语言多样性、信息获取与分析师盈余预测质量

考察了语言多样性对分析师盈余预测质量的影响,以及这种影响如何因员工教育水平的不同而变化.基于中国上市公司的实证检验结果显示,语言多样性显著降低了分析师盈余预测质量,但是随着公司员工受教育水平提高,语言多样性对分析师盈余预测质量的负面影响有所减弱.进一步研究发现,分析师与CEO间的校友关系增强了员工教育水平对语言多样性与分析师盈余预测准确性之间关系的正向调节作用.研究结论一定程度上丰富了分析师私有信息获取及其影响机理以及社会关系等方面的文献,而且还可帮助投资者、监管者等利益相关方更好地理解分析师行为,促进资源合理配置,增强资本市场的有效性等方面具有一定的启示意义.     

消费者网络购物感知风险概念及测量模型研究

感知风险在消费者行为研究中是一个重要的变量,它对消费者信息处理及购物决策产生重要影响.随着网络购物的兴起,消费者的信息搜寻和购买决策过程都发生了重大的改变.本文对消费者网络购物感知风险进行了界定,提出感知风险可以由五个具体的网络购物感知风险维度构成,并在此基础上开发了15个项目作为测量指标.论文还对消费者网络购物感知风险不同结构的模型进行了探索比较,根据拟合程度和简约特点界定了消费者网络购物感知风险的概念和测量模型.     

Combining forecasts of electricity consumption in China with time-varying weights updated by a high-order Markov chain model

Electricity consumption forecasting has been always playing a vital role in power system management and planning. Inaccurate prediction may cause wastes of scarce energy resource or electricity shortages. However, forecasting electricity consumption has proven to be a challenging task due to various unstable factors. Especially, China is undergoing a period of economic transition, which highlights this difficulty. This paper proposes a time-varying-weight combining method, i.e. High-order Markov chain based Time-varying Weighted Average (HM-TWA) method to predict the monthly electricity consumption in China. HM-TWA first calculates the in-sample time-varying combining weights by quadratic programming for the individual forecasts. Then it predicts the out-of-sample time-varying adaptive weights through extrapolating these in-sample weights using a high-order Markov chain model. Finally, the combined forecasts can be obtained. In addition, to ensure that the sample data have the same properties as the required forecasts, a reasonable multi-step-ahead forecasting scheme is designed for HM-TWA. The out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation shows that HM-TWA outperforms the component models and traditional combining methods, and its effectiveness is further verified by comparing it with some other existing models.     

企业投资风险的度量预测方法和防范策略研究

投资风险是投资活动中实际值达不到期望值的程度。利用期望值、标准差和标准差系数的概念 ,可以度量和预测企业投资项目风险的大小。作者从单个投资项目、二个投资项目和多个投资项目的角度给出了投资风险度量和预测的模型。最后指出企业投资风险的十条防范策略和四条具体措施     

王国维翻译思想概述

王国维的译论可概括为:"忠于"原文、概念"精确"、保持"神韵"、力求"易解",强调译者理解原语的能力、深厚的译入语素养、"历史之见地"。这些翻译原则丰富了中国翻译理论。     

结构一能动性干扰：问卷调查精度的局限性分析

以往对于问卷调查精度的探讨通常局限在“访问员“受访者”或“研究者”的三维关系当中,或专门针对问卷本身进行技术改良,很少注意到与这三者紧密相关的社会环境因素。以人为客体的社会领域研究不同于自然科学,势必会受到社会环境因素的干扰。而在问卷调查过程当中,影响调查精度最深的社会性因素是行政管理结构,这一结构性因素贯穿于问卷调查的始末,在这一结构作用下,行政管理者可以依附结构力量,能动地对问卷调查的结果产生影响,引导问卷结果偏向更加有利的一面,通过对以往研究过程当中所遇到的此类现象进行综合分析,总结出行政管理者所采用的四种能动性影响方式,从而探讨其对问卷调查的影响。最终,将这一影响问卷调查结果的现象称为“结构一能动性干扰”,并认为这一因素可能造成问卷结果在很大程度上会偏离真实,而对这一问题的解决,难以简单从以往三维关系或问卷技术改良上得到改善。     

孔径自动检测机构的设计与分析

模拟人工测量过程,设计了一种适用于气体测微传感器自动测量孔径的柔顺机构.该机构也适用于孔径分选以及小型轴类零件的自动装配等作业过程.     

Modelling the tradeoff between postponement capacity and forecast accuracy

The ability to offer rapid delivery of a wide variety of customised products requires companies to maintain high levels of product inventories to quickly respond to customer demands. One alternative for reducing final product inventories while providing the required customer service level is delayed product differentiation, known as postponement. This strategy, however, can result in significant costs of increasing capacity at the postponement stage. Another alternative is to improve forecast accuracy, resulting in costs associated with more sophisticated forecasting methodologies. In this study we model the costs associated with each alternative and the resulting reductions in inventory levels, while maintaining a constant service level. We illustrate the interaction between these variables using a numerical example motivated by our work with a local manufacturer of non-durable household goods. Our findings show that large cost differences can exist between the two strategies, and that these costs play a significant role in determining the best strategy. Also, the value of the product (through holding cost) sets a limit on the benefit that can be realised by either strategy. These results have important managerial implications that should be considered when making the postponement decision.     

质子交換铌酸鋰光波导r_(33)的相干测試

用质子交换制备LiNbO_3光波导的方法有很多吸引人的优点,但实践中发现所得导波层电光系数r_(33)显著下降。本文报导了一种用于测试导波层电光系数的外电极调制直接相干测试的方法,给出了详细的测试原理和对r_(33)的测试结果。     

原语语篇类型对汉英口译任务复杂度的影响

译者在口译训练及实践中要处理不同语篇类型的语料。而不同语篇类型的口译任务复杂度也有差异，从而影响着译者口译输出的准确度和流利度。