Some aspects of probability forecasting

The problems of assessing, comparing and combining probability forecasts for a binary events sequence are considered. A Gaussian threshold model (analytically of closed form) is introduced which allows generation of different probability forecast sequences valid for the same events. Chi - squared type test statistics, and also a marginal-conditional method are proposed for the assessment problem, and an asymptotic normality result is given. A graphical method is developed for the comparison problem, based upon decomposing arbitrary proper scoring rules into certain elementary scoring functions. The special role of the logarithmic scoring rule is examined in the context of Neyman - Pearson theory.     

试议汉语数词成语翻译策略选择

汉语成语里的数词成语占有很大比例，如何选择恰当的翻译策略，关系到文化交流和信息传递的成败。从跨文化交际的角度出发，结合英语读者的理解能力和接受心理，参考新版《现代汉英词典》的数词成语译法，提出直译一归化一意译的翻译策略选择顺序。     

网络新闻标题英译汉的再创造

网络新闻标题是决定受众是否索取深层新闻信息的第一选择关口。然而,要把网络新闻标题从英语翻译成汉语,激发读者深层阅读的欲望,并非易事。结合网络新闻标题英汉译实例,根据从传播学角度分析网络新闻标题英译汉中译者再创造的理据,译者可以通过得体的增删、工巧的措辞和灵活的修辞对标题进行再创造,以期汉语标题能起到揭示主题和吸引阅读的作用。     

■匜铭文集释及西周诬告案件的审理程序窥探

西周时期没有专门的法律条文,■是一篇涉法铭文,其中涉及到的犯罪是诬告罪。本文在对铭文进行集释和翻译的基础上,总结出这次诬告案件的审理程序,这有助于了解西周时期的法律情况。     

竞合形态的仿真研究

文章采用DLA分形模型对企业间的竞舍形态进行模拟。模拟结果表明企业间通过竞合关系形成的的分形体具有树枝状标度不变的复杂结构；竞合的初始状态对竞合形态有直接影响。     

商贸谈判的不同文化取向

作为国际商贸交流的重要手段，跨文化的商贸谈判越来越受到各国学者的注意。美国学者和日本学者最早注意到了美、日两国商贸谈判代表谈判风格的不同，此后国内外很多学者对此做出了一些有意义的概括。尽管很难对商贸谈判的民族特征或者文化特征做出准确的概括和描述，然而关于商贸谈判的文化性描述又经常看到。该文从民族文化的角度出发，以不向的文化取向为视角，对不同皇，匕成员的商贸谈判特征或者风格进行总结，意图从跨文化的角度，对实际商贸谈判做点滴贡献。     

Informed Public Preferences for Electricity Portfolios with CCS and Other Low‐Carbon Technologies

Public perceptions of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and other low‐carbon electricity‐generating technologies may affect the feasibility of their widespread deployment. We asked a diverse sample of 60 participants recruited from community groups in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to rank 10 technologies (e.g., coal with CCS, natural gas, nuclear, various renewables, and energy efficiency), and seven realistic low‐carbon portfolios composed of these technologies, after receiving comprehensive and carefully balanced materials that explained the costs and benefits of each technology. Rankings were obtained in small group settings as well as individually before and after the group discussions. The ranking exercise asked participants to assume that the U.S. Congress had mandated a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from power plants to be built in the future. Overall, rankings suggest that participants favored energy efficiency, followed by nuclear power, integrated gasification combined‐cycle coal with CCS and wind. The most preferred portfolio also included these technologies. We find that these informed members of the general public preferred diverse portfolios that contained CCS and nuclear over alternatives once they fully understood the benefits, cost, and limitations of each. The materials and approach developed for this study may also have value in educating members of the general public about the challenges of achieving a low‐carbon energy future.     

当代印度政坛中的雅利安人入侵理论争议初探

长期以来,由于受西方知识界对印欧文化百年研究积累的影响,＂雅利安人入侵理论＂始终位居学界主流,并进入印度与世界各国的教科书中,成为我们诠释印度古代历史的重要基础;时至今日,在后殖民学术批判风潮与印度教民族主义的推波助澜之下,此一理论却俨然成为具有高度政治争议性的论题。影响所及,不光是在印度国内的学界,更波及全世界的印度学研究社群。究竟对于＂雅利安人入侵理论＂的争论如何影响当代印度政治发展？此一理论为什么又能引起如此惊人的政治效应？各方对于此一理论的基本立场差异又是如何？透过本文的讨论,我们希望能针对这些问题提出回答。     

Now What Do People Know About Global Climate Change? Survey Studies of Educated Laypeople

In 1992, a mental‐models‐based survey in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, revealed that educated laypeople often conflated global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion, and appeared relatively unaware of the role of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in global warming. This study compares those survey results with 2009 data from a sample of similarly well‐educated laypeople responding to the same survey instrument. Not surprisingly, following a decade of explosive attention to climate change in politics and in the mainstream media, survey respondents in 2009 showed higher awareness and comprehension of some climate change causes. Most notably, unlike those in 1992, 2009 respondents rarely mentioned ozone depletion as a cause of global warming. They were also far more likely to correctly volunteer energy use as a major cause of climate change; many in 2009 also cited natural processes and historical climatic cycles as key causes. When asked how to address the problem of climate change, while respondents in 1992 were unable to differentiate between general “good environmental practices” and actions specific to addressing climate change, respondents in 2009 have begun to appreciate the differences. Despite this, many individuals in 2009 still had incorrect beliefs about climate change, and still did not appear to fully appreciate key facts such as that global warming is primarily due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and the single most important source of this carbon dioxide is the combustion of fossil fuels.     

大坡度条件下T梁单导梁架桥机的改装设计与应用

针对大坡度桥梁预制梁架设,以阿尔及利亚东西高速公路(中段)18公里桥为例,在原有架桥机基础上进行了改装设计,并采取其它工程措施保证了架梁的速度、质量和安全,使大坡度T梁架设工作得以顺利完成。