基于专家群组判断的主观概率确定

国内关于主观概率的研究很多,但主要集中在个体的判断上,对国际上主流的联合专家判断的研究方法鲜有涉及。在提出利用专家组工作的基础上,先采用聚类分析的方法,剔除个别离异点集;之后基于专家的判断力,赋予专家相应的权重,加权平均后,最终得出主观概率判断的结果。     

Social organization of the voleClethrionomys rufocanus and its demographic and genetic consequences: A review

Recent findings on the relationship between social interaction and demographic process in the gray-sided voleClethrionomys rufocanus are reviewed with reference to the findings in other microtine rodents. Social behavior was particularly focused on spacing and dispersal, and their effects on population dynamics are discussed. Female territoriality can limit a population abundance as a density-dependent factor, although its regulatory effect is controversial. Female philopatry and male-biased dispersal should bring about the clumped distribution of female relatives and genetically random distribution of males during the breeding season. The sexual difference in dispersal patterns can contribute to the mating behavior of the vole; promiscuous mating and low frequency of incestuous mating. However, effects of social structure, including kinship, on reproduction and survival of individuals still remains to be clarified. Molecular markers may help to solve these issues and provide new field of population ecology in microtine rodents.     

Typology of Gay Consumers’ Interaction Styles on Complaining Propensity

The purpose of this study is to develop a typology of gay male consumers based on self-concept variables related to social interactions. Openness about sexual orientation, collective self-esteem, stigma-consciousness, and negative evaluation were used to identify clusters of gay male consumers. An initial test sample (n = 125) suggested a three-cluster solution, and a validation sample (n = 247) established reproducibility of the proposed typology. Three clusters with distinct interaction styles emerged: “confident gay,” “diffident gay,” and “guarded gay.” Additionally, the usefulness of the typology is demonstrated by comparing the clusters on the basis of complaining propensity. Typologies of each cluster and implications for research and practice are discussed.     

The use of multidisciplinary teams to support child welfare clients

Meeting the educational needs of young people in the child welfare system (CWS) requires effective collaboration between the CWS and the education system. In Norway and in other countries, there is an increased focus on interprofessional collaboration to support child welfare clients in and around schools. Multidisciplinary teams are employed to facilitate collaboration and coordinate supportive measures. The purpose of this article is to describe how teachers and social workers use such teams as part of a collaborative effort to support children living in difficult conditions. In an inductive thematic analysis of 13 interviews with 7 social workers and 6 teachers, the following five key themes were revealed: (i) solution-focused work; (ii) listening to the child; (iii) parental support; (iv) social/environmental opportunities for successful interactions and (v) ensuring school attendance through adapted education and support. In conclusion, we discuss the ways in which these themes reflect how teams support child welfare clients.     

Reducing Child Labour Through Conditional Cash Transfers: Evidence from Nicaragua's Red de Protección Social

Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programmes, providing eligible households with periodic cash payments, contingent on their children's adherence to school enrolment and attendance requirements, hold considerable promise for reducing levels of child labour across the developing world. This article presents the results of an analysis of a CCT programme in Nicaragua, Red de Protección Social, and compares them with those of other CCT programmes, discussing how the structure of each programme's incentives, including differences in targeting, subsidy amounts and educational requirements, contributes to the variation in their effectiveness at reducing child labour.     

Is food safety a real concern in Mexico and Colombia? A preliminary report on a survey of small producers,retailers and consumers

Data that capture the impact of unsafe food in Mexico and Colombia are not readily available, yet are vital for well‐informed decisions to be taken towards reducing the problem. Using hierarchical cluster analyses, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and chi‐square tests, we analyzed 460 responses from small producers, retailers and consumers about food concerns and willingness to produce, sell or buy health‐certified food in these two countries. Food that is free of virus and bacteria was of concern to all respondents, and a small percentage reported suffering from food‐related illness. There has been investment in food‐safety certification, but the impact of this remains unknown. Producers and restaurants are far more interested in obtaining certification than are retailers. Consumers are willing to buy certified food even if it is expensive. This could provide an incentive to invest in food safety and spread its benefits.     

异核金属羰基簇合物 FeCo_2S(CO)_(9-n)〔P(OBu~n)_3〕_n(n=1-3)的合成与表征

本文利用Ｓｃｈｌｅｎｋ技术,在室温下以亚磷酸三丁酯配体Ｐ（ＯＢｕｎ）３（Ｂｕｎ＝ＣＨ３ＣＨ２ＣＨ２ＣＨ２－）和ＦｅＣｏ２Ｓ（ＣＯ）９为原料进行反应,合成出了三个新的异核羰基簇合物。通过元素分析、ＩＲ、１ＨＮＭＲ以及ＭＳ等表征手段,推测出新簇合物的分子结构分别是ＦｅＣｏ２Ｓ（ＣＯ）９的一、二、三取代衍生物。     

Disciplining Bioethics: Towards a Standard of Methodological Rigor in Bioethics Research

Contemporary bioethics research is often described as multi- or interdisciplinary. Disciplines are characterized, in part, by their methods. Thus, when bioethics research draws on a variety of methods, it crosses disciplinary boundaries. Yet each discipline has its own standard of rigor-–so when multiple disciplinary perspectives are considered, what constitutes rigor? This question has received inadequate attention, as there is considerable disagreement regarding the disciplinary status of bioethics. This disagreement has presented five challenges to bioethics research. Addressing them requires consideration of the main types of cross-disciplinary research, and consideration of proposals aiming to ensure rigor in bioethics research.     

Comparing unemployment protection and social assistance in 14 European countries. Four worlds of protection for people of working age

Pfeifer, M. Comparing unemployment protection and social assistance in 14 European countries. Four worlds of protection for people of working age This article aims to show which policy responses 14 Western European countries have adopted to deal with rising unemployment levels and increased need for benefits during working age. In contrast to earlier studies, both components of unemployment benefits (UB), i.e. unemployment insurance and unemployment assistance, were taken into account in a social rights indicator that depicts the legal entitlements of the unemployed. In total, there were eight indicators of both UB and social assistance representing expenditure, generosity, problem pressure and benefit entitlements. The following cluster analysis groups countries using these indicators. The resulting typology consisted of four ways of protecting the working‐aged: an extensive safety nets type operating well with functioning labour markets; a liberal protection type dealing with low levels of unemployment; a targeted protection type combined with an insider–outsider divide on the labour market; and lastly, a patchy safety nets type facing high unemployment levels.     

Enhancing the Justice System's Response to Elder Abuse: Discussions and Recommendations of the “Improving Prosecution” Working Group of The National Policy Summit on Elder Abuse

ABSTRACT

Original analysis of data from the British national disability surveys is undertaken to throw light on the problem of elder abuse. The prevalence of behavioral problems among individuals living in private households in Great Britain in 1985 is described, and the ages and living arrangements of those with potentially aggressive behavior is examined. The data suggest that the potential for abuse arises in a variety of living arrangements. Tentative estimates are provided for the numbers of older people potentially at risk because they themselves have, or are living with someone who has, a disability that involves violent or aggressive behavior.