全球化背景下的中国现代性建构

全球化并不预示着一个全球大同时代的来临，反而在很大程度上表现了文化之间的差异性甚至对抗性。在这样的时代背景下，对于各民族文化尤其是对非西方社会来说，如何理解现代性与追求自身的现代化，成为一个紧迫的任务。在中国现代性的建构过程中，既要求加深对现代性的理解，也要求更好地把握自己的文化传统。     

岩体变形参数的应力状态效应研究

岩体力学参数存在随应力状态不同而变化的特性，称为应力状态效应。岩体力学特性的实测值具有空间场分布特征，分析表明地应力（或围压）的有规律变化是造成岩体力学参数空间变化的主要原因。考虑到实测地应力多具有较大的离散型，尝试利用反演方法获取地应力场信息，通过多元回归分析得到实测岩体变形参数与地应力的经验关系，以研究岩体变形参数的应力状态效应。通过一工程实例研究：得到地下厂房区域的岩体变形模量为16 GPa左右，与反演分析结果也比较符合；通过应力状态效应研究得到的岩体变形参数物理场，是一个渐变的物理场模型，是更为符     

论《潮水集》跨文体写作的艺术张力

散文集《潮水集》的跨文体写作主要表现在两个方面：一是文史交融，作者建构了一个三维情感世界，使作品在文学与历史中穿行；二是均衡之美，表现在“叙事一抒情一叙事”和“议论一抒情一议论”两个创作模式上。     

农村社会生态理性的社会学研究

本文从理性视角构筑认识论框架,在此框架内对环境价值作出评估。在肯定理性多样化并存的前提下,把两个最具争议的理性——经济理性与生态理性并列齐观,以阐明二者在环境问题上的分歧,并从中揭示出中心价值对边陲价值的侵犯,并以政治形式将其合法化、正当化的过程。如何实现经济理性与生态理性的和解,宏观层面需要工业文明向生态文明的转变,微观层面需要从＂以人为中心＂的价值观向＂人与环境和谐共处＂的价值观转向,在这一转向过程中经济理性与生态理性相平衡的价值观教育是很有必要的。     

Effects of Alternative Policies on Income Redistribution: Evidence from Brazil

Despite recent successes, Brazilian income (cash) transfer policies remain controversial, and alternative approaches to income redistribution are being actively considered. This article contributes to this debate, analysing the effects of several alternative policies for income redistribution in the Brazilian economy using a computable general equilibrium model. Simulations were conducted consistent with the following policies: direct transfer of income, reduction of taxes, and incentives to agricultural exports. The results suggest that transfer of income is the most effective in promoting redistribution of income, with a positive impact on the level of welfare of the poorest households.     

Using multiple imputation to estimate cumulative distribution functions in longitudinal data analysis with data missing at random

In longitudinal clinical studies, after randomization at baseline, subjects are followed for a period of time for development of symptoms. The interested inference could be the mean change from baseline to a particular visit in some lab values, the proportion of responders to some threshold category at a particular visit post baseline, or the time to some important event. However, in some applications, the interest may be in estimating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) at a fixed time point post baseline. When the data are fully observed, the CDF can be estimated by the empirical CDF. When patients discontinue prematurely during the course of the study, the empirical CDF cannot be directly used. In this paper, we use multiple imputation as a way to estimate the CDF in longitudinal studies when data are missing at random. The validity of the method is assessed on the basis of the bias and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov distance. The results suggest that multiple imputation yields less bias and less variability than the often used last observation carried forward method. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of all-zero binomial outcomes with borderline and equilibrium priors

This article is concerned with the analysis of a random sample from a binomial distribution when all the outcomes are zero (or unity). We discuss how elicitation of the prior can be reduced to asking the expert whether (and which of) the so-called borderline or equilibrium priors are plausible.     

德沃金的建构性解释与反思平衡

“反思平衡”是一种道德原则或道德理论的证立方法,其具体过程可以分为四个阶段.反思平衡包括狭窄的反思平衡和宽泛的反思平衡,二者追求的目标分别是局部融贯和整体融贯.德沃金的“建构性解释”方法是反思平衡在法理学中的应用.建构性解释中的“符合”和“最佳”维度分别体现了狭窄的反思平衡和宽泛的反思平衡的要求.     

Who by Accident? The Social Morphology of Car Accidents

Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers’ social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road‐accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death.     

个人选择与政府选择的制度平衡

中国近几十年的经济发展与个人选择权的增加和政府控制的减少有很大关系,而目前两者之间相互调整的不到位是一些深层次社会结构性矛盾产生的主要原因。在全球化背景下,如何立足中国的现实环境,探讨中国长治久安、和谐发展的社会制度安排,尤其是个人选择与政府选择之间的制度平衡,是一个重要的理论和实践课题。