A Latent Process Model for Joint Modeling of Events and Marker

The paper formulates joint modeling of a counting process and a sequence of longitudinal measurements, governed by a common latent stochastic process. The latent process is modeled as a function of explanatory variables and a Brownian motion process. The conditional likelihood given values of the latent process at the measurement times, has been drawn using Brownian bridge properties; then integrating over all possible values of the latent process at the measurement times leads to the desired joint likelihood. An estimation procedure using joint likelihood and a numerical optimization is described. The method is applied to the study of cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease.     

Private Information and the ‘Information Function’: A Survey of Possible Uses

Under certain conditions private information can be a source of trade. Arbitrage for instance can occur as a result of the existence of private information. In this paper we want to explicitly model information. To do so we define an ‘information function’. This information function is a mathematical object, also known as a so called ‘wave function’. We use the definition of wave function as it is used in quantum mechanics and we attempt to show the usefulness of this wave function in an economic context. We attempt to answer the following questions. How does the information function relate to private information? How can we use the information function to define the ‘quantity’ of information? How can we use the information function in arbitrage-based option pricing? How can the information function be used in the formulation of a so called Universal Brownian motion?     

Games with Imperfectly Observable Actions in Continuous Time

This paper investigates a new class of two‐player games in continuous time, in which the players' observations of each other's actions are distorted by Brownian motions. These games are analogous to repeated games with imperfect monitoring in which the players take actions frequently. Using a differential equation, we find the set ℰ(r) of payoff pairs achievable by all public perfect equilibria of the continuous‐time game, where r is the discount rate. The same differential equation allows us to find public perfect equilibria that achieve any value pair on the boundary of the set ℰ(r). These public perfect equilibria are based on a pair of continuation values as a state variable, which moves along the boundary of ℰ(r) during the course of the game. In order to give players incentives to take actions that are not static best responses, the pair of continuation values is stochastically driven by the players' observations of each other's actions along the boundary of the set ℰ(r).     

完善中小股东股东大会召集和提案制度

保护中小股东是各国现代公司法的基本原则和重要制度。针对当前我国公司治理中突出的大股东压制中小股东的不合理现状,必须修改《公司法》,赋予中小股东更大、更切实的股东大会召集和提案权,以提高公司治理质量。     

Optimality of equidistant sampling designs for the Brownian motion with a quadratic drift

In the paper we show that the equidistant sampling designs are optimal for the model of Brownian motion with a quadratic drift and for any of its submodels. This result holds for all Loewner isotonic criteria of parametric optimality continuous on the set of regular information matrices, as well as for the mean squared error of the best linear unbiased predictor.     

On Estimation of Hurst Parameter Under Noisy Observations

It is widely accepted that some financial data exhibit long memory or long dependence, and that the observed data usually possess noise. In the continuous time situation, the factional Brownian motion B^H and its extension are an important class of models to characterize the long memory or short memory of data, and Hurst parameter H is an index to describe the degree of dependence. In this article, we estimate the Hurst parameter of a discretely sampled fractional integral process corrupted by noise. We use the preaverage method to diminish the impact of noise, employ the filter method to exclude the strong dependence, and obtain the smoothed data, and estimate the Hurst parameter by the smoothed data. The asymptotic properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are established. Simulations for evaluating the performance of the estimator are conducted. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

村民自治罢免权行使的路径选择——从选举罢免到自主罢免

选举罢免作为村民自治内容不可或缺的一个组成部分,自身机制存在的局限性致使罢免的价值无法凸显。自主罢免权,强调自主,主张村民有不受他人限制自主提出、完成罢免议案的权利。但受压力体制下乡镇政府的管制和乡村存在复杂的利益因素影响,自主罢免权的行使仍然会受到各种阻力。因而,要通过厘清罢免动议和罢免主体要件、明确罢免的具体程序、建立监督保障机制等方面完善自主罢免权。     

易开盖在线定点剔除技术

设计2种对高速生产线上在线视觉检测不合格易开盖的定点剔除方法。第1种是根据PC采集处理的盖子图片数与PLC计数对比,进行定点剔除;第2种是依靠运动控制卡,利用编码器对传送带位置编码数据,通过位置比较进行定点剔除。在易开盖注胶生产线的实际运行表明,2种方法均能可靠稳定运行。通过使用在线视觉检测和剔除技术,不仅减少了工人的劳动强度,而且保证了产品的质量。     

市场经济运行的三个规律及其三大顽疾

本文认为，失业人口、贫富两极分化和通货膨胀是市场经济的产物。资本积累是市场经济的运动规律，失业人口是资本积累的必然产物，同时也是市场经济的劳动人口运动规律；按要素功能分配是市场经济的分配规律，贫富两极分化则是按要素分配规律作用的必然产物；通货膨胀是市场价格和货币的运动规律。失业人口、贫富两极分化和通货膨胀是市场经济的三大顽疾，也是市场经济带给当代文明社会的共同社会问题。我国社会主义市场经济必须重视这三大社会难题的妥善解决。     

The least concave majorant of the empirical distribution function

The author compares two estimators of a continuous, concave distribution function having support on the positive half line. In terms of samples from uniform distributions, he gives stochastic bounds for the pointwise and sup‐norm differences between the least concave majorant of the empirical distribution function and the underlying distribution function. He also offers evidence demonstrating the almost paradoxical result that the empirical distribution function is not as good an estimator as its least concave majorant in terms of sup‐norm error but a better pointwise estimator of the true distribution function in terms of mean squared error.