Stochastic Modelling of Times to Temperature for Furnaces Supplying Titanium Blooms to a Rolling Mill at TIMET

In conjunction with TIMET at Waunarlwydd (Swansea, UK) a model has been developed that will optimise the scheduling of various blooms to their eight furnaces so as to minimise the time taken to roll these blooms into the finished mill products. This production scheduling model requires reliable data on times taken for the various furnaces that heat the slabs and blooms to reach the temperatures required for rolling. These times to temperature are stochastic in nature and this paper identifies the distributional form for these times using the generalised F distribution as a modelling framework. The times to temperature were found to be similarly distributed over all furnaces. The identified distributional forms were incorporated into the scheduling model to optimise a particular campaign that was run at TIMET Swansea. Amongst other conclusion it was found that, compared to the actual campaign, the model produced a schedule that reduced the makespan by some 35%.     

台湾现代农业资讯及其对福建现代农业的启示

概述近年台湾现代农业的发展状况,包括以现代科技发展精致农业,以知识经济发展附加值产业,以宏观视野保护生态资源,以农业资讯与农民辅导促进农业发展的工作进展与成效,以期为了解台湾现代农业发展概况和促进两岸农业科教交流提供最新资讯。提出其对福建发展现代农业的启示。     

Loss functions for estimation of extrema with an application to disease mapping

It is often of interest to find the maximum or near maxima among a set of vector‐valued parameters in a statistical model; in the case of disease mapping, for example, these correspond to relative‐risk “hotspots” where public‐health intervention may be needed. The general problem is one of estimating nonlinear functions of the ensemble of relative risks, but biased estimates result if posterior means are simply substituted into these nonlinear functions. The authors obtain better estimates of extrema from a new, weighted ranks squared error loss function. The derivation of these Bayes estimators assumes a hidden‐Markov random‐field model for relative risks, and their behaviour is illustrated with real and simulated data.     

鲁迅与近代翻译

鲁迅在继承和借鉴中国近代翻译成就的基础上,取得了骄人的翻译成就。他致力于翻译外国优秀的作品以期能引进文明,改造社会,并形成了自己独特的翻译思想、翻译原则和翻译风格。     

深化多媒体教学推进远程教育的发展

本文通过对国内外现代远程教育的探讨,对多媒体教学的分析,提出了我国高等教育要赶超世界先进水平、发展远程教育目前所面临的主要问题及对策.     

论绿色消费方式的形成

绿色消费是可持续发展的消费方式,它的形成对人类可持续发展具有重要意义。论文主张从建立可持续发展的消费价值观,建立合理的财富分配秩序,调整经济结构和生产方式,并依靠科技进步和发挥政府的主导作用来促进绿色消费的形成。     

关于现代学校制度构建的探讨

学校的本质和特性是建立现代学校制度的基础，现代学校制度的构建应该是对学校本质和特性的关照。现代学校制度的建立有着政治与法律、经济和信息的背景，而政府职能与学校运行机制的转换是现代学校制度的保障。     

哲学进步与时代发展

从哲学进步与时代发展的关系上 ,论述马克思主义哲学仍然是当代哲学发展的主流 ;马克思主义哲学的时代基础没有变 ,是当代不可逾越的哲学。对待现代西方哲学要采取扬弃、对话和借鉴的态度 ,从而促进哲学的进步与发展     

现代科学之批判

批判现代科学有两种路径,即形而上学的批判和社会学的批判。所谓现代科技对人类的统治,其根源在于社会统治本身;要消除现代科技对人类的威胁,归根结底要靠合理的、非统治的社会的建构。     

On Rates of Convergence for Bayesian Density Estimation

Abstract.  We consider the problem of estimating a compactly supported density taking a Bayesian nonparametric approach. We define a Dirichlet mixture prior that, while selecting piecewise constant densities, has full support on the Hellinger metric space of all commonly dominated probability measures on a known bounded interval. We derive pointwise rates of convergence for the posterior expected density by studying the speed at which the posterior mass accumulates on shrinking Hellinger neighbourhoods of the sampling density. If the data are sampled from a strictly positive, α -Hölderian density, with α  ∈ ( 0,1] , then the optimal convergence rate n^{− α / (2 α +1)} is obtained up to a logarithmic factor. Smoothing histograms by polygons, a continuous piecewise linear estimator is obtained that for twice continuously differentiable, strictly positive densities satisfying boundary conditions attains a rate comparable up to a logarithmic factor to the convergence rate n ^−4/5 for integrated mean squared error of kernel type density estimators.