The determinants of international creditworthiness and their policy implications

The present paper utilizes an empirical measure of creditworthiness based on bankers' perceptions to estimate the effect of various variables hypothesized to influence assessments of countries' debt-servicing capacity. The data pertain to a cross section of countries within the period 1979–1983. Such estimates necessarily employ a ceteris paribus assumption, which prevents a realistic assessment of the effects generated by policy changes. The second part of the paper develops, therefore, a dynamic simulation model of a hypothetical average economy. The simulations allow analysis of changes in macroeconomic variables and creditworthiness over time within a system that maintains accounting identities and behavioral constraints. Several changes in policy variables are considered that highlight the importance of export expansion. The latter is, of course, an often suggested policy objective, but the present paper demonstrates its effectiveness in terms of a somewhat nonstandard criterion.     

The linkage effects of raw material processing in economic development: A survey of modeling and other approaches

Processing of primary raw materials has become an important and widely recommended strategy for economic development. Yet, even as the councils of many LDCs call for primary commodity producers to gain greater participation in downstream activities, there remain doubts on fundamental questions:What comparative advantage and what disadvantages do processing activities have in the LDCs?What linkages do processing activities offer?What is the potential contribution of processing to economic goal attainment in the LDCs?In this article we survey the material on processing, particularly with respect to modeling direct and indirect linkages between processing and the LDC economies. The article examines the following topics: (1) the literature on processing in economic development; (2) modeling processing linkages; and (3) outstanding questions regarding processing linkages.We focus on quantifiable linkages between the processing industry and the rest of the economy. There is also the possibility of other linkages, such as the development of entrepreneurship and management talent and technology, that are more difficult to quantify. It is important to distinguish between micro linkages, which refer to the direct impact on supplier and user sectors, and macro linkages, which include indirect general economic effects transmitted through government revenue and expenditures, the money supply, and foreign exchange availabilities.     

The bureaucratic response to economic fluctuation: An econometric investigation of Hungarian investment policies

This paper develops bureaucratic response functions within a “deviation from trend” econometric model to determine those factors that were related to fluctuations in aggregate investment finding and in the sectoral distribution of that aggretate during 1960–1975. Investment in buildings and investment in machinery are analyzed separately. On the national level, investment funding is found to respond to indicators of well-being, plan targets, bottlenecks, and foreign trade variables. Sectoral investment funding is based mainly on priority considerations.     

Political confrontation over fiscal processes: The impact of the U.S. Congressional Budget Act

In July 1974 the U.S. Congressional Budget Act was signed into law. This legislation was the result of a heavily fought political confrontation between President Nixon and Congress over who controlled the Federal budget. In addition to the issue of control, the Act was prompted by dissatisfaction with the procedures used by Congress to determine Federal receipts and expenditures. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact this legislation had on the U.S. economy in its early years.The first section of the paper sets up a simple modeling framework. The model is specified so as to illustrate how a change in the budget process resulting from the Congressional Budget Act could potentially produce changes in the level of total output. This section also explains the derivation of a tax and expenditure series used in the model's empirical testing. The second section addresses some of the theoretical issues, and presents the results of simulations based on the Chase, Wharton, and Data Resources econometric models. Broad conclusions are gathered in the final section.     

政治文明建设与人民政协工作

本文论述建设社会主义政治文明是社会主义的本质体现,是深化改革、扩大开放的必然要求,是社会主义民主政治制度自我完善和发展的客观需要;对于人民政协来说,建设社会主义政治文明是人民政协在新的历史条件下肩负的一项历史使命。     

紫花苜蓿的生产技术与畜牧养殖的利用价值

紫花苜蓿以其产草量高,草质优良,适口性好,营养价值高列牧草之首,堪称牧草之王。它耐寒抗旱,耐瘠薄,适应性强,是世界上栽培最早,种植最广的牧草,是各种牲畜最喜食的牧草。本文就紫花苜蓿的栽培技术和在畜牧养殖中的利用价值作了简述。     

我国民办高校学生管理的现状、问题及对策

在充分论述我国民办高校学生管理现状的基础上,概括出民办高校学生管理的一般特点及存在问题,提出进一步优化民办高校学生管理的若干策略。     

略论民族地区城镇化与农村富余劳动力转移

本文指出民族地区城镇化水平低是制约农村富余劳动力转移的主要因素,只有加快民族地区的城镇化进程,推动大中小城市和小城镇协调发展,才能合理有效地解决民族地区农村富余劳动力的转移问题。     

美国在日韩邦交正常化谈判中的作用（1951-1965）

日韩邦交正常化谈判(1951-1965)历时长达14年之久,不可避免地受到国际环境的影响,尤其受到美国东北亚战略的影响。反之,日韩会谈也从一个侧面反映了东北亚冷战格局的演变。探讨美国在日韩邦交正常化谈判中的作用,可以分析美国为什么“搭台”以及如何“搭台”的。     

Domestic Violence and Substance Use: Tackling Complexity

Domestic violence and substance use are issues which pervadesocial work practice, yet are often on the margins of the knowledgebase for practitioners and their managers. This article providesan overview of the literature on substance use and domesticviolence, highlighting the problems with the separation of bothpractice and policy in these areas. Research on substance useand the needs of women survivors of domestic violence are explored,alongside the more substantial literature on perpetrators ofdomestic violence and patterns of substance use. The problemsof a simplistic analysis which suggest that there is a causallink between substance use and domestic violence are highlighted.Using data from an on-going research project, the sources ofthe continuing and dysfunctional separation of work in theseareas are explored.