秦汉审美文化生态论纲

审美文化生态是指审美文化赖以生成、发展、变化的环境总和或有机完整系统。它的研究任务是深入把握审美文化与其生存环境本质的、必然的联系,为准确揭示特定时代审美文化的审美理想和基本特征、全面分析审美文化的本体内容提供必要的前提和基础。秦汉审美文化生态的主旋律和大趋势是“大一统”。其主要构成包括自然环境的浸润陶染、科学技术的骄人成就、空前统一的民族与国家、多元多重的文化整合、开放进取的精神风貌、阴阳五行的宇宙观和思维模式、“大一统”下士的使命和命运等多元因素。     

Behavioral Modeling of Adversaries with Multiple Objectives in Counterterrorism

Attacker/defender models have primarily assumed that each decisionmaker optimizes the cost of the damage inflicted and its economic repercussions from their own perspective. Two streams of recent research have sought to extend such models. One stream suggests that it is more realistic to consider attackers with multiple objectives, but this research has not included the adaption of the terrorist with multiple objectives to defender actions. The other stream builds off experimental studies that show that decisionmakers deviate from optimal rational behavior. In this article, we extend attacker/defender models to incorporate multiple objectives that a terrorist might consider in planning an attack. This includes the tradeoffs that a terrorist might consider and their adaption to defender actions. However, we must also consider experimental evidence of deviations from the rationality assumed in the commonly used expected utility model in determining such adaption. Thus, we model the attacker's behavior using multiattribute prospect theory to account for the attacker's multiple objectives and deviations from rationality. We evaluate our approach by considering an attacker with multiple objectives who wishes to smuggle radioactive material into the United States and a defender who has the option to implement a screening process to hinder the attacker. We discuss the problems with implementing such an approach, but argue that research in this area must continue to avoid misrepresenting terrorist behavior in determining optimal defensive actions.     

A Study on a Sequential One‐Defender‐N‐Attacker Game

Government usually faces threat from multiple attackers. However, in the literature, researchers often model attackers as one monolithic player who chooses whether to attack, how much investment to spend, and on which target, instead of treating multiple attackers as independent agents. This modeling strategy may potentially cause suboptimal defense investment if the attackers have vastly different interests and preferences and may not be combined as one in theory. In this article, we develop a sequential game with complete information. This model considers one defender explicitly dealing with multiple unmergeable attackers. Thorough numerical experiments are conducted using ratio and exponential contest success functions under different scenarios. The result is also contrasted with the corresponding single attacker model to study the effect of mishandling multiple attackers. The propositions and observations drawn from the numerical experiments provide insights for government decision making with a better understanding of the attackers' behavior.     

Sequential Hazards Resilience of Interdependent Infrastructure System: A Case Study of Greater Toronto Area Energy Infrastructure System

Coupled infrastructure systems and complicated multihazards result in a high level of complexity and make it difficult to assess and improve the infrastructure system resilience. With a case study of the Greater Toronto Area energy system (including electric, gas, and oil transmission networks), an approach to analysis of multihazard resilience of an interdependent infrastructure system is presented in the article. Integrating network theory, spatial and numerical analysis methods, the new approach deals with the complicated multihazard relations and complex infrastructure interdependencies as spatiotemporal impacts on infrastructure systems in order to assess the dynamic system resilience. The results confirm that the effects of sequential hazards on resilience of infrastructure (network) are more complicated than the sum of single hazards. The resilience depends on the magnitude of the hazards, their spatiotemporal relationship and dynamic combined impacts, and infrastructure interdependencies. The article presents a comparison between physical and functional resilience of an electric transmission network, and finds functional resilience is always higher than physical resilience. The multiple hazards resilience evaluation approach is applicable to any type of infrastructure and hazard and it can contribute to the improvement of infrastructure planning, design, and maintenance decision making.     

Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions

Many real‐world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the mission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real‐world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and the cost‐related and the time‐wise restrictions for this are not very severe. The probabilistic model for the multiattempt case is suggested and the tradeoff between the overall mission success probability (MSP) and a system loss probability is discussed. The corresponding optimization problems are formulated. For the considered illustrative example, a detailed sensitivity analysis is performed that shows specifically that even when the system's survival is not so important, mission aborting can be used to maximize the multiattempt MSP.     

德尔菲神谕：模糊性、制度和多源流

“多源流理论”作为西方公共政策过程分析中广泛应用的工具，缺乏制度因素的考量已是不争的事实，因此，将制度因素融入多源流框架是十分有必要的。制度通过倡导价值等方式促进或限制决策，而模糊性引起制度理解上的多样化，模糊性程度和政策执行内容的双重作用又形塑政策变迁的方式。同时，政策企业家的行动策略对政策执行有重要影响，具体表现为：由于个人特质和操作技术方面存在差异，制度和行动者策略会影响到决策者的注意力、方案选择乃至政策产出。尽管制度变量没有改变多源流理论的内在逻辑，但是制度因素对多源流理论产生的影响是未来公共政策研究的一个方向。     

动词前“来”功能的多样性与属性的统一性

“来”在“（PP／VP）＋来＋VP”句式中的功能纷繁复杂，以往的研究主要着眼于个性的挖掘，进而不断地分裂出新的属性。而从认知语言学的角度看，那些分布于不同旬法环境中的“来”，虽表现不同，但其本质上还都保留了“位移”这一核心特征，因此在属性上仍可统一处理为动词。     

基于多重期权法的中国可转债价值研究

可转债包含转股、回售、赎回和重置转股价等条款,可将其视为包含多重期权的衍生产品,不同的条款设计对可转债的理论价值产生重要的影响。文章探讨了适合复杂条款的多重期权分析方法,针对中国市场进行了实证研究。实证结果表明:中国市场可转债价值在近年来被高估了,这个结果与国内外大多数研究结果相异;重置转股价格条款和回售条件对可转债价格有较大的影响,是导致中国可转债价格高估的主要原因,不同条款的设计反映了发行人的不同目标。     

从三封书信看《西游记》神魔叙事的文人气息

近年来学界从多角度多层次对百回本《西游记》展开多元阐释，而文化研究就是其中的一个维度。作为文人士子的吴承恩无疑是一位神魔叙事的行家里手，同时也在情节展开中流露出浓厚的文人情结，而《西游记》中的前后三封书信更加充分地展示出其中的文人气息。     

现代性的多元之维——艾森斯塔特的"多元现代性"观念及其对中国的启发

艾森斯塔特阐述了多元现代性的形成及其动力,从时间与空间、事实描述与理论反思的角度阐释了“多元现代性”观念,批判了隐含于现代性、多元现代性之中的破坏性因素。艾森斯塔特的“多元现代性”观念对中国的现代性建设具有重要的启发意义:有助于我们认识当代世界的状况及全球化的发展趋势,全面而科学地认识现代性;促使我们注重从中国的实际出发,发挥自己作为后发展国家的优势,发挥传统与历史经验的作用,趋利避害,探索有自己特色的现代性之路。