基于民生视角的我国资源性产品价格调整

自然资源是目前影响我国经济增长的瓶颈.一方面,长期以来我国的粗放型经济,以资源的大量消耗支撑经济的增长,造成极大浪费,理顺资源性产品价格是经济转型升级的必经之路.另一方面,水、电、气等资源性产品作为居民生活的必需品,其价格的波动直接对居民生活造成影响.我国资源性产品价格调整不应片面要求市场化改革进程的推进,而应兼顾改革与监管.在深化资源性产品市场化改革、完善价格形成机制、健全监管体系的同时,我国应建立相应的保障制度与补偿机制,形成一个有利于经济社会科学发展的机制.     

Using natural language processing technology for qualitative data analysis

Social researchers often apply qualitative research methods to study groups and their communications artifacts. The use of computer-mediated communications has dramatically increased the volume of text available, but coding such text requires considerable manual effort. We discuss how systems that process text in human languages (i.e. natural language processing [NLP]) might partially automate content analysis by extracting theoretical evidence. We present a case study of the use of NLP for qualitative analysis in which the NLP rules showed good performance on a number of codes. With the current level of performance, use of an NLP system could reduce the amount of text to be examined by a human coder by an order of magnitude or more, potentially increasing the speed of coding by a comparable degree. The paper is significant as it is one of the first to demonstrate the use of high-level NLP techniques for qualitative data analysis.     

Role of National Divorce Rates in Moderating the Association Between Marriage Duration and Body Mass Index

The aim of this study was to investigate the moderating effects of the national divorce rate on the association between body weight and marriage duration. Previous studies argued that a high divorce rate at country level reduces the body weight of married people because of an increased risk of a return to the marriage market. To examine the association in question, this study used retrospective data from 14,083 middle-aged individuals in Europe. For women the divorce rate, the percentage change, and the trend of change did not moderate the positive association between body mass index and marriage duration. In contrast, for men a high divorce rate and a steady decline over time positively moderated the relation between body mass index and marriage duration.     

论社会性别视阈下的意识形态批判

意识形态批判的任务是同一性思维的解除。意识形态批判与社会性别视阈之间极具内在的关联性。社会性别视阈下的意识形态批判,揭示了社会、经济、政治、文化等方面的性别不公正,揭示了意识形态对人的控制,拓展了意识形态批判领域,创新了意识形态批判主题。在社会性别视阈的＂文化转向＂中,意识形态批判借鉴了多种思想观念、理论成果,使批判得以推进。但要看到的是,与其他意识形态批判一样,性别视阈下的意识形态批判也存在内在悖论或逻辑循环。意识形态批判自身是不能摆脱意识形态的,这应成为社会性别视阈下意识形态批判者的自觉。     

中国汇率收益率及波动的周内效应实证研究

利用修正的GARCH-M模型,检验了中国2005 - 2010年期间人民币-美元汇率和人民币-欧元汇率收益率及波动的周内效应.研究发现,人民币-美元汇率在周二和周四具有显著升值特征,而人民币-欧元汇率在周四则更容易贬值并同时存在波动性的周二效应,仅在人民币-美元汇率收益率与波动之间呈现显著风险与收益的负向关系,反映出风险越高则人民币-美元汇率越容易升值,这可能是由于汇率市场中投资者的自适应预期所导致.     

基于DSGE模型的利率传导机制研究

动态随机一般均衡模型对中国的经济数据拟合较好,可用来分析中国的经济问题;利率作为中国货币政策的中介目标是适宜的,泰勒规则可以用来指导中国的货币政策实践;利率冲击通过影响资本投资价值进而投资而对产出产生影响,消费的传导作用相对较小。     

对外贸易差额与货币供给 ——基于国别面板数据的实证研究

开放经济条件下,不同汇率制度条件下会对一国贸易差额与货币供给之间的关系产生不同的影响。通过构面包含汇率制度虚拟变量在内的面板协整方程,结合1994-2011年中国、日本等23个国家和地区的国别面板数据进行实证分析,研究发现：在实行自由浮动汇率制度下贸易差额对货币供给并不产生影响,而在实行固定汇率制度或者有管理的浮动汇率制度下贸易差额会引起货币供给的同方向变化,即贸易顺差会引起货币供应量的增加,贸易逆差则引起货币供应量的减少。因此,在当前实行人民币有管理的浮动汇率制度下,要适度控制贸易顺差对货币供给的冲击作用,以防范通货膨胀等风险。     

教育对非农就业工资收入不平等的解释研究

基于分位数回归方法和1989~2009年CHNS的入户数据,根据明瑟方程的回归结果显示,低收入组的教育收益率高于高收入组的教育收益率。通过重新构建的工资不平等程度度量变量和教育不平等以及经验差异度量变量,对离差模型的分位数回归结果显示虽然教育能够提高低收入群体的工资收入,但是教育差距并不能很好地解释收入不平等的扩大。     

The measurement of historical trends in fetal mortality in England and Wales

This paper critically discusses recent attempts to estimate long-term trends in the stillbirth rate for England and Wales. It assesses the available historical evidence for the level of late-fetal mortality, drawing especially on examples from Norway, Sweden, and Denmark. A theoretical fetal–infant life table for a high-mortality population is also outlined as a means of analysing the relationship between segments of the conception-to-first-birthday mortality curve. Finally, new estimates of the stillbirth rate for England and Wales are proposed, based on variations in the early neonatal and maternal mortality rates during the 1930s. These estimates are substantially lower than the earlier estimates and are more in keeping with the available evidence from northern Europe. The implications of the revised estimates for interpretations of historical changes in mortality patterns are also considered.     

Demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa: How big will the economic dividend be?

In mid-demographic-transition, many Asian countries enjoyed a large demographic ‘dividend’: extra economic growth owing to falling dependant/workforce ratios, or slower natural increase, or both. We estimate the dividend, 1985–2025, in sub-Saharan Africa and its populous countries. Dependency and natural increase peaked around 1985, 20 years after Asia. The UN projects an acceleration of the subsequent slow falls but disregards slowish declines in young-age mortality and thus, we argue, overestimates future fertility decline. Even if one accepts their projection, arithmetical and econometric evidence suggests an annual, if not total, dividend well below Asia's. The dividend arises more from falling dependency than reduced natural increase, and could be increased by accelerating the fertility decline (e.g., by reducing young-age mortality) or by employing a larger workforce productively. Any dividend from transition apart, low saving in much of Africa (unlike Asia) means that, given likely natural increase, current consumption per person is unsustainable because it depletes capital per person.