财政扶持政策对西部地区农民参加新农村合作医疗的影响——基于自然实验的研究途径

本文将对西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的财政扶持政策的实施作为一个自然实验,应用微观经济计量方法分析了财政扶持政策对西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的影响。研究结果表明,与2004年相比,2006年西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的概率增加了96.46%,说明针对西部农民参加新农村合作医疗的财政扶持政策作用效果显著。     

Does media coverage influence public attitudes towards welfare recipients? The impact of the 2011 English riots

Following the shooting of Mark Duggan by police on 4 August 2011, there were riots in many large cities in the UK. As the rioting was widely perceived to be perpetrated by the urban poor, links were quickly made with Britain's welfare policies. In this paper, we examine whether the riots, and the subsequent media coverage, influenced attitudes toward welfare recipients. Using the British Social Attitudes survey, we use multivariate difference‐in‐differences regression models to compare attitudes toward welfare recipients among those interviewed before (pre‐intervention: i.e. prior to 6 August) and after (post‐intervention: 10 August–10 September) the riots occurred (N = 3,311). We use variation in exposure to the media coverage to test theories of media persuasion in the context of attitudes toward welfare recipients. Before the riots, there were no significant differences between newspaper readers and non‐readers in their attitudes towards welfare recipients. However, after the riots, attitudes diverged. Newspaper readers became more likely than non‐readers to believe that those on welfare did not really deserve help, that the unemployed could find a job if they wanted to and that those on the dole were being dishonest in claiming benefits. Although the divergence was clearest between right‐leaning newspaper and non‐newspaper readers, we do not a find statistically significant difference between right‐ and left‐leaning newspapers. These results suggest that media coverage of the riots influenced attitudes towards welfare recipients; specifically, newspaper coverage of the riots increased the likelihood that readers of the print media expressed negative attitudes towards welfare recipients when compared with the rest of the population.     

Theorizing the social: Émile Durkheim's theory of force and energy

This paper offers a new interpretation of Émile Durkheim's The Elementary Forms of Religious Life (1912) as the basis for reconsidering the Tarde–Durkheim debate of 1903 and the distinctions between a theory of social force and a theory of social assemblage. Resisting traditional interpretations of Durkheim's scientism, this essay traces how concepts of force and energy are centrally developed in Elementary Forms to draw new lines between epistemology to ontology for twentieth-century theory. I argue that Durkheim develops an ‘energetic epistemology’ that conceives of the human capacity for shared meaning as a product of invested energy in the form of continually enacted and evolving material practice, thought, and attention. According to Durkheim, when a member of a collective perceives a god or feels belief, he or she actually perceives the accumulated energy of on-going creation and maintenance of objects and ideas by members of a collective. Sacred objects, images, and ideas bear the trace of collective energy the more they are carefully crafted, maintained in spaces that are specially arranged, and written into behavioural codes. This reading of Durkheim allows us to consider him in a lineage of social constructivists and, particularly, in relation to Ludwik Fleck, who has been largely confined to different theoretical discussions when his contributions to sociology have been acknowledged at all. By reconsidering Durkheim, we have occasion to rethink his sociology and understand how he redrew the lines between thought and action, between epistemology and ontology, through the material framework of energy and force.     

千城一面——造城时代下的物竞天择

随着对城镇化质量的日益关注,媒体与学界对千城一面的批判愈演愈烈。然而,如果将城市看做是地球生态系统的一部分,遵循生物界优胜劣汰、适者生存的丛林法则,那么千城一面现象便是时代背景下环境选择的结果——特定的科技、经济、文化发展水平等客观属性,把在生存竞争中处于劣势的建筑形制与空间范式逐一淘汰,筛选出最符合时代需求与发展方向的特征传承下去。在理解千城一面的时代必然性的基础上,理性认识古典主义与现代主义、空间舒适性与独特性、空间使用者的主与客之间的辩证关系,才能走出"为批判而批判"的误区。     

胡塞尔生活世界的两种含义——兼谈欧洲科学与人的危机及其克服

胡塞尔所说的“生活世界”有两种含义:一是作为经验实在的客观生活世界,一是作为纯粹先验现象的主观生活世界,二者之间隔着一道先验还原的界限。不同意义上的“生活世界”与科学及人的生存的关系也不同:在胡塞尔看来,前者是近代科学产生的基础,也是造成科学“危机”与人的“危机”的根源;后者则有可能为我们提供一条克服这种危机的途径。     

中国自然利率的测算——基于SVAR方法

本文首先利用SVAR模型估计我国的自然利率水平,并在此基础上计算实际利率缺口,然后对实际利率缺口与通货膨胀率的关系进行研究。研究发现:我国实际利率长期低于自然利率;实际利率缺口与通货膨胀率负相关,实际利率缺口变大,通货膨胀率变小,反之则相反。分析表明,实际利率缺口作为宏观经济的重要指标能够反映通货膨胀的变化,利率政策制定部门应把实际利率缺口纳入到政策工具中。     

资本流动、外汇管制与人民币内外价值背离

近年国际资本大量流入我国境内,通过外汇管制渠道提高外汇储备,一方面造成外汇市场供给增加,给人民币带来升值的压力;另一方面,央行经常被动性购入外汇,造成外汇占款增多,在外汇占款日趋成为我国基础货币供应主渠道的情况下,我国货币供应量被动增加,超额货币供应成为推动物价资产价格上涨的资金来源,人民币内外价值日趋出现背离趋势。本文认为,外汇管制使基础货币被动放大,放松管制使汇率波动和波动预期提高,二者合并产生了当前的货币现象。     

Media Disaster Reporting Effects on Public Risk Perception and Response to Escalating Tornado Warnings: A Natural Experiment

Previous research has evaluated public risk perception and response to a natural hazards in various settings; however, most of these studies were conducted either with a single scenario or after a natural disaster struck. To better understand the dynamic relationships among affect, risk perception, and behavioral intentions related to natural disasters, the current study implements a simulation scenario with escalating weather intensity, and includes a natural experiment allowing comparison of public response before and after a severe tornado event with extensive coverage by the national media. The current study also manipulated the display of warning information, and investigated whether the warning system display format influences public response. Results indicate that (1) affect, risk perception, and behavioral intention escalated as weather conditions deteriorated, (2) responses at previous stages predicted responses at subsequent stages of storm progression, and (3) negative affect predicted risk perception. Moreover, risk perception and behavioral intention were heightened after exposure to the media coverage of an actual tornado disaster. However, the display format manipulation did not influence behavioral responses. The current study provides insight regarding public perception of predisaster warnings and the influence of exposure to media coverage of an actual disaster event.     

An Optimization‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards

This article proposes a novel mathematical optimization framework for the identification of the vulnerabilities of electric power infrastructure systems (which is a paramount example of critical infrastructure) due to natural hazards. In this framework, the potential impacts of a specific natural hazard on an infrastructure are first evaluated in terms of failure and recovery probabilities of system components. Then, these are fed into a bi‐level attacker–defender interdiction model to determine the critical components whose failures lead to the largest system functionality loss. The proposed framework bridges the gap between the difficulties of accurately predicting the hazard information in classical probability‐based analyses and the over conservatism of the pure attacker–defender interdiction models. Mathematically, the proposed model configures a bi‐level max‐min mixed integer linear programming (MILP) that is challenging to solve. For its solution, the problem is casted into an equivalent one‐level MILP that can be solved by efficient global solvers. The approach is applied to a case study concerning the vulnerability identification of the georeferenced RTS24 test system under simulated wind storms. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for identifying critical locations under multiple hazard events and, thus, for providing a useful tool to help decisionmakers in making more‐informed prehazard preparation decisions.     

Perceptions of Risk and Vulnerability Following Exposure to a Major Natural Disaster: The Calgary Flood of 2013

Many studies have examined the general public's flood risk perceptions in the aftermath of local and regional flooding. However, relatively few studies have focused on large‐scale events that affect tens of thousands of people within an urban center. Similarly, in spite of previous research on flood risks, unresolved questions persist regarding the variables that might influence perceptions of risk and vulnerability, along with management preferences. In light of the opportunities presented by these knowledge gaps, the research reported here examined public perceptions of flood risk and vulnerability, and management preferences, within the city of Calgary in the aftermath of extensive flooding in 2013. Our findings, which come from an online survey of residents, reveal that direct experience with flooding is not a differentiating factor for risk perceptions when comparing evacuees with nonevacuees who might all experience future risks. However, we do find that judgments about vulnerability—as a function of how people perceive physical distance—do differ according to one's evacuation experience. Our results also indicate that concern about climate change is an important predictor of flood risk perceptions, as is trust in government risk managers. In terms of mitigation preferences, our results reveal differences in support for large infrastructure projects based on whether respondents feel they might actually benefit from them.