Some state space models of hiv epidemic and its applications for the estimation of hiv infection and incubation

In this paper we have developed some state space models for the HIV epidemic for populations at risk for AIDS. By using these state space models, we have developed a general Bayesian procedure for estimating simultaneously the unknown parameters and the state variables. The unknown parameters include the immigration and recruitment rates, the death and retirement rates, the incidence of HIV infection ( and hence the HIV infection distribution ) and the incidence of HIV incubation ( and hence the HIV incubation distribution). The state variables are the numbers of susceptible people (S people), HIV-infected people (I people) and AIDS incidence over time. The basic approach is through multi-level Gibbs sampler combined with the weighted bootstrap method. We have applied the methods to the Swiss AIDS homosexual and IV drug data to estimate simultaneously the unknown parameters and the state variables. Our results show that in both populations, both the HIV infection and HIV incubation have multi-peaks indicating the mixture nature of these distributions. Our results have also shown that the estimates of the death and retirement rates for I people are greater than those of S people, suggesting that the infection by HIV may have increased the death and retirement rates of the individuals.     

地方政府融资平台债务绩效评价指标体系的构建

针对地方政府融资平台债务的运作特点,以逻辑模型为基础,设计出横向包含"投入—过程—产出—影响"四个环节、纵向包括"绩效目标—绩效环节—绩效因素—绩效指标"四个级次的债务绩效评价指标体系框架。在此基础上,考虑到构建的债务绩效评价指标体系具有明显的多层次递阶特征,并且指标之间存在相互影响的网络关系,运用基于三角模糊数的网络层次分析法(FANP),确定债务绩效评价指标体系的各具体指标权重,进而为实践部门开展地方政府融资平台债务绩效评价提供科学工具并搭建操作平台。     

仿词造词研究

仿词造词大概分为:相关仿词、相对仿词、相反仿词、缩略仿词、谐音仿词、格式化仿词、兼(间)仿。仿词造词产生的新词语会对被仿词产生影响,可以使新词语具有不同的色彩和品位,同时具有鲜明的理据性,符合语言发展的渐变性规律;仿词造词可以进一步发现和挖掘词语的意义和功能,特别是仿词造词中的多级对应现象值得进一步研究。     

商业补充医疗保险参保因素的 Logistic 分析

同等条件下城乡居民是否参加商业补充医疗保险主要受3个因素的影响,即商业补充医疗保险是否允许优先点名某一医务工作者提供服务;商业补充医疗保险是否支付基本医疗保险基金支付个人门诊费用后的自付部分;商业补充医疗保险承保人是否定期提供疾病预防、健康咨询、健康评估、健康教育等方面的信息。为了扩大商业补充医疗保险的覆盖面,需要商业补充医疗保险提供者和医疗服务机构密切合作以提供优惠、优先医疗服务;需要商业补充医疗保险提供者把费用报销的重点放在报销基本医疗保险基金支付个人门诊费用后的自付部分;需要商业补充医疗保险提供者积极为被保险人提供疾病预防等方面的健康促进活动。     

多层次资本市场建设的国际经验及启示

在纳斯达克示范下,世界各国开始效仿创设自己的创业板。总体上,全球创业板市场发展出现明显分化,有些较为成功,吸引了上千家公司,并继续保持好的发展态势;而更多的市场,却欲振乏力,甚至几近停滞或关门大吉。创业板建设有自身的成败经验可循。美国经验表明,一个成功的多层次资本市场需要具备上市公司数量、优质资产、多元化上市标准和不同层次股票价格等基本要素。创业板成败与美国经验为我国新市场的上市标准、监管要求、交易规则、交易机制及设立模式提供了借鉴。     

安徽省国际旅游服务贸易竞争力评估研究——基于灰色多层次评估模型的视角

通过对安徽省国际旅游服务贸易竞争力指标的测评,运用灰色多层次分析方法对江西、江苏、北京、安徽等九省的竞争力指标进行综合评价,考察目前安徽省国际旅游服务贸易的竞争潜力和竞争实力。安徽省内旅游需求变得日益复杂,相关及辅助产业不断发展,旅游生产要素逐步提升,企业制度的转变为旅游企业带来活力,企业国际竞争力的提高等显示了各因素之间的良性运转和相互作用,使得国际旅游服务贸易具有良好的发展态势。     

现代汉语多重定语结构层次考察

在朱德熙对现代汉语多重定语进行阐释的基础上,对此结构进行重新分析,从语义认知层面作了全面考察,认为现代汉语多重定语有“结构内核”和“依附外围”两层结构,“依附外围”又分为“定位、定量、定指”三个定语层次,反映了人类由群体到个体,从现象到本质的认识事物的基本程序。     

ERP消化吸收的多层次探索性案例研究:自底向上的效应

基于“自底向上效应”这一多层次理论研究视角,探讨企业中个体层次ERP消化吸收是否以及如何对组织层次消化吸收程度产生影响,并设计了一个探索性多案例研究,对5家企业进行案例访谈.研究结果表明,企业的组织层次ERP消化吸收确实受到个体层次ERP消化吸收整体水平的影响,而且个体层次消化吸收中的VIP用户的构成情况及熟练用户的所占比例等因素,也会对组织层次ERP消化吸收产生影响.     

Performance evaluation of propensity score methods for estimating average treatment effects with multi-level treatments*

The propensity score (PS) method is widely used to estimate the average treatment effect (TE) in observational studies. However, it is generally confined to the binary treatment assignment. In an extension to the settings of a multi-level treatment, Imbens proposed a generalized propensity score which is the conditional probability of receiving a particular level of the treatment given pre-treatment variables. The average TE can then be estimated by conditioning solely on the generalized PS under the assumption of weak unconfoundedness. In the present work, we adopted this approach and conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of several methods using the generalized PS, including subclassification, matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW), and covariate adjustment. Compared with other methods, IPTW had the preferred overall performance. We then applied these methods to a retrospective cohort study of 228,876 pregnant women. The impact of the exposure to different types of the antidepressant medications (no exposure, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) only, non-SSRI only, and both) during pregnancy on several important infant outcomes (birth weight, gestation age, preterm labor, and respiratory distress) were assessed.