资源枯竭地区经济转型评价体系研究

 基于实现资源枯竭地区经济转型的根本路径在于促进其经济发展方式从资源依赖型向创新驱动型转变的认识,本文构建了一套以反映发展目标、模式、资源、资本、技术、制度、以及市场机制创新为核心内容的资源枯竭地区经济转型评价指标体系,确定了相应的评价标准,并通过典型地区经济转型进程的实证分析,揭示了资源枯竭地区经济转型的突出制约因素和主要着力点。     

2005年国际收支平衡表经常项目简析

国际收支平衡表不但是对一国对外经济交往的系统记录,也是决定政府进行宏观调控的重要依据之一。而对其主要项目中的经常项目进行分析则更具重要意义。文章对2005年国际收支平衡表中的经常项目进行了细致的分析,从中发现了新的变化,并提出了应该重视的新问题。     

Dependence Estimation Over a Finite Bivariate Failure Time Region

This articleconcerns nonparametric estimation of association between bivariatefailure times. In the presence of independent right censoring,the support for failure time variates may be restricted and measuresof dependence over a finite failure time region may be of particularinterest. To this end, the reciprocal cross ratio function, weightedby the bivariate failure time density, is proposed as a summarymeasure of dependence over a failure time region. This `relativerisk' estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptoticallynormally distributed, with consistent bootstrap variance estimator.A finite-region version of Kendall's tau, which is suitable forcensored failure time data, is also proposed, and correspondingasymptotic distribution theory is noted. The accuracy of theseasymptotic approximations is studied in simulations and an illustrationis provided.     

Detecting homogeneous segments in DNA sequences by using hidden Markov models

In recent years there has been a rapid growth in the amount of DNA being sequenced and in its availability through genetic databases. Statistical techniques which identify structure within these sequences can be of considerable assistance to molecular biologists particularly when they incorporate the discrete nature of changes caused by evolutionary processes. This paper focuses on the detection of homogeneous segments within heterogeneous DNA sequences. In particular, we study an intron from the chimpanzee α-fetoprotein gene; this protein plays an important role in the embryonic development of mammals. We present a Bayesian solution to this segmentation problem using a hidden Markov model implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We consider the important practical problem of specifying informative prior knowledge about sequences of this type. Two Gibbs sampling algorithms are contrasted and the sensitivity of the analysis to the prior specification is investigated. Model selection and possible ways to overcome the label switching problem are also addressed. Our analysis of intron 7 identifies three distinct homogeneous segment types, two of which occur in more than one region, and one of which is reversible.     

The Semiparametric Normal Variance-Mean Mixture Model

We study the normal variance-mean mixture model from a semiparametric point of view, i.e. we let the mixing distribution belong to a non-parametric family. The main results are consistency of the non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator and construction of an asymptotically normal and efficient estimator for the Euclidian part of the parameter. We study the model according to the theory outlined in the monograph by Bickel et al. (1993) and apply a general result (based on the theory of empirical processes) for semiparametric models from van der Vaart (1996) to prove asymptotic normality and efficiency of the proposed estimator.     

A class of weighted dependence measures for bivariate failure time data

This paper considers a class of summary measures of the dependence between a pair of failure time variables over a finite follow-up region. The class consists of measures that are weighted averages of local dependence measures, and includes the cross-ratio-measure and finite region version of Kendall's τ; recently proposed by the authors. Two new special cases are identified that can avoid the need to estimate the bivariate survivor function and that admit explicit variance estimators. Nonparametric estimators of such dependence measures are proposed and are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with variances that can be consistently estimated. Properties of selected estimators are evaluated in a simulation study, and the method is illustrated through an analysis of Australian Twin Study data.     

试论时间价值观

时间是一种重要的资源。时间价值观是个体以自身的需要为尺度对时间重要性的稳定态度和观念。时间价值观含有时间资源观、时间效率观、时机观、时间顺序观等方面的意义。时间价值观的结构可以有不同的划分。时间价值观受社会文化传统、个体的年龄因素、个体性格、社会环境等因素的影响。心理学对时间价值观的研究在理论上和应用中都有着重要的意义     

对高校学生公共体育兴趣的心理初探

本文从心理学的角度出发,对高校学生体育兴趣的产生、特点及变化原因作了初步探究,并提出了情感教学对体育兴趣形成的重要作用。     

多方发挥物理实验教学的职能作用

当前我国医学教育中物理实验教学存在弱点:对物理教育不重视,实验条件差,仪器、设备陈旧,实验选项过时,实验课时少.针对存在的问题及现状,在现有的条件之内,我们提出了物理实验课的改进措施:认真做好实验准备,发挥教师的主导作用,督查学生亲自动手,利用现有仪器设备,不断改善实验条件,重视教学情况的反馈信息.     

注重素质培养,实现教育实习的目的

面对实习学校设备参差不齐,指导教师素质有高有低,实习学生来源、民族、性别比例不均的状况,我校教育实习相应地采取了城乡结合式、基地式等多种形式.在实习中,通过准备、实习、总结三个阶段,加强学生教风、教态、仪表、行为、着装、语言和板书的专门素质教育,以期达到教育实习的目的.