一种具有不确定偏好序信息的多指标群决策方法

针对具有不确定偏好序信息的多指标群决策问题,给出了一种决策分析方法。在本文中,首先对具有不确定偏好序信息的多指标群决策问题进行了描述;然后给出了将不确定偏好序转换为投票数的计算公式;进一步地,依据Bernardo方法的基本思想,根据每个专家给出的不确定偏好序信息,计算相应的投票数并构建群体投票矩阵,并基于群体投票矩阵构建0-1整数规划模型,通过求解模型可得到方案排序结果。最后,通过一个算例以及与已有方法的对比分析说明了本文给出的方法的可行性和有效性。     

系统功能语法多重主位问题探讨

继德国学者和布拉格学派学者对主位结构的研究之后,系统功能语言学者,尤其是Halliday对主位结构进行了相当广泛的研究,但多重主位的界定与序列结构仍然需要进一步加以探讨。文章从概念主位中的重合问题、多重主位的界限问题以及研究主位结构的意义等角度出发,具体分析了Halliday的多重主位观所存在的问题。      

Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics With Many Firms

We propose an approximation method for analyzing Ericson and Pakes (1995)‐style dynamic models of imperfect competition. We define a new equilibrium concept that we call oblivious equilibrium, in which each firm is assumed to make decisions based only on its own state and knowledge of the long‐run average industry state, but where firms ignore current information about competitors' states. The great advantage of oblivious equilibria is that they are much easier to compute than are Markov perfect equilibria. Moreover, we show that, as the market becomes large, if the equilibrium distribution of firm states obeys a certain “light‐tail” condition, then oblivious equilibria closely approximate Markov perfect equilibria. This theorem justifies using oblivious equilibria to analyze Markov perfect industry dynamics in Ericson and Pakes (1995)‐style models with many firms.     

Incentives for information sharing in duopoly with capacity constraints

We study the ex ante incentives for firms to share their private information in a Cournot duopoly with capacity constraints. In both demand and cost information sharing games, we show that the incentives can be reversed when some equilibrium solutions are binding on capacity. Especially, we identify some conditions under which partial information sharing is the dominant strategy under both games. Numerical examples are provided for illustration. In addition, we show that information sharing does not necessarily increase social welfare.     

基于演化博弈的电力竞价市场均衡分析

基于非对称演化博弈原理,分别时MCP与PAB竞价机制下的电力竞价市场演化情况进行分析,在此基础上,从市场效率的角度对上述演化均衡进行政策分析,分析结果表明:在MCP机制下,选择适当的竞价上下限,可诱导电力竞价市场收敛于市场效率最高的竞价下限;但在PAB机制下,则不一定.最后,对由5个发电商组成的电力竞价市场进行了算例分析.     

双层规划在城市交通污染控制中的一个应用

本文从控制城市交通污染的角度出发,考虑到用户的路径选择行为,采用双层规划模型描述城市交通管理与污染控制问题,并给出了相应的启发式求解算法及算例,在此基础上,提出了城市交通管理与污染控制框架。     

The use of conditional cutoffs in a forward selection procedure

Using a forward selection procedure for selecting the best subset of regression variables involves the calculation of critical values (cutoffs) for an F-ratio at each step of a multistep search process. On dropping the restrictive (unrealistic) assumptions used in previous works, the null distribution of the F-ratio depends on unknown regression parameters for the variables already included in the subset. For the case of known σ, by conditioning the F-ratio on the set of regressors included so far and also on the observed (estimated) values of their regression coefficients, we obtain a forward selection procedure whose stepwise type I error does not depend on the unknown (nuisance) parameters. A numerical example with an orthogonal design matrix illustrates the difference between conditional cutoffs, cutoffs for the centralF-distribution, and cutoffs suggested by Pope and Webster.     

Some essentially complete classes for bayesian multistage sampling inspection

Bayesian multistage inspection plans are often used in inadequate cost models. By means of essentially complete classes this point is made, as well as that of fixed and truncated plans.     

Multiple clusters on the line

Given N events occurring over time, define an n:t cluster as n consecutive events all contained within an interval of length t. In this paper we derive the expectation, variance and approximate distribution of the number of n:t clusters. The results have applications in epidemiological studies of rare diseases.     

Optimal Routing Among ⋅/M/1 Queues with Partial Information

Abstract

When routing dynamically randomly arriving messages, the controller of a high-speed communication network very often gets the information on the congestion state of down stream nodes only after a considerable delay, making that information irrelevant at decision epochs. We consider the situation where jobs arrive according to a Poisson process and must be routed to one of two (parallel) queues with exponential service time distributions (possibly with different means), without knowing the congestion state in one of the queues. However, the (conditional) probability distribution of the state of the unobservable queue can be computed by the router. We derive the joint probability distribution of the congestion states in both queues as a function of the routing policy. This allows us to identify optimal routing schemes for two types of frameworks: global optimization, in which the weighted sum of average queue lengths is minimized, and individual optimization, in which the goal is to minimize the expected delay of individual jobs.