An empirical likelihood goodness-of-fit test for time series

Summary. Standard goodness-of-fit tests for a parametric regression model against a series of nonparametric alternatives are based on residuals arising from a fitted model. When a parametric regression model is compared with a nonparametric model, goodness-of-fit testing can be naturally approached by evaluating the likelihood of the parametric model within a nonparametric framework. We employ the empirical likelihood for an α -mixing process to formulate a test statistic that measures the goodness of fit of a parametric regression model. The technique is based on a comparison with kernel smoothing estimators. The empirical likelihood formulation of the test has two attractive features. One is its automatic consideration of the variation that is associated with the nonparametric fit due to empirical likelihood's ability to Studentize internally. The other is that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is free of unknown parameters, avoiding plug-in estimation. We apply the test to a discretized diffusion model which has recently been considered in financial market analysis.     

Progress and cumulation in the human sciences after the fall

What do we mean by progress and cumulation in the social and human sciences? Recent thinking in the philosophy and history of science has led to an abandonment of some versions of logical positivism and of verificationism that had a strong deductive and theory testing orientation. What is to replace them is less clear. This paper argues that progress and cumulation can be seen as a process of evaluation and retention within an epistemic community. Scholarly disciplines differ in their social structure and in their epistemic and normative commitments. Since sociology is a fragmented discipline, progress and cumulation differ within its multiple subdisciplines, which to varying extents represent epistemic communities. Brief sketches of progress (advance) and cumulation in several subdisciplines are offered.     

First Nations and community economic development: a case study

A training project in a northern Canadian community providedan opportunity to examine participatory planning approachesand the meaning of work in First Nations communities. Focusgroups conducted three years after the unsuccessful interventionof a community economic development (CED) project suggest thatcomplex factors such as lack of support from community leadersand rate of pay for workers determine whether CED is alwaysappropriate in northern, First Nations contexts.     

The Division of Household Labor in Germany and Israel

We compare the patterns of household division of labor in Germany and Israel—two countries that share key elements of the corporatist welfare regime but differ in their gender regimes—and evaluate several hypotheses using data from the 2002 International Social Survey Program. Although time constraints and relative resources affect the division of household labor and women’s housework in both societies, we find that in Germany the gender order of household labor is more rigid, whereas in Israel the spouses’ linked labor market status exerts distinctive effects. We also find significant relationships between gender ideology and the division of household labor. We discuss the theoretical advantages of approaching the comparative study of gender inequality from the vantage point of family and gender regimes.     

关于行政机关法律责任的思考

重视国家行政机关法律责任问题的研究,对加强我国的行政法制建设具有重要意义。本文阐述了国家行政机关作为表现国家意志的机关,具有特殊法律地位;国家行政机关法律责任是国家责任的重要内容,其责任内容和责任形式取决于国家的性质、目的和任务;而国家行政机关法律责任制度是否健全,亦成为国家责任制度是否完善的重要标志。当前,我国传统的封建文化意识和现行政治体制中的缺陷是阻碍我国行政机关法律责任制度健全和发展的重要因素。社会应当关注这个问题,以促进我国社会主义民主法制的完善。     

唐代狩猎诗论

唐代狩猎诗数量虽不多,但作者涉及面广,无疑是辉煌灿烂的唐诗中一道独特亮丽的风景线。唐代狩猎诗创作的繁荣,与唐代朝野普遍尚猎的风尚及文人入幕、从军边塞活动密切相关。唐人狩猎诗内容丰富,形式多样,特点鲜明,于中还透露出崇猎尚武、积极进取的时代精神。     

教育失序问题的文化救治（上）

教育发展、人的自由而全面的发展与教育秩序的矛盾．是人们在现代社会生活中所必然遇到的一个基本问题。这在教育的现代转型中表现得尤为明显。虽然解答这一问题的根本思路是加强教育制度建设，但由于文化有其特殊的公共性，因而也是解答现代社会教育发展、人的自由而全面发展与教育秩序问题的一条重要理路。在现代教育制度的架构下，通过帮助人们获得公共价值观、起码共识和基本共同感，文化构成现代社会教育发展、人的自由而全面发展不可或缺的重要机制。     

论企业的联合产权制度性质

企业是一个以资源、能力与知识为基础的由要素所有者联合与劳动所有者联合相结合以创造、控制、分配 合作剩余的专业化生产性组织。联合产权制度是现代企业制度的普遍形式,也是现代企业制度的根本性质。     

我国农村人口出生性别比偏高的动力机制研究

B超的滥用、强烈的男孩偏好以及对非法流产行为监控的失效共同构成我国出生性别比偏高的充要条件,三者中任一条件不满足都不可能出现出生性别比偏高。尽管B超发明和滥用前出生性别比并没有异常,但也不能说出生性别比偏高与受教育水平、传统文化等因素无关。事实上,这些因素通过影响男孩偏好和B超的可获得性而影响出生性别比。由此出发,促进出生性别比回复正常,短期内应标本兼治,以治标为主———坚决禁止B超的滥用,关键是加强立法和管理;长期内则必须治本———消除男孩偏好,关键是加速农村城市化。     

重庆民族地区旅游业的定位与发展取向

重庆民族地区具有完好的生态环境,丰富的自然旅游资源,深邃的古文化遗存,绚丽多姿的民族风情等旅游资源优势。21世纪,重庆民族地区旅游业的发展要突出旅游的文化内涵和知识性,坚持可持续发展思想,注意利用现代高新技术,重视旅游人才的培养,以民族文化为依托,开发多种形式的民族文化旅游项目。