开放条件下内外资零售业市场绩效评价与比较——基于DEA产出模型的实证分析

考察外资进入后对中国零售业市场绩效的影响,是评价中国零售业市场绩效水平的重要视角之一。基于产出的BCC与CCR模型,运用DEA方法测算了1999-2008年期间中国内、外资零售业的市场绩效水平,结果表明：中国内、外资零售业市场绩效水平均在曲折中不断提升．外资进人对中国零售业原有的技术管理水平影响不大,但其规模优势带动了中国零售业整体规模效率的提高;长期来看,外资零售业绩效水平要优于内资,且适应能力强,调整速度快。据此,提出了提高中国零售产业市场绩效的两个主要路径。     

农村劳动力转移与农业产出：一个静态均衡分析模型

在二元分析框架下构建静态均衡分析模型,推导出在利润最大化条件下,当农业部门所能提供的剩余劳动力以及非农部门可以吸收的农业剩余劳动力达到供求相等时,劳动力转移与农业产出的数理关系,由此得出农业产出与农村劳动力转移呈反向变动的结论。并以江西的具体数据进行了实证分析,验证了上述结论。     

Large and moderate deviations for modified Engel series

The modified Engel series of real numbers introduced by Rényi (1962 Rényi, A. (1962). A new approach to the theory of Engel’s series. Ann. Univ. Sci. Budapest. Eötvös Sect. Math. 5:25–32. [Google Scholar]) is a simple modification of Engel series, and they have the same classical limit theorems, such as the law of large numbers, central limit theorem, and law of the iterated logarithm. In this paper, we studied the large and moderate deviations for modified Engel series, which indicate that the large deviations for modified Engel series and Engel series are different.     

Public investment in care services in Turkey: Promoting employment & gender inclusive growth

Recent policy debates on macroeconomic tools to counteract the prolonged global economic recession point to the potential of fiscal policies with appropriate sectoral targets for simultaneously boosting effective demand while alleviating inequalities through employment generation. This paper contributes to the debate by pointing to the social care services sector –in particular early childhood education and care (ECEC) — as an effective target of fiscal spending for robust employment generation and gender inclusive growth. We use a macro-micro simulation model to examine the aggregate and gender employment impact of increasing public expenditures on ECEC services, an underdeveloped sector in Turkey versus physical infrastructure and construction, a common target of stimulatory spending. Our methodological approach combines input-output analysis on aggregate employment effects with a statistical microsimulation approach to assess distributional outcomes. We find that an expansion of ECEC services creates not only significantly more jobs but also does so in a more gender-equitable and fiscally sustainable way than the a construction boom.     

Parametric and nonparametric methods for confidence intervals and sample size planning for win probability in parallel-group randomized trials with Likert item and Likert scale data

Data on the Likert scale are ubiquitous in medical research, including randomized trials. Statistical analysis of such data may be conducted using the means of raw scores or the rank information of the scores. In the context of parallel-group randomized trials, we quantify treatment effects by the probability that a subject in the treatment group has a better score than (or a win over) a subject in the control group. Asymptotic parametric and nonparametric confidence intervals for this win probability and associated sample size formulas are derived for studies with only follow-up scores, and those with both baseline and follow-up measurements. We assessed the performance of both the parametric and nonparametric approaches using simulation studies based on real studies with Likert item and Likert scale data. The simulation results demonstrate that even without baseline adjustment, the parametric methods did not perform well, in terms of bias, interval coverage percentage, balance of tail error, and assurance of achieving a pre-specified precision. In contrast, the nonparametric approach performed very well for both the unadjusted and adjusted win probability. We illustrate the methods with two examples: one using Likert item data and the other using Like scale data. We conclude that non-parametric methods are preferable for two-group randomization trials with Likert data. Illustrative SAS code for the nonparametric approach using existing procedures is provided.     

海南省产业发展及结构协调效益实证分析

经济体产业结构的发展具有一定的规律性,产业结构在优化的过程中,伴随着协调效益的提高。海南省三次产业发展总体趋势与产业优化过程基本一致,但力度不够;结构调整的产出增加效益较好,但存在质量问题;产业结构调整的节约效益具有良好发展趋势,但存在劳动力资源浪费现象。第二产业的发展是薄弱环节,应采取有效措施促进产业结构良性发展。     

货币与产出的关系:理论模型与计量研究的现代进展

在对相关文献进行回顾整理的基础上,文章对现代货币经济学的一个中心问题———货币与产出的关系进行了述评,对各种观点进行了比较并给出了各种理论的适用范围。     

高新技术园区投入产出绩效的智能评价

投入产出绩效评价是关系着中国各高新技术园区可持续发展的关键问题。由于评价问题的高维复杂性,神经网络方法与其他方法相比具有一定的优越性,但存在着训练准则和分类准则不一致的问题。采用一种区域映射神经网络模型,实现了从区域到区域的映射比区域到点的映射更快、更好,保证了神经网络训练准则与实际分类准则的一致性,具有比前馈式神经网络更快的收敛速度和更高的分类精度。利用区域映射神经网络模型对中国高新技术园区投入产出绩效进行智能评价,取得了较好的效果。     

LEVERAGE ADJUSTMENTS FOR DISPERSION MODELLING IN GENERALIZED NONLINEAR MODELS

For normal linear models, it is generally accepted that residual maximum likelihood estimation is appropriate when covariance components require estimation. This paper considers generalized linear models in which both the mean and the dispersion are allowed to depend on unknown parameters and on covariates. For these models there is no closed form equivalent to residual maximum likelihood except in very special cases. Using a modified profile likelihood for the dispersion parameters, an adjusted score vector and adjusted information matrix are found under an asymptotic development that holds as the leverages in the mean model become small. Subsequently, the expectation of the fitted deviances is obtained directly to show that the adjusted score vector is unbiased at least to O(1/n) . Exact results are obtained in the single‐sample case. The results reduce to residual maximum likelihood estimation in the normal linear case.     

社会养老保险资金筹集模式研究

养老保险是现阶段我国社会保障体系中的一项核心内容。养老保险需要以充足的资金作为其运行的基础性条件。文章由养老基金入手,考察了国外现收现付制、完全基金积累制和部分基金积累制三种社会养老保险资金筹集模式的优势和缺陷,阐述了我国现阶段"统账结合"型养老保险资金筹集模式的选择和特点,分析了该模式运行中存在的问题,提出了完善的对策。