基于产品深加工的决策分析

针对企业生产、销售中的决策选择问题，分析了提高产品的加工程度，可以提高产品的价格．增加企业产值收入，但同时也必然要追加一部分生产费用，追加的成本和取得的利润是否在经济上选择更合理这一决策过程。分析结果认为：企业的决策不能以一种产品的盈利来考虑，而应看提高加产品加工程度后企业的总利润是否大于以前的利润，从而进行综合评价和具体分析。     

Can better parenting be achieved through short prevention programs? The challenge of universal prevention through Strengthening Families Program 11–14

With the increase in substance use by young people in recent years' there has been a growth in evidence‐based programs aimed at preventing this problem. This study aims to assess possible changes in family and parental dynamics among families taking part in a short (6‐session) universal program. These changes might act as protective factors for families in preventing substance use. A quasi‐experimental design was used' with pretest and posttest evaluations. The participating schools meeting the inclusion criteria were randomly assigned to the experimental or control group. The sample was made up of 16 experimental groups and 17 control groups' with the participation of 353 parents and 289 youths. The results confirm the strengthening of the families by improving the following key components of parenting: resilience' involvement' family conflicts' and positive parenting. Reinforcing parenting skills through a short program is a good strategy to take' ensuring high levels of adherence (86.40% retention of the initial sample). Hence future universal prevention programs must not just set their sights on high levels of effectiveness' but also on efficiency.     

“学而”记疑

《论语》开篇“学而时习”之“学”应是动词“学习”。《论语》“学”共有66处,大多作“学习”解。以“学习”解读“学而时习”,更有助于把握《论语》的主旨:人贵在学,学贵在道、在取友,取友贵在忠恕,忠恕之道贵在教,“学”是贯穿始终的主线。     

甘肃省阿克塞哈萨克族民俗活动中的养生健身行为研究

宗教民俗活动中的某些礼仪礼俗 ,包含着对人体有益的养生健身行为 ,这些行为对全民健身有推动作用。本课题通过实地调查 ,探寻存在于甘肃省阿克塞哈萨克族民俗活动中的养生健身成分 ,并提出开发模式 ,为实施全民健身工程 ,构建面向民族聚居区的全民健身服务体系提供理论支持。     

Sample size planning for phase II trials based on success probabilities for phase III

In recent years, high failure rates in phase III trials were observed. One of the main reasons is overoptimistic assumptions for the planning of phase III resulting from limited phase II information and/or unawareness of realistic success probabilities. We present an approach for planning a phase II trial in a time‐to‐event setting that considers the whole phase II/III clinical development programme. We derive stopping boundaries after phase II that minimise the number of events under side conditions for the conditional probabilities of correct go/no‐go decision after phase II as well as the conditional success probabilities for phase III. In addition, we give general recommendations for the choice of phase II sample size. Our simulations show that unconditional probabilities of go/no‐go decision as well as the unconditional success probabilities for phase III are influenced by the number of events observed in phase II. However, choosing more than 150 events in phase II seems not necessary as the impact on these probabilities then becomes quite small. We recommend considering aspects like the number of compounds in phase II and the resources available when determining the sample size. The lower the number of compounds and the lower the resources are for phase III, the higher the investment for phase II should be. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

项目群构建中的协同效应潜能素质分析与预测模型

当前,投资项目选择往往局限于单个项目之间的比较,或止于项目组合的研究,而对于企业如何同时选取多个项目组建高协同效应项目群的问题研究较为缺乏.从企业整体的角度出发,阐述项目群的协同效应并分析影响项目群协同效应的潜能素质,建立项目群协同效应评价指标体系,提出项目群协同效应素质预测模型模型,以利于企业有效构建高协同效应的项目群并成功的实施项目群管理.     

Stranger-Danger: What do Children Know?

The current practice in many schools of educating children on how to keep themselves safe from abuse and abduction tends to concentrate on teaching them about stranger-danger and how to avoid it. However, recent research suggests that children may have difficulty in understanding the stranger-danger message (Mayes, Gillies and Warden, 1990). The present study examines 6-, 8- and 10-year-old children's understanding of the concepts of ‘stranger’ and ‘danger’ by analysing their verbal responses to videotaped sequences depicting child encounters with a variety of known and unknown male adults. Results indicate that, although there is some evidence of developing wariness, children at ages 8 and even 10 years appear still to be vulnerable to approaches made by strangers. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How context influences the ideologies and strategies of disabled people’s organisations: a case study from Cambodia

Abstract

Studies of disability movements have centred on exploring how movements have emerged and how their strategies have been devised to effectively advocate for the rights of the people with disabilities they represent. However, little attention has been focused on examining their organisational contexts and how they shape ideologies and choice of strategies, which have implications for the success of their advocacy endeavours. This article seeks to contribute to knowledge in this area by studying the case of a disabled people’s organisation in Cambodia. The resource dependency of disabled people’s organisations on international development partners results in their ideologies and strategies being driven by the latter. This has not only fragmented their resources, but also made their endeavours less relevant to the needs of people with disabilities. This may act to prevent such organisations from building a common ground for collective action, and from effectively pressing for social change.