Estimation and simulation of conditional hazard function in the quasi-associated framework when the observations are linked via a functional single-index structure

We consider the estimation of the conditional hazard function of a scalar response variable Y given a Hilbertian random variable X when the observations are linked via a single-index structure in the quasi-associated framework. We establish the pointwise almost complete convergence and the uniform almost complete convergence (with the rate) of the estimate of this model. A simulation is given to illustrate the good behavior in the practice of our methodology.     

Likelihood ratio order of parallel systems under multiple-outlier models

This paper studies the likelihood ratio ordering of parallel systems under multiple-outlier models. We introduce a partial order, the so-called θ-order, and show that the θ-order between the parameter vectors of the parallel systems implies the likelihood ratio order between the systems.     

Fixed T dynamic panel data estimators with multifactor errors

This article analyzes a growing group of fixed T dynamic panel data estimators with a multifactor error structure. We use a unified notational approach to describe these estimators and discuss their properties in terms of deviations from an underlying set of basic assumptions. Furthermore, we consider the extendability of these estimators to practical situations that may frequently arise, such as their ability to accommodate unbalanced panels and common observed factors. Using a large-scale simulation exercise, we consider scenarios that remain largely unexplored in the literature, albeit being of great empirical relevance. In particular, we examine (i) the effect of the presence of weakly exogenous covariates, (ii) the effect of changing the magnitude of the correlation between the factor loadings of the dependent variable and those of the covariates, (iii) the impact of the number of moment conditions on bias and size for GMM estimators, and finally (iv) the effect of sample size. We apply each of these estimators to a crime application using a panel data set of local government authorities in New South Wales, Australia; we find that the results bear substantially different policy implications relative to those potentially derived from standard dynamic panel GMM estimators. Thus, our study may serve as a useful guide to practitioners who wish to allow for multiplicative sources of unobserved heterogeneity in their model.     

Social mobility and demand for redistribution in Europe: a comparative analysis

The literature on preferences for redistribution has paid little attention to the effect of social mobility on the demand for redistribution and no systematic test of the hypotheses connecting social mobility and preferences for redistribution has yet been done to date. We use the diagonal reference model to estimate the effect of origin and destination classes on preferences for redistribution in a large sample of European countries using data from the European Social Survey. Our findings are consistent with the logic of acculturation in the sense that newcomers tend to adapt their views to those of the destination class at early stages and that upward and downward mobility do not have distinctive effects on the formation of political preferences. However, even though social origins seem to have a limited impact on preferences for redistribution, the evidence does not support the hypothesis that mobile and non‐mobile individuals are alike. We also find that the effect of social origin on preferences varies largely across countries. The empirical evidence leads to the conclusion that the effect of social origin on preferences for redistribution increases in contexts of strong familism.     

基于修正UTAUT模型的农信社手机银行使用行为研究——以福建省农户调查数据为例

基于UTAUT模型,引入感知风险、替代软件等2个变量进行修正,构建农信社手机银行使用行为影响因素研究模型,并运用结构方程模型、Bootstrap中介检验、多群组分析等方法对福建省农户调查数据进行实证分析。研究发现:(1)感知易用性显著正向影响农信社手机银行使用意愿;感知风险和替代软件显著负向影响农信社手机银行使用意愿;社会影响对农信社手机银行使用意愿影响不显著。(2)便利条件和使用意愿显著正向影响农信社手机银行使用行为;农信社手机银行使用行为影响因素由大到小依次为便利条件、替代软件、感知风险、感知易用性。(3)教育在感知易用性对农信社手机银行使用意愿影响中具有调节作用。据此提出,应进一步增强操作的便利性以优化业务办理效率,增强信息的安全性以降低软件使用风险,增强软件的特色性以降低软件可替代性,增强软件的易用性以优化便捷使用体验,从而优化农村金融服务供给,助推农村经济发展。     

基于神经网络的测井评价油层污染研究

利用测井资料,在剖析传统的测井评价油(气)层污染方法的基础上,介绍了利用BP神经网络这一现代数理统计新技术来实现测井多参数评定油气层污染程度的方法和技巧;以华北二连油田实际资料为例,建立了测井判释油气层污染的数学物理模型,并进行了模拟预测。结果表明:该法简便可行,对污染评价参数预测精度较高,对污染程度评价合理准确,可作为油(气)层污     

机器学习视角下中国去产能产业的识别

随着中国环境压力的增加,政府提出了供给侧改革,去产能是改革的主要内容,但是由于产业特征的实时演变,需要对政策进行完善。文章运用模糊C均值算法和支持向量机算法分析现阶段需要进行去产能的产业,结果发现在现行去产能政策中大部分行业是需要去产能的,但煤炭开采和洗选业以及铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业已不适合继续去产能,同时将化学原料和化学制品制造业加入去产能行列中。     

Self-exciting threshold models for time series of counts with a finite range

In this article, an integer-valued self-exciting threshold model with a finite range based on the binomial INARCH(1) model is proposed. Important stochastic properties are derived, and approaches for parameter estimation are discussed. A real-data example about the regional spread of public drunkenness in Pittsburgh demonstrates the applicability of the new model in comparison to existing models. Feasible modifications of the model are presented, which are designed to handle special features such as zero-inflation.     

Conditional Akaike Information Criteria for a Class of Poisson Mixture Models with Random Effects

Focusing on the model selection problems in the family of Poisson mixture models (including the Poisson mixture regression model with random effects and zero‐inflated Poisson regression model with random effects), the current paper derives two conditional Akaike information criteria. The criteria are the unbiased estimators of the conditional Akaike information based on the conditional log‐likelihood and the conditional Akaike information based on the joint log‐likelihood, respectively. The derivation is free from the specific parametric assumptions about the conditional mean of the true data‐generating model and applies to different types of estimation methods. Additionally, the derivation is not based on the asymptotic argument. Simulations show that the proposed criteria have promising estimation accuracy. In addition, it is found that the criterion based on the conditional log‐likelihood demonstrates good model selection performance under different scenarios. Two sets of real data are used to illustrate the proposed method.     

阜新创建资源枯竭转型示范市生态建设的哲学思考

针对阜新市创建资源枯竭转型示范市过程中不能忽视生态建设这一现实问题,采用理论分析与现实结合的方法,论述了阜新市创建示范市生态建设的哲学依据、现实基础和建设措施,表明生态建设要以生态伦理学为哲学依托对阜新创建示范市有现实意义。