The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sex-specific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naïve model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy.     

基于PAD空间情感体验的情感虚拟人评价

设计了一种具有语言、表情和视线交互功能的情感智能教学虚拟人原型系统。为了获得情感虚拟人系统对用户情感体验影响的定量描述,通过心理物理学实验的方法,利用中文简化版情感量表,对系统进行实验测试,得到了基于愉悦度、激活度和优势度（PAD,pleasure—arousal—dominance）情感空间的情感体验描述。实验结果表明,设计的情感智能教学系统可以提升用户在交互过程中的正向情绪及唤醒度和优势度。     

证券市场的信息生产制度——一个品质考核的理论进路

证券市场区别于其他市场的一个重要标志,是其建立了一个庞大、复杂、细密的信息披露体系。本文运用巴泽尔的品质考核理论,深入考察了证券商品的信息特性,并以此为理论线索,重新审视和解释了证券市场的信息生产制度。证券商品的品质考核问题在两个方面对证券法制度产生了根本性影响。一方面,它导致证券市场涌现出大量投资银行、会计师事务所、证券投资基金、证券评级公司等市场机构,从事大规模的证券信息生产,众多的机构管理法规因而成为证券法体系非常重要的组成部分。另一方面,它迫使证券市场建立起一套严格的信息生产体制,为证券市场持续、大规模的信息生产提供制度保障。     

Between stability and higher-order asymptotics

We discuss the effects of model misspecifications on higher-order asymptotic approximations of the distribution of estimators and test statistics. In particular we show that small deviations from the model can wipe out the nominal improvements of the accuracy obtained at the model by second-order approximations of the distribution of classical statistics. Although there is no guarantee that the first-order robustness properties of robust estimators and tests will carry over to second-order in a neighbourhood of the model, the behaviour of robust procedures in terms of second-order accuracy is generally more stable and reliable than that of their classical counterparts. Finally, we discuss some related work on robust adjustments of the profile likelihood and outline the role of computer algebra in this type of research.     

Overall Successful Aging: Its Factorial Structure and Predictive Factors

As the concept of successful ageing (SA) tends to take different meanings among researchers, there is a lack of consensus on how to measure SA. In order to address this gap, the present study aims to explore the factor structure of SA involving SA indicators presented in the literature. Using Americans' Changing Lives study (ACL), a second-order confirmatory factor analysis on factors constituting an overall SA measure and a SEM regression model to examine the predictive factors of the overall SA measure were estimated. A second-order confirmatory factor model including three latent constructs of SA – Physical Domain (diseases, functional health, and physical activity), Mental Domain (depression, self-efficacy, and cognitive impairment), and Social Domain (formal social integration, informal social integration, and social support) – fits the data properly. The findings of a SEM regression model replicates the findings of previous SA research, suggesting the overall SA latent construct is a valid measure for SA.     

卫星导航接收机测速精度测量方法研究

以GPS为例,研究卫星导航接收机动态测量精度的测量方法。讨论了被动式导航接收机的测速原理,阐述了卫星导航信号模拟源产生信号的基本方法,说明通过调节模拟源中各延迟环节的时延量,即可模拟产生相对于载频的频偏,以此作为接收机动态的理论真值并与实际测量值相比较,可获得包括速度在内的动态测量精度。在理论分析的基础上介绍了基于模拟源的接收机测速精度测量的实现方法。     

Estimation and interpretation of models of absolute risk from epidemiologic data,including family-based studies

Absolute risk is the chance that a person with given risk factors and free of the disease of interest at age a will be diagnosed with that disease in the interval (a, a + τ]. Absolute risk is sometimes called cumulative incidence. Absolute risk is a “crude” risk because it is reduced by the chance that the person will die of competing causes of death before developing the disease of interest. Cohort studies admit flexibility in modeling absolute risk, either by allowing covariates to affect the cause-specific relative hazards or to affect the absolute risk itself. An advantage of cause-specific relative risk models is that various data sources can be used to fit the required components. For example, case–control data can be used to estimate relative risk and attributable risk, and these can be combined with registry data on age-specific composite hazard rates for the disease of interest and with national data on competing hazards of mortality to estimate absolute risk. Family-based designs, such as the kin-cohort design and collections of pedigrees with multiple affected individuals can be used to estimate the genotype-specific hazard of disease. Such analyses must be adjusted for ascertainment, and failure to take into account residual familial risk, such as might be induced by unmeasured genetic variants or by unmeasured behavioral or environmental exposures that are correlated within families, can lead to overestimates of mutation-specific absolute risk in the general population.     

新企业创业导向的测量与功效:基于中国经验的实证研究

当前关于新企业创业导向的维度及其功效还存在较大的分歧。本文从战略过程视角,依据文献分析初步界定了新企业创业导向的5个维度,然后通过访谈调查和探测性检验,将新企业创业导向维度调整为创新性、风险承担性、先动性3个方面,应用并优化了其测量量表。最后通过150份有效样本,对我国新企业创业导向对企业绩效的直接贡献和间接贡献进行了检验。结果表明,创业导向对新企业绩效确实有显著的直接贡献,但间接作用更为明显。     

Impact of Reseller's Forecasting Accuracy on Channel Member Performance

This article studies a three‐layer supply chain where a manufacturer sells a product through a reseller who then relies on its own salesperson to sell to the end market. The reseller has superior capability in demand forecasting relative to the manufacturer. We explore the main trade‐offs between the risk‐reduction effect and the information–asymmetry–aggravation effect of the improved forecasting accuracy. We show that under the optimal wholesale price contract, both the manufacturer and the reseller are always better off as the reseller's forecasting accuracy improves. Nevertheless, under the menu of two‐part tariffs, the manufacturer prefers the reseller to be either uninformed or perfectly informed about the market condition. We further find that the improved forecasting accuracy is beneficial for the reseller if its current forecasting system is either very poor or very good.     

Who Is the Boss and Who Is Not? Accuracy of Judging Status

We investigated whether people were accurate at judging other people's status, what behavioral and appearance cues they relied on when assessing status, whether the way those cues were used was accurate, and whether target gender affected any of the results. Targets (N = 48) were university employees (faculty and staff) who were photographed while interacting with a coworker. One sample of perceivers (66 females, 42 males) rated the relative status of the two people in the photograph to each other, and another sample (60 females and males) rated each target in the photograph on status. Additionally, an array of behavioral and appearance cues of targets in the photograph was assessed. Results showed that (1) people were able to assess status in others, (2) the cues they used to assess female and male targets were somewhat different, and (3) how much people relied on specific cues corresponded to how status was expressed in these cues.