapping, but it is incapable of interpolating between observed data. For univariate or bivariate data, in which a mixture structure can easily be identified, we could instead simulate from a Gaussian mixture model. In general, though, we would have the problem of identifying and estimating the mixture model. Instead of these, we introduce a non-parametric method for simulating datasets like this: Kernel Carlo Simulation. Our algorithm begins by using kernel density estimation to build a target probability distribution. Then, an envelope function that is guaranteed to be higher than the target distribution is created. We then use simple accept–reject sampling. Our approach is more flexible than others, can simulate intelligently across gaps in the data, and requires no subjective modelling decisions. With several univariate and multivariate examples, we show that our method returns simulated datasets that, compared with the observed data, retain the covariance structures and have distributional characteristics that are remarkably similar.     

Semiparametric ROC surface estimation for continuous diagnostic tests via polytomous logistic regression procedures

In this paper, we propose a semiparametric method of estimating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surfaces for continuous diagnostic tests under density ratio models. Implementation of our method is easy since the usual polytomous logistic regression procedures in many statistical software packages can be employed. A simulated example is provided to facilitate the implementation of our method. Simulation results show that the proposed semiparametric ROC surface estimator is more efficient than the nonparametric counterpart and the parametric counterpart whether the normality assumption of data holds or not. Moreover, some simulation results on the underlying semiparametric distribution function estimators are also reported. In addition, some discussions on the proposed method as well as analysis of a real data set are provided.     

Gaining insight with recursive partitioning of generalized linear models

Recursive partitioning algorithms separate a feature space into a set of disjoint rectangles. Then, usually, a constant in every partition is fitted. While this is a simple and intuitive approach, it may still lack interpretability as to how a specific relationship between dependent and independent variables may look. Or it may be that a certain model is assumed or of interest and there is a number of candidate variables that may non-linearly give rise to different model parameter values. We present an approach that combines generalized linear models (GLM) with recursive partitioning that offers enhanced interpretability of classical trees as well as providing an explorative way to assess a candidate variable's influence on a parametric model. This method conducts recursive partitioning of a GLM by (1) fitting the model to the data set, (2) testing for parameter instability over a set of partitioning variables, (3) splitting the data set with respect to the variable associated with the highest instability. The outcome is a tree where each terminal node is associated with a GLM. We will show the method's versatility and suitability to gain additional insight into the relationship of dependent and independent variables by two examples, modelling voting behaviour and a failure model for debt amortization, and compare it to alternative approaches.     

Approximate Bayes estimation of the parameters and reliability function of a mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions under Type-2 censoring

The main goal of this paper is to develop the approximate Bayes estimation of the five-dimensional vector of the parameters and reliability function of a mixture of two inverse Weibull distributions (MTIWD) under Type-2 censoring. Usually, the posterior distribution is complicated under the scheme of Type-2 censoring and the integrals that are involved cannot be obtained in a simple explicit form. In this study, we use Lindley's [Approximate Bayesian method, Trabajos Estadist. 31 (1980), pp. 223–237] approximate form of Bayes estimation in the case of an MTIWD under Type-2 censoring. Later, we calculate the estimated risks (ERs) of the Bayes estimates and compare them with the corresponding ERs of the maximum-likelihood estimates through Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, we analyse a real data set using the findings.     

A consistent method of estimation for the parameters of the three-parameter inverse Gaussian distribution

In this paper, we propose a consistent method of estimation for the parameters of the three-parameter inverse Gaussian distribution. We then discuss some properties of these estimators and show by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study that the proposed estimators perform better than some other prominent estimators in terms of bias and root mean squared error. Finally, we present two real-life examples to illustrate the method of inference developed here.     

Reducing component estimation for varying coefficient models

The estimation problem for varying coefficient models has been studied by many authors. We consider the problem in the case that the unknown functions admit different degrees of smoothness. In this paper we propose a reducing component local polynomial method to estimate the unknown functions. It is shown that all of our estimators achieve the optimal convergence rates. The asymptotic distributions of our estimators are also derived. The established asymptotic results and the simulation results show that our estimators outperform the the existing two-step estimators when the coefficient functions admit different degrees of smoothness. We also develop methods to speed up the estimation of the model and the selection of the bandwidths.