20世纪90年代美日财政政策实证与比较分析

2 0世纪 90年代对于美国和日本来说是十分不同的。从财政政策角度讲 ,美国由于成功地实施了刺激经济增长和削减财政赤字的财政政策而使 2 0世纪 90年代成为“得到的十年” ;而日本由于政府对经济形势判断的失误和由此导致的财政政策失误等原因使 2 0世纪 90年代成为“失去的十年”。这一事实表明 ,正确地判断经济形势、健全的财政和完善的市场机制作用的充分发挥 ,是财政政策发挥作用的重要前提。     

Testing noninferiority in three‐armed clinical trials based on likelihood ratio statistics

Clinical noninferiority trials with at least three groups have received much attention recently, perhaps due to the fact that regulatory agencies often require that a placebo group be evaluated along with a new experimental drug and an active control. The authors discuss likelihood ratio tests for binary endpoints and various noninferiority hypotheses. They find that, depending on the particular hypothesis, the test reduces asymptotically either to the intersection‐union test or to a test which follows asymptotically a mixture of generalized chi‐squared distributions. They investigate the performance of this asymptotic test and provide an exact modification. They show that this test considerably outperforms multiple testing methods such as the Bonferroni adjustment with respect to power. They illustrate their methods with a cancer study to compare antiemetic agents. Finally, they discuss the extension of the results to other settings, such as Gaussian endpoints.     

消费场理论——可持续发展议题的经济学沉思

本文从可持续发展角度,提出并阐释了全新的消费范畴──消费场;阐述了导入消费场范畴后消费结构的演进规律;着重探讨了建立在消费场范畴基点上,与部分产出财富观和全产出财富观具有重大差异,可显著改善人类社会财富图景的综合财富观。     

Applied general equilibrium analysis of trade liberalisation on land-based sectors in Malaysia and Indonesia

This paper presents general equilibrium evaluations of forest sector trade for Southeast Asian exporters. The four scenarios examined range from the 1994 Uruguay Round tariff reductions to a complete liberalisation of forest and agricultural products trade. We find that simultaneous reductions in forest and agricultural sector tariffs make Indonesia and Malaysia worse off. For Indonesia, this is due to the fall in forest rent and agricultural tariff revenues. Malaysia has the highest ratio of agricultural imports to total land-based sector imports, the rise in agricultural prices thus hits Malaysian consumers the hardest.We find that terms of trade effect omitted from the partial equilibrium framework may reduce the welfare calculations for Malaysia and Indonesia in the forest sector trade by as much as 106 and 58%, respectively. This points to the importance of general equilibrium modelling in the logging industry. The same applies to other sector specific analyses where trade is concentrated between few countries.     

On the Deng-Lin random number generators and related methods

We study the structure and point out weaknesses of recently proposed random number generators based on special types of linear recurrences with small coefficients, which allow fast implementations. Our theoretical analysis is complemented by the results of simple empirical statistical tests that the generators fail decisively. Directions for improvement and alternative generators are also pointed out.     

有固相析出的多效错流蒸发过程的热量衡算方法

本文提出了有固相析出的错流进料多效蒸发过程的热量衡算方法，并给出了利用本文热量衡算方法结合相图计算进行有固相析出的多效错以蒸发过程的物料衡算和热量衡算的逐步逼近计算步骤。     

On the effect of item nonresponse on the estimation of a two–panel–waves wage equation

Summary: In this paper, we present results of the estimation of a two–panel–waves wage equation based on completely observed units and on a multiply imputed data set. In addition to the survey information, reliable income data is available from the register. These external data are used to assess the reliability of wage regressions that suffer from item nonresponse. The findings reveal marked differences between the complete case analyses and both versions of multiple imputation analyses. We argue that the results based on the multiply imputed data sets are more reliable than those based on the complete case analysis.* We would like to thank Statistics Finland for providing the data. We are also very grateful to Susanna Sandström and Marjo Pyy–Martikainen for their helpful advice using the Finnish data. Helpful comments from Joachim Winter and participants of the Workshop on Item Nonresponse and Data Quality in Large Social Surveys, Basel, October, 2003, on an earlier version of the paper are greatfully acknowledged. Further, we would like to thank three anonymous referees and the editor for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Marginal Regression of Multivariate Event Times Based on Linear Transformation Models

Multivariate event time data are common in medical studies and have received much attention recently. In such data, each study subject may potentially experience several types of events or recurrences of the same type of event, or event times may be clustered. Marginal distributions are specified for the multivariate event times in multiple events and clustered events data, and for the gap times in recurrent events data, using the semiparametric linear transformation models while leaving the dependence structures for related events unspecified. We propose several estimating equations for simultaneous estimation of the regression parameters and the transformation function. It is shown that the resulting regression estimators are asymptotically normal, with variance–covariance matrix that has a closed form and can be consistently estimated by the usual plug-in method. Simulation studies show that the proposed approach is appropriate for practical use. An application to the well-known bladder cancer tumor recurrences data is also given to illustrate the methodology.     

英语表达中巧妙的联想和创意

以丰富的例句为佐证,从多个角度阐释了运用联想和创意等艺术手段在英语表达中所能达到的独特意境。这些手段涵盖了英语词汇的形、音、韵、搭配、用词重复、语义扩展、语义模糊、形象刻画、借题发挥、语义联想等各个方面,巧妙构思,“借题发挥”,以形象生动的方式起到传神达意的效果。说明语言的运用是一门艺术,用艺术的语言去传递思想,则具有更生动的表现力和更强的感染力,也必然使语言表现形式绚丽多彩。     

多孔介质中油气体系相平衡规律研究

油气体系和储层多孔介质是一个相互作用的系统,当地层压力低于饱和压力时,储层中同时存在气、液、固(指岩石) 三相。在多孔介质中,由于孔隙半径小,因而毛细管压力应予以考虑。在建立了考虑毛细管压力的相平衡计算模型之后,针对二个凝析气藏,一个黑油油藏和一个挥发油藏,分别对其油气体系的毛细管压力、饱和压力和恒组成膨胀过程中液相含量进行了相态模拟计算,并总结出毛细管压力对油气体系相平衡的影响规律。