Estimation under modified Weibull distribution based on right censored generalized order statistics

In this paper, the maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayes, by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), methods are considered to estimate the parameters of three-parameter modified Weibull distribution (MWD(β, τ, λ)) based on a right censored sample of generalized order statistics (gos). Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methods. Some comparisons are carried out between the ML and Bayes methods by computing the mean squared errors (MSEs), Akaike's information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) of the estimates to illustrate the paper. Three real data sets from Weibull(α, β) distribution are introduced and analyzed using the MWD(β, τ, λ) and also using the Weibull(α, β) distribution. A comparison is carried out between the mentioned models based on the corresponding Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S) test statistic, {AIC and BIC} to emphasize that the MWD(β, τ, λ) fits the data better than the other distribution. All parameters are estimated based on type-II censored sample, censored upper record values and progressively type-II censored sample which are generated from the real data sets.     

政策转移的若干理论问题探究

政策转移是全球化时代各国公共政策制定领域的普遍现象。西方政治学界对政策转移的研究始于20世纪90年代，在政策转移的衡量标准、分析框架等方面英国学者进行了探讨。但总体来看，政策转移的研究仍存在诸多盲点。我国国内对政策转移的研究目前刚刚起步，许多问题都处于模糊状态，特别是政策转移的基本理论问题亟待探讨，诸如政策转移的内涵与衡量标准，政策转移的发生前提与条件，政策转移的要素、类型与途径，政策转移的性质与特点，政策转移的功能与作用等都需要深入研究。     

中国省际资本使用效率测算:1981～2005

采用永续盘存法和最新的数据测算中国31个省份1980年~2005年的建筑和设备资本存量,而后结合各省的GDP数据测得中国各省份1981年~2005年的资本边际产出比。从计算结果看,东部省份资本积累已经相对饱和且在2001年前后开始出现资本边际产出递减的情况;中部省份资本存量水平适中;西部省份资本积累还不足,应继续加大资本投入。     

Modeling Imbalanced Economic Recovery Following a Natural Disaster Using Input‐Output Analysis

Input‐output analysis is frequently used in studies of large‐scale weather‐related (e.g., Hurricanes and flooding) disruption of a regional economy. The economy after a sudden catastrophe shows a multitude of imbalances with respect to demand and production and may take months or years to recover. However, there is no consensus about how the economy recovers. This article presents a theoretical route map for imbalanced economic recovery called dynamic inequalities. Subsequently, it is applied to a hypothetical postdisaster economic scenario of flooding in London around the year 2020 to assess the influence of future shocks to a regional economy and suggest adaptation measures. Economic projections are produced by a macro econometric model and used as baseline conditions. The results suggest that London's economy would recover over approximately 70 months by applying a proportional rationing scheme under the assumption of initial 50% labor loss (with full recovery in six months), 40% initial loss to service sectors, and 10–30% initial loss to other sectors. The results also suggest that imbalance will be the norm during the postdisaster period of economic recovery even though balance may occur temporarily. Model sensitivity analysis suggests that a proportional rationing scheme may be an effective strategy to apply during postdisaster economic reconstruction, and that policies in transportation recovery and in health care are essential for effective postdisaster economic recovery.     

图书馆效益取向研究

社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善，使图书馆原有的效益观经受着前所未有的挑战。本文通过对图书馆工作评价标准的回顾，探讨了效益标准确立的意义，分析了图书馆投入产出的特征，指出整体效益即“社会经济效益”是市场经济条件下图书馆效益的价值取向     

毫米波高增益大功率收发组件研制

提出了一种可用于雷达的毫米波收发组件的实现方案。组件包括两个几乎完全相同的接收通道和一个发射通道,接收通道采用两次混频将毫米波信号变为50MHz中频,而发射通道则采用两次上变频将50MHz信号变为毫米波频段的信号发射出去。该文分析了收发组件的设计原理,讨论了组件方案选择,并给出了测试结果。收发组件的各项技术指标基本达到设计要求:在10MHz的工作带宽内,连续波发射功率达1W,接收机噪声系数小于4.5dB,接收通道的净增益超过100dB。     

河南省经济增长贡献因素的实证研究:1978-2005

测算河南不同时期生产要素的产出弹性的结果表明:四个时期河南资本投入保持了非常高的产出弹性,而劳动和科技投入的产出弹性出现较大波动,河南省的就业结构以及科技创新的实力都有待改进和提高。     

中国信息产业发展的投入产出分析——以福建省为例

信息技术及其产业的发展已经成为世界经济新的增长点和国际竞争新的制高点，其作用越来越重要。依据最新权威分类，通过编制福建省信息产业投入产出表，计算出信息产业与其它产业之间的经济依存系数、产业关联系数和波及效果系数，可以看出福建省信息产业的发展取得了一定的成绩，但在国民经济中的地位仍不高，提出需进一步以信息化带动工业化，以工业化促进信息化，努力提升信息产业的地位，正确引导信息产业的集群化发展。     

融英语写作于精读课教学探析

写作是大学英语学习中必不可少的一部分，同时也是大学生英语学习中较为薄弱的一个环节，忽视写作训练是导致学生英语写作能力较差的原因之一。本文针目前英语教学现状及学生在写作中常出现的问题，探讨如何结合精渎课教学，抓好基本功，掌握写作技巧，通过形式多样的写作训练，提高学生的写作水平。     

糖酵解反应模型双曲型反应-扩散方程的稳定性和化学振荡

研究了糖酵解反应模型（修正Ｓｅｌｋｏｖ模型）双曲型反应－扩散方程的稳定性和化学振荡．与抛物型方程的结果比较表明，抛物型系统是双曲型系统当反应－扩散数增至无穷大时的特殊情况；双曲型系统不存在波速可能趋于无穷大的问题；二者的稳定性区域存在很大区别；双曲型系统更适合于用来研究糖酵解反应中的化学振荡．