Assessing Engineering Resilience for Systems with Multiple Performance Measures

Recently, efforts to model and assess a system's resilience to disruptions due to environmental and adversarial threats have increased substantially. Researchers have investigated resilience in many disciplines, including sociology, psychology, computer networks, and engineering systems, to name a few. When assessing engineering system resilience, the resilience assessment typically considers a single performance measure, a disruption, a loss of performance, the time required to recover, or a combination of these elements. We define and use a resilient engineered system definition that separates system resilience into platform and mission resilience. Most complex systems have multiple performance measures; this research proposes using multiple objective decision analysis to assess system resilience for systems with multiple performance measures using two distinct methods. The first method quantifies platform resilience and includes resilience and other “ilities” directly in the value hierarchy, while the second method quantifies mission resilience and uses the “ilities” in the calculation of the expected mission performance for every performance measure in the value hierarchy. We illustrate the mission resilience method using a transportation systems‐of‐systems network with varying levels of resilience due to the level of connectivity and autonomy of the vehicles and platform resilience by using a notional military example. Our analysis found that it is necessary to quantify performance in context with specific mission(s) and scenario(s) under specific threat(s) and then use modeling and simulation to help determine the resilience of a system for a given set of conditions. The example demonstrates how incorporating system mission resilience can improve performance for some performance measures while negatively affecting others.     

我国企业多元化投资决策的反思

企业多元化经营战备是当今世界许多大中型企业的一种战备选择。我国的一些大企业近年来也走上了多元化经营的道路 ,但多数都身陷困境或遭受失败 ,主要是由于多元化投资决策失误所致。因此 ,深入探讨多元化投资的理论和战略 ,对我国一些大中型企业来说 ,就显得十分重要。     

"职业教育"概念与功能的历史观

职业伴随着劳动分工而产生,职业教育则是近代大机器工业的产物。在不同的历史时期,人们从不同的角度观察,并对职业教育产生了不同的认识,以不同的名称表述,赋予不同的功能。"五四"时期职业教育的多元共生,反映出人们对职业教育概念、功能的不同认识,这也是中国近代职业教育向现代职业教育跨越的重要标志。     

Marginal Means/Rates Models for Multiple Type Recurrent Event Data

Recurrent events are frequently observed in biomedical studies, and often more than one type of event is of interest. Follow-up time may be censored due to loss to follow-up or administrative censoring. We propose a class of semi-parametric marginal means/rates models, with a general relative risk form, for assessing the effect of covariates on the censored event processes of interest. We formulate estimating equations for the model parameters, and examine asymptotic properties of the parameter estimators. Finite sample properties of the regression coefficients are examined through simulations. The proposed methods are applied to a retrospective cohort study of risk factors for preschool asthma.     

茅盾小说与"红楼"情结

“红楼”情结是茅盾经久的“图像仓库”的土壤。但这种情结不是板块式地嵌入的 ,而是经由转化、挪移、重组化合而生成的。这种历史的承传 ,可以是正面的 ,也可以是负面的。同时 ,这种对民族文化的吸取是在与中外艺术的多元交糅的关系中 ,融通建构的。     

Information preserving statistical obfuscation

The problem of limiting the disclosure of information gathered on a set of companies or individuals (the respondents) is considered, the aim being to provide useful information while preserving confidentiality of sensitive information. The paper proposes a method which explicitly preserves certain information contained in the data. The data are assumed to consist of two sets of information on each respondent: public data and specific survey data. It is assumed in this paper that both sets of data are liable to be released for a subset of respondents. However, the public data will be altered in some way to preserve confidentiality whereas the specific survey data is to be disclosed without alteration. The paper proposes a model based approach to this problem by utilizing the information contained in the sufficient statistics obtained from fitting a model to the public data by conditioning on the survey data. Deterministic and stochastic variants of the method are considered.     

"亲美入亚”与冷战后的日本亚太战略选择

日本传统的亚洲观始终处于"脱亚”或"归亚”双重的困惑之中.随着冷战的终结,它开始向现实的"亲美入亚”战略转换.现实主义的势力均衡论是日美安全保障重新定义的依据;自由的制度论是建立日美经济同盟,实现日美自由贸易协定的框架;亚洲外交中心构图体现了日本充当亚洲盟主的企图."亲美入亚”战略转换,来自日本国内的支持力是保守、革新两党价值目标的趋同.经济主义是这一趋同形成的原因.     

东方与西方历史观的对话--与美国学者萨米尔@皮尔逊就历史观念的探讨

皮尔逊教授从文化传统差异的角度论述了中国史学研究中对"客体”的过度偏重,以及西方学者更注重主观参与与历史客观的结合的两种不同的历史观念及其利弊得失.中方学者在一定程度上肯定了皮尔逊教授观点的同时,还指出了道德评价在历史研究中的意义,认为历史研究既要主观地从多种角度去考察,又不能淡化原始文献的客观性.     

带预算约束的广告主均衡报价研究——基于纳什均衡角度

从广告主角度出发，研究基于纳什均衡概念的带有预算约束的关键词拍卖问题。首先推导出纳什均衡下各个广告主报价的上界和下界。其次给出广告主报价向上偏离无利可图的充要条件，并进行了数值分析。此外，通过数值实例分析了广告主报价向下偏离时对其收益的影响。利用各个广告主报价的上下界和预算刻画了带有预算约束的纳什均衡。最后，利用广告主报价在纳什均衡下的上界给出报价向量是带预算约束的纳什均衡的充要条件。对于广告主制定预算策略具有参考作用。     

人民币汇率失衡与调整问题研究

 摘　　要:目前，学术界在人民币汇率问题的研究上存在着分歧。尤其是对均衡汇率的测算，在方法上存在不足。多数模型的设计实质上是把名义汇率或实际有效汇率的平滑值当作了均衡汇率，而非真正的经济学意义上的均衡汇率。本文设计了一种“多目标两阶段估值”的方法来测算均衡汇率：在第一阶段，依据实现均衡汇率的各个目标，分别估算不同目标条件下的均衡汇率；第二阶段，以第一阶段估算的均衡汇率和实现均衡汇率的各目标建立计量模型，得到均衡汇率精算值。在深入分析汇率失衡给宏观经挤带来的后果的基础上，依据均衡汇率的计算结果，本文认为，提升汇率符合中国的长期利益和根本利益，而且在觋阶段政府还不应该放弃对汇率调整的干预