An Examination of the Robustness to Non Normality of the EWMA Control Charts for the Dispersion

ABSTRACT

The EWMA control chart is used to detect small shifts in a process. It has been shown that, for certain values of the smoothing parameter, the EWMA chart for the mean is robust to non normality. In this article, we examine the case of non normality in the EWMA charts for the dispersion. It is shown that we can have an EWMA chart for dispersion robust to non normality when non normality is not extreme.     

One-sided EWMA control charts for monitoring Poisson processes with varying sample sizes

ABSTRACT

Recently considerable research has been devoted to monitoring increases of incidence rate of adverse rare events. This paper extends some one-sided upper exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts from monitoring normal means to monitoring Poisson rate when sample sizes are varying over time. The approximated average run length bounds are derived for these EWMA-type charts and compared with the EWMA chart previously studied. Extensive simulations have been conducted to compare the performance of these EWMA-type charts. An illustrative example is given.     

Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series

Two structural time series models for annual observations are constructed in terms of trend, cycle, and irregular components. The models are then estimated via the Kalman filter using data on five U.S. macroeconomic time series. The results provide some interesting insights into the dynamic structure of the series, particularly with respect to cyclical behavior. At the same time, they illustrate the development of a model selection strategy for structural time series models.     

Approximate variances for tolerance-distribution free ld50-estimators supplemented with abbott's correction

This paper is concerned with the 'tolerance-distribution free estimation of a LD50 (LC50) in a toxicity experiment with background mortality. Firstly the observed proportions mortality are adjusted by Abbott's formula. The LD50 is then obtained by inserting the adjusted proportions in the usual formula, but the variance formula is adapted to account for the variability in the background mortality.     

Effect of measurement error on exponentially weighted moving average control charts under ranked set sampling schemes

Control charts are a powerful statistical process monitoring tool often used to monitor the stability of manufacturing processes. In quality control applications, measurement errors adversely affect the performance of control charts. In this paper, we study the effect of measurement error on the detection abilities of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts for monitoring process mean based on ranked set sampling (RSS), median RSS (MRSS), imperfect RSS (IRSS) and imperfect MRSS (IMRSS) schemes. We also study the effect of multiple measurements and non-constant error variance on the performances of the EWMA control charts. The EWMA control chart based on simple random sampling is compared with the EWMA control charts based on RSS, MRSS, IRSS and IMRSS schemes. The performances of the EWMA control charts are evaluated in terms of out-of-control average run length and standard deviation of run lengths. It turns out that the EWMA control charts based on MRSS and IMRSS schemes are better than their counterparts for all measurement error cases considered here.     

Acceptance sampling plan based on an exponentially weighted moving average statistic with the yield index for autocorrelation between polynomial profiles

Acceptance sampling plans based on process yield indices provide a proven resource for the lot-sentencing problem when the required fraction defective is very low. In this study, a new sampling plan based on the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) model with yield index for lot sentencing for autocorrelation between polynomial profiles is proposed. The advantage of the EWMA statistic is the accumulation of quality history from previous lots. In addition, the number of profiles required for lot sentencing is more economical than in the traditional single sampling plan. Considering the acceptable quality level (AQL) at the producer's risk and the lot tolerance percent defective (LTPD) at the consumer's risk, we proposed a new search algorithm to determine the optimal plan parameters. The plan parameters are tabulated for various combinations of the smoothing constant of the EWMA statistic, AQL, LTPD, and two risks. A comparison study and two numerical examples are provided to show the applicability of the proposed sampling plan.     

Inference of Seasonal Long‐memory Time Series with Measurement Error

We consider the Whittle likelihood estimation of seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving‐average models in the presence of an additional measurement error and show that the spectral maximum Whittle likelihood estimator is asymptotically normal. We illustrate by simulation that ignoring measurement errors may result in incorrect inference. Hence, it is pertinent to test for the presence of measurement errors, which we do by developing a likelihood ratio (LR) test within the framework of Whittle likelihood. We derive the non‐standard asymptotic null distribution of this LR test and the limiting distribution of LR test under a sequence of local alternatives. Because in practice, we do not know the order of the seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving‐average model, we consider three modifications of the LR test that takes model uncertainty into account. We study the finite sample properties of the size and the power of the LR test and its modifications. The efficacy of the proposed approach is illustrated by a real‐life example.     

The Surrogate Henderson Filters in X-11

This paper explains the surrogate Henderson filters that are used in the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program to obtain trends at the ends of time series. It describes a prediction interpretation for these surrogate filters, justifies an approximation to the filters, proposed by Kenny & Durbin (1982), and proposes a further interpretation of the results. The starting point for the paper is unpublished work by Musgrave (1964a, 1964b). His work has continuing relevance to current seasonal adjustment practice. This paper makes that work generally available for the first time, and reviews and extends it.     

对高校教学秘书队伍建设的思考

提高教学质量是高等教育永恒的主题 ,教学管理是保障教育质量的核心工作之一。本文着眼于高校教学管理中的重要组成部分——系级教学秘书队伍 ,探讨了新形势下教学秘书应具备的素质 ,如何稳定教学秘书队伍 ,以及教学秘书队伍的合理更新 ,使教学秘书能更好地发挥参谋、调度和服务作用 ,完成教学运行过程中各个环节的工作 ,保障教学质量。     

集群企业外迁及其效应研究

集群中的企业外迁是与企业向某一区域聚集相逆的企业区位选择现象.相对于非集群企业,集群企业可以享受到集群共享性资源提供的非对称竞争优势.但是,企业集群在其自身演化过程中产生的集群网络失灵、聚集不经济,以及集群企业的战略重定位可能导致集群共享性资源相对吸引力下降.而集群企业外迁则正是基于与此环境基础变迁相匹配的企业战略选择.集群企业外迁可能有利于集群网络的成长,也可能导致集群网络的裂断,引发一定的企业集群风险,关键在于集群内部是否形成了梯队式的企业成长机制.