Bayesian prediction of waiting times in stochastic models

The authors show how saddlepoint techniques lead to highly accurate approximations for Bayesian predictive densities and cumulative distribution functions in stochastic model settings where the prior is tractable, but not necessarily the likelihood or the predictand distribution. They consider more specifically models involving predictions associated with waiting times for semi‐Markov processes whose distributions are indexed by an unknown parameter θ. Bayesian prediction for such processes when they are not stationary is also addressed and the inverse‐Gaussian based saddlepoint approximation of Wood, Booth & Butler (1993) is shown to accurately deal with the nonstationarity whereas the normal‐based Lugannani & Rice (1980) approximation cannot, Their methods are illustrated by predicting various waiting times associated with M/M/q and M/G/1 queues. They also discuss modifications to the matrix renewal theory needed for computing the moment generating functions that are used in the saddlepoint methods.     

论江泽民的党性思维

自从党的十三届四中全会以来,江泽民就一直非常重视党的建设。而如何在新的历史时期加强党的建设,始终保持共产党员的先进性,江泽民对此有很多论述,强调要通过加强对广大党员的党性锻炼,提高党员的素质和党的战斗力和凝聚力。     

马斯洛需要层次理论对大学生树立正确恋爱观的启示

马斯洛需要层次理论对大学生树立正确恋爱观在理论和实践上都具有借鉴意义。     

A longitudinal study of depressiveness in children in public care

Rajhvajn Bulat L. A longitudinal study of depressiveness in children in public care Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 19: 412–423 © 2009 The Author, Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. The aim of this article is to analyse the challenges involved when making longitudinal observations of depressiveness in children raised in public care. The first measurement comprised 375 children from children's homes and foster families; however, most of the results are based on an analysis of the 139 children who participated in both parts of the research. We used the Child Depression Inventory and the anxiety/depression subscales of Youth Self Report and Child Behaviour Checklist as measures of depressiveness. The comparison of results from the first and second measurements showed that depressiveness in children in public care decreased over time. Children who grew up in children homes were, in the first measurement, more depressed than those living in foster families, but after five years that difference had disappeared. Furthermore, decrease in depressiveness is predominantly associated with less frequent delinquent, aggressive or hyperactive behaviour, less withdrawal and better control over uncomfortable emotions.     

《唐方镇文职僚佐考》增补

文职僚佐是唐代藩镇的重要组成人员,随着考古资料的增进,有关唐代藩镇文职僚佐的史料不断增加,将这些资料加以整理对研究唐朝历史将提供便利条件。     

读朱新天著《印度教万神殿艺术——印度王后井探秘》

朱新天博士的新著《印度教万神殿艺术——印度王后井探秘》,是她近20年来苦心研究印度艺术的结晶。该书已分别以中、英、法三种文字同时出版,在国际印度艺术研究领域产生了重要影响。     

金融危机下中国创业投资“囚徒困境”演化研究

创业投资家和创业企业家的＂囚徒困境＂是制约中国创业投资进一步发展的主要障碍之一。对短期利益的追求和缺乏信任是造成中国创业投资＂囚徒困境＂的两个重要原因。在金融危机背景下,＂囚徒困境＂的演化将朝着有利于创业投资家的方向发展。金融危机虽然能改变博弈的结果,却未能改变＂囚徒困境＂的成因。     

论魏晋南朝的忠孝实践——以阳翟褚氏为例

忠孝取舍孰先孰后在魏晋南朝时期有一个演变的过程,弃忠从孝是当时社会的趋势和需要。阳翟褚氏在这一时期屡屡背信弃义违背＂忠＂的道德却又信守家族＂孝＂的传统,是当时忠孝实践观的集中代表。     

简论语料库与教师角色之转变

现代电子语料库已有了近50年的发展,但语料库应用于课堂教学才刚刚起步。通过近年语料库辅助课堂教学诸多实践研究,教师们不仅可以获得教学中的例句,还可引导学生们学习更地道、更准确的表达方式。     

狄奥尼索斯的化身——对《在路上》主要人物迪恩的解读

借用尼采哲学中的酒神形象对《在路上》中的迪恩进行解读。尼采在《悲剧的诞生》中描绘了酒神和日神两种精神,酒神狄奥尼索斯的本质是旺盛的生命力,其内涵是摧毁和创造。《在路上》中的迪恩就是酒神精神的化身。在迪恩身上表现出的“疯狂”和“纯粹”,本质上是以身体的狂欢对一切压抑人性的制度和观念发起的强有力挑战,是对生命、对生活的激情和肯定。